Focus He spoke with international employment expert Vasily Voskoboinik about how society should be prepared for the arrival of labor from Asian countries after the end of the war and how Ukraine will compete with the West for immigrants.
The Center for Economic Strategy (CES) published on March 21 the results of a study on the probability of Ukrainians returning to their homes after the end of the war. The MSK assumes that in the best case 861 thousand of our citizens will remain abroad, in the average scenario – 1.77 million and in the worst-case scenario – 2.67 million. In addition, about 2 million Ukrainians were forcibly deported. The Russian Federation and all will not be able to return for various reasons.
In a comment, he said there was already a staff shortage before the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. Focus Anna Vakhitova, professor at the Kiev School of Economics. According to him, in the future the problem will become even more concrete.
“Even before the war, we had a shortage of specialists in construction, and during the recovery period, when the need for such workers will increase, the shortage will be felt even more severely,” he stressed.
The professor’s opinion is shared by Vasily Voskoboynik, President of the All-Ukraine Association of International Employment Companies. in conversation with focus He noted that after the victory Ukraine should solve the problem of mass recruitment of workers.
“We will likely find ourselves in a situation where we will have the money to rebuild through international aid, but the question arises: who will be working?” The expert explains.
Go abroad
Today, Ukrainian men are mostly unable to leave the country due to martial law, but after the end of the war such restrictions will no longer apply. Economist and financial analyst Aleksey Kushch believes that if the fighting had ended within six months of the Russian invasion, more than half of the refugees would likely have returned to their homes. But due to the prolongation of the war, Ukrainian men are more likely to join wives in other countries than vice versa.
The main reason why Ukrainians try to look for work abroad will remain the same as before 2022 – a tangible difference in wages.
“In Ukraine, a truck driver receives 15-25 thousand hryvnia per month, and in Germany – 2-2.5 thousand euros per month. And this, unfortunately, will push people out of Ukraine after the end of the war,” thinks Vasily Voskoboynik .
Therefore, at the moment, Ukraine needs to think about who will work in construction when restoring the infrastructure that was destroyed after the end of hostilities. One of the most obvious options is labor migrants from Central Asian countries.
Immigrants from Asia: is Ukraine ready?
We are back in 2021 Focus He explained in detail that Ukraine will need foreign labor by 2050 due to the demographic crisis. A full-scale war only added additional factors to the overall picture. At that time, people also came to us from Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, and the Ukrainians welcomed the migrant workers very hospitably. Some collisions were the exception rather than the rule. However, it should be understood that there has not been a mass influx of foreigners yet. But Voskoboinik explains that when we talk about the restoration of Ukraine, the number of migrant workers can really matter.
In order to lay the groundwork for such processes, Ukraine lists the important questions to be asked in the circle of experts as follows:
- Are Ukrainians ready for the wave of migrant workers from Central Asian countries?
- Under what conditions should labor migrants come? Will the foreigners go with their families or can we just talk about a work visa for a year or two and then they will come back home?
- Are our law enforcement officers ready for a wave of immigrants?
- Is it possible for foreigners to acquire Ukrainian citizenship in the future?
Voskoboinik said: “This issue is the expert of the authorities, deputies, government, business, etc., only then we will be ready for the speedy restoration of the country in the face of the shortage of Ukrainian labor force.
war for immigrants
While Ukraine has not yet started a discussion about attracting migrant workers in society, Western countries are already seriously considering this issue. As Voskoboinik explains, the same Germany is determined to invite Central Asians for employment.
For example, it was learned that last summer, the German employment agency HS-Personal opened a German language center for migrant workers in Uzbekistan. Referring to government agencies, the company promised residents jobs in various fields after obtaining a B1 language proficiency certificate, according to media reports. Recruiters were specifically looking for truck and bus drivers, medical staff for nursing homes, employees in restaurants, hotels and amusement parks.
There will be only such offers in the future. Therefore, migrant workers looking for work will then be faced with the question of whether they should go to Ukraine, where salaries are significantly lower, or learn a foreign language and find a job in Western Europe.
Therefore, Ukraine should create its own net immigration policy, supported by legal documents, and consider the bonuses it can offer to foreigners.
Earlier, Vasily Voskoboinik also said FocusGermany takes care of Ukrainian children who go to the EU due to the demographic crisis and rapid population aging in the country. Accordingly, Berlin will try to ensure that Ukrainians stay in the country.
Source: Focus
John Holton is a seasoned author and journalist, known for his expertise in economics. He currently works as a writer at 24 news breaker, where he provides readers with in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest economic developments. With a background in finance and a talent for explaining complex economic concepts in a clear and accessible way, John’s writing is a must-read for anyone interested in staying informed about the economy.