Power outages cannot be prevented during the autumn-winter period. How long they last depends on many factors.
Already in the first week of November, the night air temperature will drop below zero in many regions of Ukraine, especially in Kiev. According to the Center for Combating Disinformation, this essentially determines whether Ukrainians will live under power outages for 12 hours a day or up to 20 hours. In the material “The heating season begins: what threats are there and will the heating be turned off” Focus Together with housing and communal services expert Oleg Popenko, he monitored the course of events in Ukraine and their impact on the heating situation.
Heating status and two winter scenarios
Let us note that according to the optimistic scenario, 8-9 nuclear power units in Ukraine should operate stably and not be afraid of frosts in winter. In this case, it will be possible to recover approximately 3 GW of the damaged 6 GW capacity. There are outages of up to 12 hours a day.
If the restoration is at a power of approximately 2000 MW, it is subject to operation of 6-7 nuclear power units and at -10°C in winter. In this case, the energy system may face a crisis.
In the worst-case scenario, if Russia continues its attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, citizens will have to spend 20 hours a day without electricity and heating.
If the restoration is at a power of approximately 2000 MW, it is subject to operation of 6-7 nuclear power units and at -10°C in winter. In this case, the energy system may face a crisis
According to the estimate of housing and communal services expert Oleg Popenko, With temperatures reaching -10°C in winter, Ukrainians will likely only have access to electricity for 12-14 hours a day, with the remaining 10 hours having to go without heat or light.
“If the air temperature drops to -10°C and lasts 3 to 5 days, this will pose a serious challenge to the heating season in many Ukrainian cities,” he said Focus Oleg Popenko.
Are apartments ready for winter?
The situation is aggravated by the fact that the multi-apartment stock is not ready for winter at all. Oleg Popenko noted: Due to the lack of major repairs in high-rise buildings, heat loss of up to 40-50 percent occurs at the beginning of the season.
In the worst-case scenario, this means the temperature in homes drops to critical levels.
Due to the lack of major repairs in high-rise buildings, heat losses of up to 40-50 percent occur at the beginning of the season.
“To save gas, the temperature of coolants in heating and electrical services and the supply to apartments will be reduced, which will cause the temperature in apartments to rise to 14-16°C.
It is clear that all universities and schools will be sent on long-term vacation. Electricity supply will also be a big question mark. After all, in addition to nuclear power plants, we can only meet our electricity needs with gas and a few hydroelectric power plants. At low temperatures, wind or solar are unlikely to provide the required volume. This means gas will be used to provide electricity. Therefore, according to the pessimistic scenario, we sit without heat and electricity. First of all, this applies to the front line and border areas.“, explained Oleg Popenko.
Do you have the opportunity to prepare for the winter on your own and what do you need in case of a power outage?
Experience from the winter of 2023-2024 shows that preparation for possible power and heating outages is critical. And the main thing is the desire of the housemates to unite. If not everyone is able to provide their homes with the necessary equipment in the event of a power outage or lack of central heating, it is possible to involve apartments or housing and communal services in the inspection and repair of networks.
“First of all, it is necessary to inspect the networks – electrical panels, hot and cold water networks, sewage systems – and carry out at least the most up-to-date repairs in the infrastructure of the house, so that later during freezing all this does not fail. Also ensuring that there are backup power supplies in houses above the 9th floor In case of a power outage, it should be possible to power the pump group and elevators that provide water and heat to the upper floors. “That’s what needs to be done right now, but it’s really quite difficult,” he said. Housing and communal services specialist Oleg Popenko.
We add that if you have individual heating, you should have the boiler, heated floors, heaters and air conditioner maintained. It may be a good idea to work with your neighbors to insulate the entrance and the house; pipelines should be insulated and all windows and doors tightly closed.
How Focus I have already reported that the heating season for residential buildings has begun in Kiev. However, it is impossible to quickly connect all apartments to heat, as it threatens emergency damage.
Source: Focus
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