“Wars between nations will increase further”…The mechanism of “fear” that leads to depressing scenarios[Akiei Iriyama, with audio]

The missile control room of the Strategic Rocket Force Museum, about 300km south of Kyiv, Ukraine.

This week, Professor Akie Iriyama of Waseda University Business School talks about issues based on management theory. I refer to the teacher’s book “Global Standard Management Theory”. However, this series can be easily read without this book.

It’s been almost a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The tragedy that occurred in Ukraine during this period has brought us back to the time when “wars between nations” were once thought to have receded after the Cold War. How will the world’s balance change in the future?

[Click here for the audio version](Playback time: 22 minutes 56 seconds)*Click for audio


Everyone was optimistic that there would be no more wars between nations.

Hello, I’m Akie Iriyama.

Last time, I talked about the waning of authoritarian states from the topic of the 10 biggest risks for 2023 announced by the Eurasia Group led by Ian Bremmer. I would like to continue to talk about related topics this time.

BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa

BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa

Last time, I talked about the increasing risk of authoritarian countries such as Russia, China, and Iran. Now that there is information on the Internet, internal control is not as effective as it used to be, and the inside is also rattling. Governance doesn’t work even if the dictator makes the wrong decision. In that sense, it was a story that the seeds of war are smoldering in various parts of the world.

yes. I’m sorry if I seem to threaten you,Since the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, it is likely that other regions have become more susceptible to war., I think. Let me tell you why.

The other day, I bought a book called “Ukraine War” by Mr. Yu Koizumi, a Russian military and security expert who I see on TV almost every day.

BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa

BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa

You read it.

Actually, I haven’t read all of them yet (laughs). However, I only read about 50 pages in the first half.

The book begins with Yu Koizumi’s story of a visit to the Soviet-era Strategic Rocket Force Museum in Ukraine before the outbreak of the conflict.

At the time the museum was built, Ukraine was still part of the USSR (Soviet Union). The museum was actually an intercontinental ballistic missile launch site at the time. In the era when the United States and the Soviet Union were glaring at each other in the Cold War, if a nuclear war had occurred, nuclear missiles might have been launched from here. But after the Cold War ended and Ukraine became independent, the base was no longer needed, so it became a museum.

According to this book, when Mr. Koizumi visited there, there was an unmotivated ex-military man who asked him, “Do you want to try pushing the button?” That button is a genuine, genuine nuclear button. Tourists can push it. You can also take a commemorative photo. It’s as casual as “Let’s push the nuclear button, too” (laughs).

That was in June 2019, so it was that peaceful until recently. Mr. Koizumi recalls, “At that time, it was thought that there would never be another war between countries.” There may be cyber terrorism and civil wars in the future, butIt was the conventional wisdom among experts in international politics that there should never be another war in which countries of a certain size fight each other with force.

But the war between Russia and Ukraine has completely shattered that.

Source: BusinessInsider

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