Russian offensive is exhausted by 70%: what is happening in the Kharkov region and Volchansk

“Russia’s Victory Day (May 9 – Ed.) offensive was intended to capture a large and deep swath of territory in order to bring heavy artillery closer to Kharkov and even advance on the city. Neither of these happened. By the time the offensive began a few weeks later on May 9, some 30,000 Russian soldiers were trapped in the town of Volchansk, just a few miles south of the border,” Forbes writes.

Volchansk: Russian army wipes out city from the face of the earth

Sirens and explosions can be heard day and night in the city of Kharkov, just 40 kilometers from the Russian border, where Russia launched a major offensive in May.

For more than a month, the situation in the border area of ​​the Kharkov region has changed several times. Immediately after the attack, experts were worried that the breakthrough could threaten a ground operation extending to Kharkov, but the rapid transfer of forces and equipment and the provision of new weapons supplies by international partners managed to stop the attack. It was also important that the deteriorating conditions on the battlefield forced the US to allow Ukraine to use artillery and missile systems provided by the West to attack Russian territory. After that, the attacks on Kharkov decreased, but the months-long S-300 missile campaign was replaced by equally regular guided bomb attacks. Therefore, although the pressure from the Russian army has decreased in recent days, there are now clashes on the border.

The hottest fighting is taking place in Volchansk. Soldier Alexander says, “This is a city that the enemy wiped out very quickly and persistently, Volchansk was unlucky, it is very close to the border with the wildlings who decided to create a buffer zone there.”

The situation in Volchansk is changing every hour, so it is not yet possible to give accurate information about the combat situation. This is how he answered the question Focus military expert Petr Chernik. He does not comment specifically on the data on the stay of Russian soldiers on the territory of the aggregate plant in the central part of the city.

Important

Meanwhile, a June 26 report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had regained some of the recently lost ground in Volchansk. Geolocation imagery released on June 25 showed Ukrainian troops advancing along Soborna Street in the city center. And Russian soldiers at the facility may either surrender or suffer heavy losses.

In general, fighting continues in the north-east of Kharkov – not only near Volchansk, but also in Tikhoy, and in the north of the city – near Liptsy and Glubokoye.

Petr Chernik explains: “First of all, a bridgehead, albeit a small one, has been created. This is a partial success for them. Secondly, the massive offensive that began to boil in the Kharkov region a few weeks ago has significantly diminished. Thirdly, it is unpleasant for them. They have begun to dig into this small bridgehead.”

The enemy pulled Ukrainian troops from the south and east, these are combat-ready brigades, thanks to them they managed to stop the offensive.

Predicted movements: whether the enemy will advance or not

The Russian Federation is increasingly transferring forces to the Kharkov region. According to the representative of the Kharkov group of Ukrainian troops, Colonel Yuriy Povkh, the Russians plan to use the 9th motorized rifle brigade of the 51st army. Also, the representative of the Ukrainian Khortytsia group of forces, Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshin, noted that Russian troops plan to transfer units of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet to the Kharkov direction to compensate for significant Russian losses.

And the losses of the Russians are truly great. Experts note that it is impossible to quickly replenish them – even the redeployment of the 155th Marine Brigade does not pose a particular threat, since this brigade suffered heavy losses at one time near Ugledar and has fewer trained fighters in its composition, the majority are newly mobilized.

“The Russians are unlikely to accumulate the potential of at least one mechanized brigade, which should overcome the battalion tactical formations: except for the already formed ones, so far 3 kilometers wide and 5 kilometers deep. bridgehead, they have no breakthroughs,” says Peter Chernik, – if you do not destroy the borders of the Russian Federation, almost 80% of the troops have already been redeployed from the Far East, exposing its strategic borders, this is important for us Russia will mobilize 30-32 thousand every month, we destroyed 39 thousand, and in June 34-35 thousand. There are not enough people in the Russian Federation at this rate of mobilization, so they can only disperse them. and they will not be able to do it quickly.

According to Chernik, since October 7, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order to go to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, after which a new Russian offensive began, which has not stopped to this day. And the Kharkiv region is one of the directions.

