War in the Middle East, the course and influence of monopolists: What will be the prices of gasoline and diesel in December?

There has been a loss of approximately 1.5 UAH per liter in gasoline and diesel fuel since the beginning of November. Thus, as of November 27, the average price of A-95 at gas stations in the country increased from 55.52 UAH/l to 54.37 UAH/l, DT – from 55.79 UAH/l to 54.33 UAH/l fell. The price of gasoline has been decreasing since the end of October, and the price of diesel has been decreasing since the second decade of November. On the other hand, automobile fuel prices continue to increase. Focus I found out what fuel prices will be in Ukraine in the future.

Global situation and dollar exchange rate: why are gasoline and diesel fuel getting cheaper?

The first reason for the decrease in gasoline and diesel prices in Ukraine is the decrease in the prices of oil and petroleum products in international markets. Thus, Brent oil dropped from a maximum of 98 dollars per barrel in September 2023 to 79.9 dollars. “This resource began to replace the resource purchased at previous prices. Gasoline and diesel were delivered for a month. Since storage is problematic today, After all, some oil depots have been destroyed, some are at risk due to war, and market operators are selling. “On Black Friday, chains offered discounts of more than UAH 8 per liter,” he said. Focus energy expert Leonid Kosyanchuk.

The second factor affecting the figures at gas stations is the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate. It is known to maintain stability. “We buy for money, clear customs at the exchange rate, sell for hryvnia. Then we buy money again and buy the next resource. Therefore, the hryvnia exchange rate affects pricing extremely quickly and sharply. Because we buy a resource twice a month, and weekly foreign exchange,” said the interlocutor Focus.

Important

However, the situation regarding autogas is reaching an impasse; The strike by Polish carriers blocking fuel supplies continues. And it is impossible to quickly redirect materials. “The sea has been taken away from us (Russian blockade – ed.), the western border is closed and you cannot transport much fertilizer by rail, because it also has its own problems – changing wheelsets, etc.,” the expert said. explained.

Price decrease in the short term, price increase in the long term: What will the prices at gas stations be?

Leonid Kosyanchuk states that gasoline and diesel are now in abundance. However, according to Dmitry Leushkin, director of the PRIME group of companies, the emergence of a shortage of diesel fuel cannot be ruled out. “Everything can start with diesel. And it will start suddenly, like last time. Everyone had it yesterday, but it will not happen tomorrow. This is a peculiar feature of the market,” he wrote.

The price of gasoline in December will be affected by both the external environment and the NBU’s policy. “It is very difficult to predict how the foreign market will behave and what kind of gift the Central Bank will put under our Christmas tree. After all, the oil exchange, the petroleum products exchange, is a financial and speculative instrument. Pricing in the exchanges is as follows: not to mention military actions, the upper hand of the states.” impressed by the statements of high-level officials, and today we see it burning not only in Ukraine, but also in the Middle East – the war between Israel and Hamas. But for today I see Potential decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by up to 2 – 4 UAHdepending on the network,” noted Leonid Kosyanchuk.

Important

The situation that developed with autogas could have been prevented. As a matter of fact, with the introduction of new requirements for the customs clearance of petroleum products, we ourselves have cut off the supply of this fuel through other means. “We ourselves blocked Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria by changing the customs rules, because you need to provide a certificate of origin from the manufacturer,” the expert believes.

Experts recommend behind such innovations can be seen the struggle for the liquefied gas market — Middle and small market operators are being squeezed by powerful players who do their own imports. “The gas situation has already shown what the policy of reducing and eliminating small importers leads to,” Leushkin said.

“Under the name of the fight against Russian resources, they made it difficult to pass customs procedures for liquefied gasbut the resources from the USA also come there. They can’t get through customs for weeks because propane and butane are supplied separately and it’s difficult to get a certificate of origin from the manufacturer – they don’t understand what we want from them and on the other hand it’s just a complicated procedure. Then our producers go to auction, where prices are about two hryvnias higher than the retail price. So there is no point in buying liquefied gas for two hryvnias instead of selling it,” Kosyanchuk said.

Thus, small operators who do not have their own production or imports have already started to shut down their pumps. Consolidation of operators will lead to increased fuel prices. “Monopolization of the market leads to unpredictable price conflicts. After all, it is easier to negotiate. That is, if today you can buy gasoline or diesel fuel from 48 UAH to 54 UAH, if you choose where it is better, then nothing will happen” definitely choice, ” concluded the expert.

Important

Let us also remind you that some gas stations have no liquefied gas left. The famine is caused by the blockade of the Polish border by carriers; Therefore, the Ukrainian fuel market is forced to reorient from road supply to rail.

Moreover Focus wroteAccording to Sergei Kuyun, director of A-95 Consulting Group, gasoline and diesel at Ukrainian gas stations will probably become cheaper in the coming weeks. According to him, the downward price dynamics are explained by the falling cost of oil and oil products on the world market.