The missile control room of the Strategic Rocket Force Museum, about 300km south of Kyiv, Ukraine.
This week, Professor Akie Iriyama of Waseda University Business School talks about issues based on management theory. I refer to the teacher’s book “Global Standard Management Theory”. However, this series can be easily read without this book.
It’s been almost a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The tragedy that occurred in Ukraine during this period has brought us back to the time when “wars between nations” were once thought to have receded after the Cold War. How will the world’s balance change in the future?
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Everyone was optimistic that there would be no more wars between nations.
Hello, I’m Akie Iriyama.
Last time, I talked about the waning of authoritarian states from the topic of the 10 biggest risks for 2023 announced by the Eurasia Group led by Ian Bremmer. I would like to continue to talk about related topics this time.
BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa
Last time, I talked about the increasing risk of authoritarian countries such as Russia, China, and Iran. Now that there is information on the Internet, internal control is not as effective as it used to be, and the inside is also rattling. Governance doesn’t work even if the dictator makes the wrong decision. In that sense, it was a story that the seeds of war are smoldering in various parts of the world.
yes. I’m sorry if I seem to threaten you,Since the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, it is likely that other regions have become more susceptible to war., I think. Let me tell you why.
The other day, I bought a book called “Ukraine War” by Mr. Yu Koizumi, a Russian military and security expert who I see on TV almost every day.
BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa
You read it.
Actually, I haven’t read all of them yet (laughs). However, I only read about 50 pages in the first half.
The book begins with Yu Koizumi’s story of a visit to the Soviet-era Strategic Rocket Force Museum in Ukraine before the outbreak of the conflict.
At the time the museum was built, Ukraine was still part of the USSR (Soviet Union). The museum was actually an intercontinental ballistic missile launch site at the time. In the era when the United States and the Soviet Union were glaring at each other in the Cold War, if a nuclear war had occurred, nuclear missiles might have been launched from here. But after the Cold War ended and Ukraine became independent, the base was no longer needed, so it became a museum.
According to this book, when Mr. Koizumi visited there, there was an unmotivated ex-military man who asked him, “Do you want to try pushing the button?” That button is a genuine, genuine nuclear button. Tourists can push it. You can also take a commemorative photo. It’s as casual as “Let’s push the nuclear button, too” (laughs).
That was in June 2019, so it was that peaceful until recently. Mr. Koizumi recalls, “At that time, it was thought that there would never be another war between countries.” There may be cyber terrorism and civil wars in the future, butIt was the conventional wisdom among experts in international politics that there should never be another war in which countries of a certain size fight each other with force.
But the war between Russia and Ukraine has completely shattered that.
The source of power is “fear”
Now, here is my opinion. I’m not a political science expert, but when I apply the basic ideas and theories of this field, I can’t help but reach a certain conclusion. that is,”We’re back in a time when war between nations broke out again.”about it.
BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa
Why do you think so?
This is my understanding, but what is the fundamental psychological driver of human beings against war in the first place? For example, in business, it might be the desire to make money. For young people these days, social good, such as “wanting to contribute to the world” or “wanting to be useful to society”, can be the driver.
On the other hand, the biggest driver of war is simple, and this is written not only by me but also by Professor Hosono, a famous professor of international politics at Keio University, and it is ‘fear’.
Because people don’t want to die and they don’t want to lose their families. Furthermore, “The source of all power is fear’ is my understanding.
BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa
Fear……. What do you mean?
In other words, people cannot go against people who know that if they go against him, they will suffer disadvantages, be violent, or even be killed. That’s why those who can inflict fear on others have the power to manipulate them.
The reason why the state can arrest criminals and seize the property of people who don’t pay taxes is that it ultimately has violent devices such as the police, public security, and the military. Modern society is supposed to be governed by law, but fundamentally it is governed by fear.
That’s why we wage war to scare our opponents. On the other hand, deterring war is also fear.
In political science there is a concept called “realism”. This is the idea that even when countries are in a tense relationship, it is better to avoid war when each other has lethal weapons such as nuclear weapons. For example, if we kill each other with nuclear weapons, there is a possibility that each other will be destroyed. It would be too scary if that happened, so I think rationally and say, “Let’s not fight.” Realism refers to this way of thinking.
For example, the United States and the Soviet Union were glaring at each other during the Cold War, and there was the Cuban Missile Crisis, but in the end, there was no nuclear war between the two countries.that isBecause we were both just barely realistsis.
Should the Soviet Union fire nuclear missiles at the United States, the United States will of course retaliate. If that happens, an extraordinary number of people will die, and the country will collapse. We both knew this, so even if we threatened each other verbally, there was a tacit understanding that we wouldn’t actually do it. This is the so-called “Nash equilibrium” in economic game theory.
Because of the tense relationship that existed in such a situation, there were no full-scale wars between major powers in the last few decades. In other words, I think the fear of “if war breaks out, nuclear weapons will be used. If that happens, the human race will end.”
I knew that nuclear weapons would never be used.
Well, it’s been generally said so far, but here’s my derivative interpretation. What the Russo-Ukrainian War has made clear is that many countries have nuclear weapons, but nuclear war probably won’t happen, and it can’t happen. In other words, Russia poses as “shoot, shoot,” but they know that if they really shoot, they’re done. If you do that, a large number of nuclear missiles will fall from the United States and other Western countries.
That’s why we don’t use nuclear weapons, but we do kill each other using old-fashioned military equipment such as fighter planes. In other words, I think we are living in a world in which the use of nuclear weapons is against the rules, but wars that follow the rules are fine.
Until now, everyone was hesitant about going to war because of the fear of nuclear war, but paradoxically, I learned that it would rather not develop into a nuclear war precisely because many countries have nuclear weapons. As a result, it became clear that a normal war would be possible. I believe that a whole new era has begun. So, unfortunately, wars like those between Russia and Ukraine will happen in other regions as well.
BIJ Editorial Department Tokiwa
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Until then, I also thought that there would be no more full-scale war between nations, so when I saw the video of Russia invading Ukraine, I despaired, thinking, ‘Mankind has learned nothing from history.’ I remember
Continuing from last time, this year’s theme was not a very bright ending, but it is important to confirm the current state of the world with a broad perspective. Thank you, Professor Iriyama.
Akie Iriyama:Professor at Waseda University Graduate School of Business Administration (Business School). He graduated from Keio University Faculty of Economics and completed the master’s program at Keio University Graduate School of Economics. After working at Mitsubishi Research Institute, he obtained a Ph.D. from the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Business in 2008. In the same year, he became an Assistant Professor at the Business School of the State University of New York at Buffalo. Since 2013, he has been an associate professor at Waseda University Graduate School of Business Administration (Business School). He has been in his current position since 2019. His books include “What are the world’s management scholars thinking now?”
(Composition: Kiyoko Nagayama, photography: Takuma Imamura, serialization logo design: Mio Hoshino)
Source: BusinessInsider
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