“This offensive is 70 percent exhausted. The Russian Army is actually still in an offensive, but we have seriously improved our artillery performance. In January, the force ratio was 1 to 5, now it is already 1. Yes, there is a difference between the two shells, and it is very much, but with the increase in assistance, we can recapture the Kharkov bridgehead until the dry weather continues, and at the same time we cannot underestimate the enemy. The so-called Surovikin line in Zaporozhye showed that the enemy is digging very seriously, and in the future it really works,” he adds.

But the attacks of guided aerial bombs (CAB) complicate the situation even more; although they do not fly as far as ballistic or cruise missiles, they are no less destructive. It is impossible to shoot them down, it is necessary to eliminate carrier aircraft of the Su series. And they can be shot down, especially by F16 aircraft or by attacking airfields that require permission to use ATACMS.

The S300 bombardment of the border zone has decreased. As already noted, due to the permissions received, to attack the territory of the Russian Federation with Western weapons. “But the Russians are now restructuring the systems. Previously, they launched missiles from a distance of 50-70 kilometers. These missiles travel at a speed of 9,000 km / h. That is, it was almost impossible to hit them, and now they are thinking about how to act from a greater distance,” the expert explains.

Additional forces to control the Russian Federation

But Russian troops still have the potential for a new breakthrough and potential areas for it. And many signs point to this. And only the enemy regrouped in the Belgorod region and redeployed some units there for reinforcements.

Experts say the Ukrainian army still faces a shortage of weapons, especially long-range weapons.

“We do not have enough weapons. The personnel is relatively sufficient. We need as many long-range weapons as possible. This is the main reason for the prolongation of the war. If they had given us 600 ATACMS, the F16 would have started. We understand that they have an advantage many times over, but at the same time, the “second army of the world” has not been able to break Ukraine for three years. Because we have intelligence, motivation and high-quality weapons. But high-quality weapons are not enough,” adds military expert Pyotr Chernik.

Another military expert, Ivan Stupak, said that it is still difficult to predict the actions of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region. In fact, there is a decrease in pressure, but whether they will resume the offensive depends not only on the situation on the front lines, but also on the situation at the negotiating table.

“Could they try to reach the outskirts of Kharkov? They could. Could they open a third direction in the Kharkov region? They could. Could they occupy parts of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions? They could. To divert attention. In principle, they did not achieve the great goal of capturing Volchansk, reaching Kharkov, cutting off our communications with Kupyansk. But the minimum task of expanding our forces was completed. At the same time, the Russians continue to actively press in the east,” he says. Focus.

Politically justified

Obviously, the attack on the Kharkov region is also an attempt by the Kremlin to make political gain.

First, Putin is trying to fulfill the order of the Russian army to enter the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And he will not succeed either before his birthday in October 2023, or before Victory Day in May 2024.

“Even for their super-propaganda machine, this is a very sensitive slap in the face. They had to change their accent. If they had raised the tricolor in at least one village in the Kharkiv region, they would have presented it almost as a Berlin operation,” Chernik said.

Secondly, the Kharkov operation was necessary for the Kremlin on the eve of the Peace Summit in Switzerland. It was necessary to show that the Russian Federation wanted to have a permanent advantage on the front.

“If they really managed to reach the borders of Kharkov, then do not forget that Kharkov, despite the attacks from the sky, remains a major military center for the Ukrainian army. There are radio-electronic stations, electronic warfare systems, armored vehicles. All this is a target for the Russians. Also, imagine that the Russian Federation will start to leave Kharkov en masse; this will deprive the workers of the front-line city,” he continues.

Third, it is politically advantageous to create an atmosphere of fear – not just because of a new offensive, but also because of the threat of, for example, the capture of Kharkov.

“If the troops approach Kharkov by 15-20 km, it will be critical, Kharkov will be destroyed, all ongoing work processes will stop. Without money, there will be nothing to pay salaries. In addition, such actions will threaten to cut off our communication with Kupyansk and Liman, which will bring us closer to the administrative borders of the two regions. This was a plan that has failed so far,” says Ivan Stupak.