Victory at sea. How did Ukraine manage to regain control of the Black Sea region?

President Vladimir Zelensky compared the opening of air traffic at Boryspil Airport to the Black Sea.

“Boryspil is like the Black Sea. Its opening is a victory for Ukrainian air defense. This will mean that Ukraine has won. This is a very serious and strong economic step,” the President said at the last press conference.

He also thanked the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of National Defense and the Navy for such an important victory in the Black Sea. At the end of November 2023, Zelensky said that Ukraine had managed to seize the initiative in the Black Sea and ensure a state that now allows maritime export corridors to operate. Zelensky made this statement during the summit of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization.

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The grain corridor began its work at the end of summer, thanks to which it was possible to organize grain exports from Ukraine after the Russian Federation refused to continue the so-called “grain agreement”. Today, the grain corridor operates at full capacity, albeit with difficulties. Military-political commentator Alexander Kovalenko recalls that this was preceded by a long, step-by-step process that made it possible to drive the Russian fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.

“Their ships and boats no longer move far out to sea and do not interfere with civilian and commercial shipping. It is also not certain that they will not have to move further from Novorossiysk,” the expert says Focus.

Pavel Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, explains that the destruction of Neptune and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, the surveillance and early warning system and the use of naval drones allow access to free use of the Black Sea.

“Ukraine has anti-ship missiles, which confirms their effectiveness and efficiency. In the Navy, these weapons are considered a kind of deterrent weapon. We managed to destroy the enemy’s surveillance system. Let me remind you that these are surveillance and control equipment. They were located in the Boyko towers on Zmeiny Island, partly at Cape Tarkhankut. “Maybe we already have our own ‘eyes’ there,” he says. Focus.

The expert adds that missile attacks on enemy command posts and naval bases and attacks by naval drones led to the fact that the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were forced to disperse to the eastern part of the Black Sea. But the threat has not been eliminated; they can still perform their intended missions, although the risks have increased.

Since the beginning of September 2023, the Defense Forces have managed to destroy or damage a fairly significant number of enemy ships. It is worth remembering the Russian missile ship Samum, which was attacked by a naval unmanned aerial vehicle, a Serna-class boat, its crew and armored vehicles. On September 22, there was a missile attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Shortly afterwards, the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch, where the small missile ship Askold, the carrier of cruise missiles of the Caliber family, was located, was attacked. Against the background of the counteroffensive in the summer, which did not bring the expected results, Western analysts characterized Ukraine’s actions in the Black Sea as a major victory in 2023.

Russia returns launch vehicles to Black Sea

On December 20, for the first time in a long time, a Russian launch vehicle went on a combat mission in the Black Sea. By this time, they were either at their own base or at the naval base in Novorossiysk, away from the threat of Ukrainian navy drones. According to respondents Focus According to experts, this exit does not mean that the enemy has managed to bypass the threat of the Ukrainian unmanned naval fleet and can feel free on the high seas. According to Lakiychuk, such a step is most likely connected with the change in Russia’s tactics of using missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. If earlier we observed that missile launches from ships and boats were accompanied by an attack by strategic aircraft, now the enemy has switched to the tactics of ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. The expert notes that what went on the mission was not a surface ship or boat, but a submarine.

“The Varshavyanka submarine went on a combat mission. This has its pros and cons. As for the pros, the submarine is armed with four to six cruise missiles, unlike corvettes and frigates, the number of which reaches 8-16 missiles. The disadvantage is that we, Lakiychuk, cannot observe their entry into the positional space and air defense He stated that his forces could only detect missile launches when they entered the flight path.

According to him, the Russian command may also order an attack on Ukraine from the Eastern Black Sea, the operational range of cruise missiles allows this.

Prospects for the development of the Ukrainian Navy

In the alliance’s new strategic concept, the Black Sea is defined as a region of geopolitical importance almost for the first time. At the initiative level, the Ukrainian side proposed that NATO make the Black Sea its inner region, as in the Baltic Sea. Focus I have said before that the attention of maritime NATO member countries is gradually turning to the Black Sea region. At the end of October 2023, it became known that three NATO member countries were discussing the creation of a special unit to clear the Black Sea from mines that fell into its territorial waters due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, we are talking about Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria. Previously, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukraine was preparing for a mine operation in the region together with its Alliance partners.

Important

On December 13, it became known that the Maritime Coalition of Great Britain and Norway was formed to support the Ukrainian Navy and gain advantage in the Black Sea. The first step was the transfer of two Sandown minesweepers, several dozen Viking amphibians and high-speed boats. Additionally, a 10-year security agreement between the UK and Ukraine is expected to be signed within a few days.

Alexander Kovalenko reminds us that even before the large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation began, we had a number of agreements on fleet issues with Great Britain. At that time there was talk of joint production of small missile boats and the UK gave us the Sandown minesweepers. It is also worth mentioning the £1.6bn loan for the construction of eight missile boats.

“We have joint projects on the training of Ukrainian naval crews and naval officers, so that the Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine will gradually integrate with NATO to common standards. Although Norway does not have as strong a fleet as the UK, it has developed shipbuilding, naval technologies, armament and missile technology. “In total, this cooperation will significantly strengthen the Ukrainian Navy. But all this will happen only after the end of the war,” says Kovalenko.