The deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine is seen as a way to deter Russian aggression. So will this be a guarantee of security or will it lead to new tension? Political scientist Oleg Posternak explained Focuswhat risks and opportunities this decision may have.
Political scientist Oleg Posternak in the comments Focus He explained that the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine is considered as a means of containing Russia and its possible future aggressive actions.
“Russia could not achieve all of the targets it set for 2022, but it continues to plan. Knowing Ukraine’s desire to take back its territory, Ukraine will prepare for new aggressive steps to avoid such a scenario in the coming years until it joins NATO. Posternak noted that the idea of deploying peacekeeping troops seems quite feasible, it could become a temporary security guarantee.
He explained that such forces could be deployed on the front lines or on the borders of Belarus and Russia, where active hostilities are not currently taking place. At the same time, the rights and responsibilities of peacekeepers will be determined according to the mission’s field of duty.
“If this is a UN mission, these are the same rules, if the OSCE is different, then this will require separate agreements between Ukraine and the participating countries. Such decisions must be approved by the Verkhovna Rada. With a clear definition of the conditions, principles and deadlines of stay of foreign troops,” the political scientist added.
However, Posternak does not ignore the risk of attacks on Russian peacekeepers. Moscow may consider the scenario of a direct attack on these forces. Considering Russia’s previous threats against NATO countries, acts of sabotage, and incidents involving drones and missiles in Poland and Romania, it is difficult to predict that the aggressor will hold his own.
According to the expert, an attack on peacekeepers representing NATO countries could theoretically be interpreted as an attack on the Alliance and trigger the consultation mechanism under Article 5. But this does not guarantee a collective response.
“Article 5 is a mechanism with some nuances. For example, the United States may not find it appropriate to include all its allies, which will limit NATO’s actions,” Posternak said.
The political scientist also noted the possibility of discussing options regarding security guarantees for Ukraine. According to him, we can talk about bringing military units from NATO countries without UN authorization, which would be a completely different approach.
“But there is no guarantee that Russia will not attack the peacekeepers. If we see this as a workable option, then we will have to change the Ukrainian Constitution, which prohibits the placement of foreign military bases on state territory,” Posternak said. .
Read more about the possibility of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine in the material Focus “European peacekeepers in Ukraine: what they will do and where they will stand.”
Let us remind you that French President Emmanuel Macron came to Warsaw on December 12 to discuss the geopolitical situation, the war in Ukraine and cooperation with the Polish leadership. The media reported that Ukraine would allegedly hold negotiations on the creation of a stabilization military unit.
In response, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishyna said that Ukraine is ready to engage in dialogue on the admission of foreign troops.
Source: Focus
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