US and Russia clash in Ukraine: conflict scenarios named

Against the backdrop of a special operation in Ukraine, relations between Russia and the United States continue to heat up. America fears an open military conflict between the major nuclear powers. AT article For Foreign Affairs, University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer predicted three possible scenarios that could lead to a military escalation between Washington and Moscow. Political scientists told REN TVwhether the fears are justified and under what circumstances this is possible.

Possible escalation scenarios

The professor believes that it may happen that the conflict in Ukraine will drag on for a year or more and the situation will reach a dead end.

“Most likely, Washington will try to end hostilities, perhaps because it will be more important for it to focus on containing China, or because huge spending on assistance to Ukraine will lead to serious problems in the US and Europe. In such circumstances, American politicians will be ready to go take riskier steps, such as imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine or deploying US ground troops to help Kyiv,” Mearsheimer writes.

According to the expert, Washington is likely to openly intervene in the conflict in the event of the complete defeat of the Ukrainian army. Kyiv, in desperation, may attack Russian cities, hoping that America will join the fighting.

“The Biden administration will want to try to prevent a Russian victory by all means. The United States can try to turn the tide by taking part in the hostilities,” the professor thinks.

Mearsheimer cites unintentional escalation as another scenario, because anything can happen during the conflict in Ukraine. The author fears that Moscow may retaliate with harsh measures if Lithuania blocks Kaliningrad again. He also believes that damage to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant could lead to irreversible consequences.

“The fighting in Ukraine could damage the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, to such an extent that radiation will spread to the entire region. This will prompt Russia to respond in kind. If Moscow strikes a European nuclear reactor, then the United States will certainly enter into a military conflict ,” writes the columnist.

“America is doing everything to prolong the conflict”

Political scientist Yury Knutov in an interview with REN TV said that a military escalation between Russia and the United States is quite likely.

“If we talk about the role of the United States, they are now actively participating in the military conflict in Ukraine, not only by supplying weapons. Moreover, the supply of weapons is practically unlimited, they already include the entire range, except for aviation so far. The remaining types of weapons have been sold to Ukraine, and now the personnel is undergoing training to use anti-aircraft missile systems and other systems,” he thinks.

Knutov said that the Americans are already participating in hostilities under the guise of members of international brigades – in fact, mercenaries. The political scientist added that the US military is present in many units as advisers and instructors. According to him, before leaving for Ukraine, many commandos wrote a report that they were supposedly leaving, although they retained their position. Under the guise of vacationers or retired military personnel, they come to Ukraine as volunteers, although in reality they are regular military personnel.

“Therefore, to say that the United States can intervene is quite reasonable, and, unfortunately, Washington is leading the way. Moreover, in the United States, a number of congressmen expressed the opinion that the conflict should continue throughout 2023. Otherwise, the economy will not deplete Russia, which means that the goals of the fight against Russia will not be achieved. Therefore, the United States is doing everything to drag out the conflict as long as possible and fight to the last Ukrainian, “- the political scientist believes.

“The US will avoid direct confrontation”

Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, believes that Washington is not interested in a direct military clash with Russia.

“In general, if you look at the history of American interventions, it is easy to come to the conclusion that in recent years and even decades, American society has been opposed to the direct participation of the United States in armed conflicts abroad. However, we cannot completely exclude this option, since escalation may be unintentional, he said REN TV.

“History shows that very often the United States was drawn into armed conflicts gradually – first through military assistance, then through the sending of some advisers, and in the end, as the example of Vietnam shows, it came to the use of hundreds of American military men. Of course, Russia “is a special case because it is a nuclear power. And in this sense, I think the States will be especially careful to try to avoid such a scenario. But I repeat that we cannot completely exclude it now,” – said the expert.

“The West is preparing for a conflict with Russia”

Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, believes that preparations for an open armed conflict with Russia do not stop in the West. He made such a statement at the 17th annual meeting of the secretaries of the Security Councils of the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

According to Patrushev, the situation around Ukraine speaks of the West’s attempt “to balance on the verge between hybrid actions and an open armed conflict with our country, for which they do not stop preparing.”

Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov noted that Washington and NATO countries are aggravating the situation, declaring the possibility of an attack on Russia from the territory of Ukraine. The diplomat called the situation extremely acute.

He stressed that the tasks of the special operation will be solved regardless of whether Europe plans to introduce new sanctions. Ryabkov pointed out that Moscow would not like an “iron curtain”, but the West is lowering it itself. According to the diplomat, this may present a problem, but Russia is a self-sufficient country.