How did the shadow tobacco market develop in Ukraine during the war, how much does the state lose because of it, and how will the shadow companies fill the gaps?
According to various estimates, the state budget of Ukraine loses up to 19-22 billion UAH per year due to the eclipse of about 20% of the cigarette market. to such results Focus “Bad habits. How much shady fuel, alcohol and cigarettes are in Ukraine and what to do with it,” in his new review.
For comparison, it was 20 billion UAH, which the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine plans to allocate in 2023 for the purchase of unmanned aerial vehicles for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The maintenance of the Security Service of Ukraine costs the state budget about UAH 22 billion in 2023. Annual forecasts of more than a million cities (excluding the capital) look more modest – for example, Lviv’s budget in 2023 is about 13.7 billion UAH, Dnipro – 15.5 billion UAH.
However, the 19-22 billion UAH lost due to illegal tobacco is not all of the losses from the shadow market of excise taxable products. Indeed, according to various estimates, 36-40% of the alcohol market is in the shade, so the budget receives less than 9-12 billion hryvnia per year. And the share of the shadow fuel market reaches 11% (UAH 10 billion per year). Well, Ukraine loses about UAH 38-44 billion during the year due to the shadow circulation of excise duty products (fuel, alcohol and cigarettes)..
For comparison: According to the Ministry of Finance, in February 2023 about 40 billion UAH was allocated from the state budget for social benefits (pensions, etc.). In January-April 2023, all solvency banks of Ukraine made a total net profit of UAH 44 billion. In the 2023 budget, UAH 38 billion was allocated for housing subsidies. That is, on the scale of Ukraine, the losses due to the activities of the shadow market of excise-taxed products are quite significant.
The main culprits in the tobacco market are well known. Oleg Getman, coordinator of the Economic Expert Platform expert groups, Focus says that during the shadow market research, the number of tons of raw materials ordered per year by all Ukrainian cigarette manufacturers was compared with the amount of tax paid by analysts. Thus, it was possible to learn that Legal honest producers pay around 3-5 million UAH in tax for each ton of processed tobacco, while shadow companies pay much less – sometimes just a few hryvnias..
Thanks to these simple calculations, the Economic Expert Platform team was able to identify eight shadow players and transferred information about them to the interim investigative commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (VSK). These are the following companies:
- Tobacco Dom LLC: taxes per tonne of UAH 8,000;
- LLC “Ukrainian Tobacco Production”: 26 thousand UAH. taxes per ton;
- OOO “Vinnikovskaya Tobacco Factory”: tax of UAH 1.31 million per ton;
- Tobaco Fermentation Plant LLC: 13 UAH per ton in tax;
- OOO “Imperial Golden Tobacco”: 0 UAH taxes per tonne;
- OOO “Potestas”: 35 UAH. taxes per ton;
- LLC “Empire. Tobacco. Ltd”: 157 thousand UAH. taxes per ton;
- OOO Combined Tobacco: UAH 2,000 taxes per tonne
According to Oleg Getman, at the VSK meeting attended by the heads of the National Police, the Economic Security Bureau and the Security Service, everyone received specific tasks and before the next meeting of the VSK is scheduled. By June 6, these eight producers and about 300 black trade points are required to conduct extensive checks and report the results.
According to Oleg Getman, violating production facilities are threatened by the repetition of the fate of one of the largest manufacturers of shadow cigarettes – a business in Zhovti Vody (United Tobacco LLC), whose work was discontinued in the fall of 2022. Retail outlets that sell illegal tobacco run the risk of going unlicensed. If the sale of cigarettes is made without a license in all black, a fine of 17 thousand UAH and all property will be confiscated.
Previously Focus He wrote that the Presidential office proposed to ban the sale of alcohol and cigarettes in exchange for money.
Source: Focus
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