meet in Ankara. Will Erdogan be able to bring Zelensky and Putin to the common table?

The intrigue continued a few days ago – whether Putin will go to Ankara. Some Turkish media suggested such a possibility, noting that the visits of the president of the aggressor country and Vladimir Zelensky could take place one after the other. Topics of conversation: Russia’s war against Ukraine and the “grain deal”. Soon, however, Russia will be represented at the inauguration by State Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, although Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, confirmed that Putin and Erdogan had agreed to meet in the near future. Kiev is still silent about Zelensky’s visit to Türkiye. Although experts suggest that the President of Ukraine will be present in Ankara.

“Special relationship”: Why does Putin call Erdogan a friend?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the presidential elections held in Turkey at the end of May. Racing was not an easy task for him. His closest rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, lost by a tiny margin of votes – only 4%. On the eve of the vote, the latter announced that Russia intervened in the vote. “Dear Russian friends, you are behind the montages, plots, Deep Fake content and recordings that were revealed yesterday in this country. If you want to continue our friendship after May 15, take your hand off the Turkish state. We are still in favor of cooperation and friendship” in Russian and Turkish. copied and tweeted on May 12.

As you know, relations between Türkiye and Russia at different levels are quite old and strong. And whoever ruled Turkey, they would remain so. Especially with Erdogan. They called each other friends over and over. In an interview with CNN, Erdogan said that he will continue to deepen relations with Russia and shared, “We have a special relationship with Putin.”

“Putin needs Erdogan now more than Erdogan needs Putin,” he commented. Focus Igor Semivolos, Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies.

First, the two countries are establishing economic ties. For example, since 2014, several pipelines have been built that supply Russian gas to Southern Europe. Now we’re talking about building a gas hub in Turkey, which will help Russia mix fuel and supply “goods” to European buyers. Or Russia is building Akkuyu, the first nuclear power plant in southern Turkey. In April 2023, nuclear fuel for this was already imported from the Russian Federation. And although Erdogan calls the construction a “major national project,” it is actually the result of an agreement between the governments of Turkey and the Russian Federation, and Russian giant Rosatom will operate it. The Turks, on the other hand, are trying to fill the niches created by the Russian aggression and the termination of business with the Russian Federation in connection with Western sanctions.

Second, Russia sells or may sell weapons to Turkey. The country, which bought the S-400 system from Russia in 2017, received a lot of criticism from NATO. When the US removed Turkey from the F-35 purchasing program, Erdogan talked about the possibility of acquiring Russian Su-35 fighter jets.

Third, Türkiye is helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions. For example, Wagner PMC had attempts to purchase military systems from foreign suppliers and ship these weapons through Turkey. This is stated in the “leaked” confidential documents of the Pentagon. In addition, experts say that Turkey can become an intermediary in the supply of secret technologies, electronics, chips and vehicle parts used for military purposes to the Russian Federation. In addition, oligarchs and government officials, for whom Russia has sanctioned, have property in Turkey that is not under threat of confiscation.

And of course, we should not forget that Russia helped Erdogan during the so-called coup attempt in 2016. At the same time, relations between the two countries began to improve significantly. It should be noted that they were almost hostile, due to the downing of a Russian Su-24 aircraft by Turkey in its airspace in 2015.

However, experts point out that despite such close ties and public statements, Erdogan and Putin cannot be called friends at all. In Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus and even the Balkans, human and natural resources are adversaries trying to fight for political influence. And Ukraine is also the subject of such a dispute.

Ukraine issue on Erdogan’s agenda

After Erdogan won the elections, President Volodymyr Zelensky was one of the first to congratulate him on his victory and said he looks forward to further strengthening the partnership.

Experts say that relations between Kiev and Ankara can be expected to remain business-like – Turkey will try to mediate relations with Ukraine, which will benefit itself.

For Turkey, the “grain corridor” issue is a matter of its own economic interests,” he says. Focus Political expert Maksim Dzhigun, — In the face of the declining economy, inflation and the depreciation of the Turkish lira, they need to stimulate the economy, and the grain corridor is helping to do that because most of the ships that export grain to Ukraine are Turkish. Turkey has the right to buy and resell Ukrainian grain for the first time and at a discount. This is a factor in Erdogan’s influence on African countries, where he later brought grain and appeared to be a leader who kept poor people out of hunger. It’s a dual interest.”

Ankara’s actions of the last nine years cannot be called anti-Ukrainian. Since the 2014 occupation of Crimea by Russian troops, Ankara has repeatedly stated that it will not recognize Ukrainian territory annexed by the Russians. Then he started to sell weapons to Ukraine – Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicles. After the start of a full-scale invasion, Turkey began to close the sea straits, preventing the increase in the number of ships of the Russian fleet in the waters of the Black Sea. Now the export of Ukrainian grain depends on this, and sometimes on the barter or release of Ukrainian prisoners.

