Russia will be able to produce 6,000 Shahed drones per year: what is the danger for Ukraine and NATO?

The Russian Armed Forces will receive thousands of drones, as the company plans to produce about 6,000 aircraft per year.

In Russia, they will establish a factory for the production of Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones. Research organization James Foundation evaluated the strategic implications of such a project.

In the fall of 2022, the Russian Armed Forces began using Iranian-made kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine, including attacks against critical infrastructure. And at the beginning of 2023, information appeared that a factory for the creation of such UAVs could appear on the territory of Russia, possibly in the city of Yelabuga in Tatarstan, which will produce about 6,000 aircraft per year.

The production will give the Russians access to a large number of kamikaze drones and increase the pressure on Ukrainian air defense systems and other military structures. This is much faster and more reliable than the delivery of UAVs from Iran, given the sanctions and the complexity of the logistics. Also, with such a technical base, it will be easier for Russia to procure spare parts and repair defective UAVs. It is likely that the factory will initially assemble the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones, which the Russian army already uses, but in the future the production facility will be expanded with modifications or other models with higher speed and range.

The proposed facility for production in Yelabuga is located near the Kama River, which is interesting given Iran’s tendency to build its most important defense facilities, such as missile production in Tehran, Parchin and Baniyas, near a water source. Soon it will be possible for the Russian factory to produce rockets in addition to unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition, the company will expand Iran’s already extensive industrial network, including factories in Tajikistan, Syria and Venezuela, and open new supply channels through Russia.

The creation of a joint venture for the production of UAVs will significantly strengthen relations between Russia and Iran, which can lead to a full-fledged partnership in the field of defense. In addition, the emergence of an Iranian factory in the Russian Federation will lead to the emergence of large military complexes in the immediate vicinity of NATO countries, creating a great danger to the eastern flank of the Alliance and the access of the Russians. to longer range drones than the current Shahed. For example, Russia could hand over advanced Western weapons systems seized in Ukraine to Iran, which in the long run could deprive NATO of technological superiority.

In January, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that Russia plans to start production of Shahed drones. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the attempt should appear in the city of Togliatti, in the Samara region.

In early February, information emerged that Russia and Iran were discussing building a factory in Yelabuga. The Iranian delegation has already studied the area in the Russian city and discussed with Russian partners the creation of a faster UAV.

Source: Focus

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