Drones, AI, cyberattacks: what lessons has the world learned after a year of war in Ukraine?

The last year of hostilities on Ukrainian soil has become a “lesson learned” for democracies around the world trying to understand how not only strategies but also technologies can evolve in the future. Focus It describes what military analysts expect when it comes to future armed conflicts.

Artificial intelligence and cyber attacks – a new military trend

Military analyst Peter Singer writes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine widely use new technologies, which, although they do not radically affect the course of hostilities, nevertheless become a reference point for tracking the trend in the technological development of the military-industrial complex. colon.

The first thing worth mentioning is the widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI), namely: facial recognition software to identify Russian soldiers, machine learning (ML) algorithms to increase the efficiency of military and volunteer logistics, intelligence and information warfare.

“As artificial intelligence is already of great importance to society today, the use of neural networks with various functions will gain momentum. No other technology field today is funded as actively as artificial intelligence and MOD. National governments and, as a result, neural networks for the armed forces as well as large enterprises. is interested in its development,” the author claims.

The second important point is that cyber security has become a new front in this war. At the beginning of the conflict, Russian hackers tried to attack various Ukrainian network systems, from power grids to space communications. However, they did not succeed like the Russian Armed Forces. And here the author sees two main reasons:

1. Putin did not prepare neither the army nor the hackers for the war he had planned.
2. Ukraine’s cyber defenders managed to cope with most of the attacks.

Cyber ​​warfare also did not radically affect the course of the war, but let’s imagine what a group or military unit could do in the future, more organized, prepared, with up-to-date intelligence and planning tools to attack. A target as big as the infrastructure of all countries.

“Cyberattacks are the future of war. We are becoming more and more dependent on the Internet and the devices that now control operations in almost every area of ​​critical infrastructure depend on it. So there are more targets for cyberattacks as well.” However, cybersecurity is thrown aside too often. As a result, the Internet of Things, on which we rely more and more, is becoming very vulnerable. Attackers will take advantage of this,” writes Singer.

Drones: new – forgotten old

UAVs were used during the Second World War in the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, Pakistan and Libya. But some military experts felt that drones weren’t that important in “conventional” warfare, meaning drones were good in definitive confrontations with terrorists and insurgents.

“This academic and military debate is over. Unmanned systems have proven to be incredibly important in conflicts in Ukraine, in various roles and even in the fields. They have played a decisive role in intercepting Russian tanks’ columns, ensuring the high accuracy of Ukrainian tanks.” While attacking the Russian naval bases in Crimea, the expert carried out artillery and missile attacks at sea that sank the Russian flagship Moscow.

Many different systems have filled the battlefield: from large, expensive military-grade UAVs to thousands of small commercial quadcopters. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces use unmanned aerial vehicles not only for reconnaissance, but also for attack and firing adjustments. Thanks to the integration of AI with drones, the Armed Forces are increasingly deploying autonomous systems, using drones, and loitering munitions that act both alone and in swarms.

“Drone wars talk about how future conflicts will be and how big the role of drones in these wars will be,” the expert summarizes.

Open data intelligence and social media as a weapon

Another area where long-standing technology is reaching new heights in 2022 is the use of social media as a weapon.

“Cyber ​​warfare means hacking networks, but deep scams mean ‘hacking’ people by spreading information through likes and reposts,” the column says. “In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, information warfare has reached a new level of strategic importance.”

One of the important aspects of information warfare has become intelligence based on open source analysis (OSINT). Ukrainians have turned their mobile phones and social media accounts into a new “spying tool”, collecting bits of information and transmitting them to the military and the media.

Thanks to OSINT, the world learned that Putin lied when he said Russia was “only reacting to an emergency” and was not planning an invasion, which ultimately undermined his political strategy. In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine received OSINT data from literally thousands of local residents and unlucky Russian soldiers who shot tik-toks and gave their location to monitor the actions of the Russian army.

The dissemination of information about what is happening in Ukraine in full real time has made a huge impression on foreign audiences. Sympathy for the Ukrainian people has changed the political context and priorities, from the US to Japan to Australia. The controversy over Germany sending tanks to Ukraine in recent months (eventually due to a change of attitude towards Ukrainians) shows that it took a year for Germany to “reshape” its 75-year-old foreign policy.

Economic war and the role of IT companies in this war

Russia’s war against Ukraine also had a strong economic impact. About 400 of the world’s 500 largest companies (including a large number of IT companies) left the Russian market, not because it was required by law or sanctions, but because doing business in Russia meant a bad reputation. In the long run, such a new “geopolitical cancellation” will affect not only Russia’s economy, but also how it thinks about the economies of other countries during the war. And the author is sure that this could be one of the most important consequences of future wars.

According to the IMF, the first major conventional conflict of the 21st century in Europe occurred between the 9th and 56th largest economies in the world. The devastation, from energy markets to supply chains, was enormous, not just for the warriors themselves, but for the entire world. Russia felt the impact when it was forced to remove microchips from old refrigerators and washing machines, suspend not only 5G, but also 4G networks, slow down mobile traffic, and be deprived of high-quality tools without updating various software. and consumer electronics.

“Both Washington and Beijing must now rethink the links between national and economic security and how they have been affected by the war,” Singer said. said.

The Ukrainian state and society did not collapse as the Kremlin had hoped in the early days of the war. According to opinion polls, 70% of Ukrainians believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will win the war, despite less equipment and manpower compared to the RF Armed Forces.

“Human will is important in war, and the digital world has proven to be a valuable new way to reach and mobilize that will,” the author writes.

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