What will Erdogan and Zelensky talk about?

On the eve of his inauguration, experts were of the opinion that Vladimir Zelensky should have gone to Ankara, because Turkey is an important country for Ukraine. In addition, during the event, not only Erdogan but also the leaders of other countries close to Turkey were interviewed. But in wartime, all such trips depend on security measures.

“Concerning Zelenskiy’s inaugural visit, we actually see a new chapter in this war start after President Zelenskiy’s visit to the United States. The President was not only on the spot and coordinating the defense process of the Ukrainian state, but also the defense process of the Ukrainian state. started doing it.” at the same time, realizing that the president’s personal visits are much more effective than phone calls and remote support of foreign leaders of Ukraine, actively participate in various forms of partnerships with foreign states,” says Maxim Dzhigun, “Personal communication is much more effective and multilateral, it can cover a wider range of topics. Therefore, it is a very realistic action plan for Zelensky to go to Turkey for Erdogan’s inauguration ceremony.”

He notes that this trip may be important because, since the start of a large-scale war, Vladimir Zelensky only communicated with Erdogan online, despite Turkey continuing to be one of the key international players in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. . “And because Turkey has remained neutral and Erdogan is building an intermediary mission and function. And because Turkey is actively involved in the implementation of the grain corridor,” he adds.

Igor Semivolos, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, said, “Zelensky will go, I don’t see any obstacles,” said: “Turkey is a very important partner for us. It is important for us to confirm that Turkey is ready for assistance in various fields.”, military-technical production, coordination and It changes within the framework of cooperation and work with Turkish experts and Erdogan’s circle within the framework of the coordination of foreign policy changes.”

In Ankara, Dzhigun thinks Zelensky can lobby not only for Ukraine but also for joining NATO.

“We understand that Erdogan has many difficulties in his relations with NATO countries and NATO itself – he is blocking the entry of Sweden. In fact, the only country that does this is Turkey,” adds the expert, “And here, Zelensky, as a highly visible figure. international platform can try to solve this problem or at least encourage Erdogan to be more compatible with Turkey in the context of collective incident relations There was a noticeable trend in Turkey, especially during the last election campaign, how Erdogan’s rhetoric has changed – very Western He was anti-American. He even said in one of his speeches that if he lost the elections, an American coup could be considered to have taken place in Turkey. Otherwise, let’s say, Western leaders of NATO have no opportunity to approach Erdogan. lobby for our own problems.”

Important

Overall, Zelensky’s trip to Ankara is an opportunity to convey to international partners that negotiations with Russia are possible without Putin, as he is not a legitimate subject of international politics.

“Negotiations are also possible only in conditions that Ukraine has determined to be acceptable to itself. That is, this is the final stage with the withdrawal of Russian troops out of Ukraine, and secondly, the non-freezing of the conflict, but the return of all regions without any compromise. And Erdogan, Ukraine’s position He has an absolute understanding of the subject,” adds Dzhigun.

Will Putin attend Erdogan’s inauguration ceremony?

Although it has been announced that Putin will meet with Erdogan, the details are not known. Experts suggest that this may not happen in Turkey, but in Russia.

You can see that Putin has not left the country lately – he last left in December 2022 due to a trip to Belarus. Volodin is going to Ankara, as mentioned earlier. Perhaps judging by the decision of the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for his involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children, the Russian leader is cautious. And even though Turkey did not ratify the Rome Statute and did not recognize the jurisdiction of the court in The Hague (unlike 123 countries), Putin still might not afford to leave.

“I think Putin is a personal security service. Things can be different depending on the arrest warrant. Nobody can now guarantee Putin’s 100% security outside of his own country. It’s also unclear how Putin will feel around others. The politicians who were ordered to arrest Putin and His entourage are so afraid that the Russian president will be ignored by everyone, that no one will communicate with him, trying to avoid not only a physical but also a nominal threat to their leader, adds Semivolos, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies.

As for the conversation, experts believe that nothing new should be expected from the meeting between Erdogan and Putin: Putin will put forward his traditional demands for Ukraine, which are not new. And this is the resumption of ammonia supply, the bank’s participation in the SWIFT system of Russian banks and negotiations with Ukraine on the terms of Moscow.

But Vladimir Zelensky repeated several times that there will be no talk until the Russians leave Ukraine. “Therefore, there is nothing to talk about objectively,” said Igor Semivolos, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies.