How the ruble exchange rate will change in August 2022

Many economists consider August is traditionally not the most successful month for the ruble. But in 2022, due to geopolitical upheavals, an unusual situation has developed in the foreign exchange market. Anti-Russian sanctions and the situation with energy resources are expected to have the greatest impact on the national currency. In the material REN TV Let’s share our forecasts on how the ruble exchange rate will change in August.

What will affect the exchange rate of the ruble

As statistics show, the ruble against the dollar usually goes down in August. This is due to the fact that the end of summer is the peak of the holiday season. To travel abroad, Russians change the ruble for other currencies, and it is weakening. One of the important factors behind the fall of the national currency in August is also considered the payment of dividends by Russian companies. The income received is exchanged for other currencies, which again negatively affects the ruble exchange rate.

Financial Analyst of FG “Finam” Andrey Maslov thinks that in 2022 both of these factors will not have a serious impact on the ruble exchange rate.

“Now the key factors of influence will be geopolitical risks, the energy crisis in Europe and the further aggravation of sanctions pressure. Given the current state of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it can be assumed that the effects of sanctions will penetrate deeper into the Russian economy, but most likely the result will be especially noticeable by winter, – the expert believes.

“Don’t expect major changes”

According to the analyst, the ruble passed its peak of strengthening after imports to Russia collapsed, while exports remained quite high.

“As for August, this month the rate will be in the corridor of 58-65 rubles per dollar. This is largely due to the reduction in gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 to 20 percent of the pipeline capacity, and the seasonality of the Russian export of metals and minerals, Maslov said.

Financial analyst, trader Artem Zvezdin is convinced that in August 2022 one should not expect strong changes in the ruble exchange rate.

“In the base scenario of soft pressure, most likely, we will see a price range of 55-60 rubles per dollar. In the event that risks are realized and Russian raw materials are abandoned, the dollar will rise in price to 60-63 rubles. the expert believes.

Non-standard situation

According to the forecasts of ARAVANA MFO co-founder Sergey Uskov, the dollar in August can move in a wide range to 53-65 rubles, and the euro – to 55-70 rubles.

“Previously, it was historically believed that August is the most difficult month for the Russian ruble exchange rate. This time, the year itself is atypical, so from August you can expect both a full range of surprises and completely neutral trading,” Uskov said.

Freedom Finance Global Financier Vladimir Chernov notedthat seasonality no longer has the same impact on the ruble exchange rate, as the surplus continues to increase due to falling import volumes.

The founder of Anderida Financial Group, Alexey Tarapovsky, believes that in the future a “ragged weakening of the Russian national currency” to the levels of 73-80 rubles per dollar is expected.