Economic scenario

The post-pandemic and wartime economic consequences are spelled out as expected. The country, which is still the hegemon, sets the pace of the crisis. Measures taken during the pandemic to mitigate the slowdown in consumption and the economy as a whole, proposed Trump and followed him into the Biden administration They start to think.

On Wednesday the President US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, announced the approval of a 0.75 percentage point increase in the official interest rate, to a range of 3.75%-4%, this was the sixth interest rate increase of the year and the fourth in the last 5 months, reaching the highest levels since the first half of January 2008 in conditions of the global mega-crisis that has most affected this millennium.

At the press conference, Powell indicated that this would not be the last increase this year, as inflation data for October needed to be reviewed, and the Fed meeting and a new announcement would be made in early December, but Powell expects that “to determine the pace of future increases, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lag with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, as well as economic and financial development.”

These measures are due to the fact that inflation does not subside and, according to the latest data for September, the consumer price index was 8.2 compared to the same month in 2021. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4 percent from August to September. However, none of these measures improve the situation, according to Joseph Stiglitza well-known economist and Nobel laureate in economics, comments that these measures were insufficient: “Raising the interest rate will not create more food or more resources, but rather we will move industry and send it to other countries, which is what happened. in the United States, and it exacerbated the problem in the United States, it’s not based on good economic analysis, but on a chain reaction.”

So while the scenario is something very specific, the economy is not all right and there are no signs of improvement, quite the contrary. For our country, the forecasts do not differ from the world ones. According to Gerardo Esquivel, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Mexico, comments that we are in a better position than the US to achieve convergence with the 3 percent inflation target, but the realities of the daily life of Mexican families do not bring relief. We only hope that those six-year crises of change, like the crisis of 1995 or the global economic crisis of 2008, will remain a terrifying memory, and inflation and unemployment will be contained.

ADRIANA SARUR
[email protected]
@ASARUR

MAAZ