2022 was certainly the most difficult year for Ukraine in a long time, but the economic crisis could have been much greater without the achievements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield and the active financial support of international partners.
By the end of 2022, Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 30.4%. According to the press service of the Ministry of Economy, the NBU and the government predicted the same level of decline in their preliminary forecasts.
The ministry states that in 2022, the Ukrainian economy suffered the greatest losses in the history of Independence. Reason: Russia’s total occupation of Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022 and continues to this day.
At the same time, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economy, the decrease in GDP in December was 34%, which is slightly better than the forecast for November (the decrease in GDP was 37%). Compared to the fourth quarter, the decrease is estimated to be 35.5%, given the stabilization of the situation with the energy supply after the November bombing.
“However, further terrorist missile attacks by the Russian Federation have caused damage (particularly to energy infrastructure) that is not critical, and this has continued to put pressure on the mood and activities of the business community,” the statement said.
Pre-war indicators: what would the Ukrainian economy be without the invasion of Russia?
In November 2021, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a draft law on the state budget of Ukraine for 2022. The main indicators included in the document were as follows:
- estimated nominal GDP of UAH 5368.7 billion, real growth – at 3.8%;
- consumer price index was 106.2%;
- state budget revenues will increase to UAH 1.267 billion, which is 17.8% more than realized in 2020;
- state budget expenditures will increase to UAH 1,441.9 billion for 2020, which is 11.9% more than the actual;
As a result, state budget expenditures due to the war in 2022 amounted to UAH 387 billion, and state budget revenues of UAH 243 billion (according to the results of 9 months of 2022). At the same time, inflation amounted to 29.5%.
What is GDP?
Gross domestic product reflects the market value of all final goods and services produced in all sectors of the economy in a year. The gross product index reflects the “cost” of the economy as well as how it is developing or deteriorating.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that one-third of the world economy will face recession in 2023. As IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva explained, the economies of the United States, EU and China are slowing down simultaneously, but the United States may avoid a deep crisis due to low unemployment.
same Focus Vahram Stepanyan, Permanent Representative of the IMF to Ukraine, noted that the major damage to the infrastructure negatively affected the economic situation. Therefore, for 2023, the IMF predicts that the real economy will shrink by a third.
Source: Focus
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