What will be the exchange rate of the ruble in September 2022

At the end of August 2022, global currency markets have crossed into a brighter phase, and the courses began to noticeably move. The ruble is also expected to change in September: experts talk about a trend towards a weakening of the currency. At the same time, the financiers did not manage to agree on how much the dollar would cost. Someone calls the bar at 60-63 rubles, while others estimate the US national currency at 70 rubles. Details – in the material REN TV.

The course for the weakening of the ruble

Analyst FG “Finam” Andrey Maslov noted that one of the main factors influencing the ruble exchange rate is monetary policy.

“Apparently, the Central Bank is trying to “test the waters” to weaken the ruble to levels comfortable for the budget of 70–75 per dollar. So, now it is possible to sell dollars received after April 9 to the population,” he said “Izvestia”.

According to the expert, over the past six months the decisions taken by the Bank of Russia have exceeded analysts’ expectations. He believes that the Ministry of Finance may resume foreign exchange interventions to weaken the ruble after the new budget rule is approved.

“In general, we should rather expect the ruble to weaken in the long term, since the export-oriented economy of the Russian Federation still needs a weaker currency to maintain a budget surplus,” the analyst said.

According to his forecasts, in September the ruble exchange rate will be about 65 per dollar and euro. But in general, in autumn it can fluctuate from 60 to 65 rubles per dollar.

TeleTrade Chief Analyst Mark Goykhman confirmedthat the weakening of the national currency is expected. This is necessary in order to increase budget revenues from exports. And the financial analyst of the CMS group of companies Vladimir Sagalaev added that in September the budget rule may return to the foreign exchange market – the state will buy the currencies of friendly countries. This will also play into the weakening of the ruble, the expert said.

How much will a dollar cost

Financial analyst, trader Artem Zvezdin believes that in September the dollar will cost about 60 rubles. Senior economist at Sinara investment bank Sergei Konygin expects the dollar to reach 60-62 rubles. Financial analyst Vladimir Sagalaev also believes that the ruble will weaken slightly and move into the range of 62-67 per dollar.

“If there are no unforeseen significant factors and shocks in the face of geopolitics and sanctions, then there will be no sharp volatility with the dollar-ruble exchange rate,” – he said.

According to Goykhman, the ruble is expected to weaken. He doubts that the dollar will fall below 57-59 rubles. The expert named 65-70 rubles per dollar as the upper limit of the course.

“However, events and triggers in the near future may be unpredictable in the current tense environment. Therefore, both up and down dynamics are possible,” he thinks.

PSB Chief Analyst Egor Zhilnikov thinksthat by the end of September the rate will rise above the mark of 65 rubles per dollar. Igor Rapokhin, an analyst at SberCIB Investment Research, disagrees with him – he predicts that the dollar may fall to 55-60 rubles.

What will affect the exchange rate in September

In early autumn, the ruble exchange rate will be influenced by many factors. Among them, experts name energy prices, exports, geopolitics and sanctions.

“The most important factors remain geopolitics, sanctions and the economic conflict with the West, including the” gas war “with Europe,” Maslov said.

One of the key factors financiers consider the transition to settlements in alternative currencies.

“Factors of de-dollarization of the economy, the transition to settlements in national currencies with partners in the near abroad and the BRICS, in the short term may contribute to the suspension of the growth of the dollar and the euro against the ruble,” says Natalya Milchakova, Leading Analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

According to Zvezdin, the national currency is also affected by world oil and gas prices. High energy prices support the ruble and allow filling the budget. However, the expert believes that “the effect of this will not be long and will last until the end of the year.”