A flock of “Shaheds” against Ukraine: Russia’s new horror story or a real military threat?

Groups of attack drones flying in a coordinated manner towards a target could overload the air defense system, but the technology would significantly increase production costs.

The Guardian, citing a military source in Ukraine, reported that Russia has developed an artificial intelligence system so that Shahed drones can fly in swarms, exchange data and coordinate attacks by bypassing air defenses. Andrey Shtepa, co-owner of AirUnit, a developer and supplier of leading solutions in the field of using and combating UAVs, said: Focus how dangerous it is and what can be opposed.

Why are flocks of martyrs dangerous?

First of all, he noted that not a single Russian air strike on Ukrainian territory was possible without intelligence data, that is, the work of enemy reconnaissance drones, agents and satellites. The number of martyrs and missiles is limited, so the enemy must carefully choose the targets to hit with such precision weapons.

Shahed’s main danger lies in its low cost, powerful warhead and well-tuned inertial navigation system. Additionally, the Russians began flying large numbers of non-explosive drones imitating the Shahads and designed to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses during major attacks. One of the most recent attacks involved 188 UAVs, most of which appeared to be fake targets. They are much cheaper than Shaheda but hard to tell apart.

You may think that a large number of UAVs launched at the same time is a “swarm”, but in fact this term combines different approaches, so it is worth being more specific. Andrey Shtepa suggested thinking of a “swarm” as a group of unmanned aerial vehicles that coordinate their actions autonomously or through centralized control to achieve a common goal. Groups of UAVs controlled in real time or thanks to artificial intelligence can significantly increase the effectiveness of attacks.

Drones in a swarm can exchange information in real time by adjusting the route and distributing targets. This will make it possible to bypass air defense systems, distracting one part of the aircraft and directing the other to key objects. In “manual mode” this allows, for example, the flight program, targets, modes and altitude to be changed. The swarm can attack multiple targets simultaneously, overloading air defense systems.

It is known that the Russian Federation has long been experimenting with real-time control systems for Shaheds; LTE modems, various types of cameras requiring repeaters, satellite communications equipment, and even Starlink have been found on these UAVs. Andrey Shtepa noted that these funds have not gained widespread popularity.

“Right now I only see the enemy’s experiments. Some are more successful, others less so. But in my opinion, all these attempts with already known experiments will not progress further. Because they failed the battle tests,” he says.

What it takes to create a flock of “Shaheds”

Artificial intelligence-based swarm solutions are a very complex technology. It requires the development of software, the presence of complex equipment: processors or neural network modules to process data on each drone, reliable communication channels with repeaters that can transmit signals over long distances.

Cheapness is a significant advantage of Shahed as a type of weapon, and swarm technologies will increase the cost of their production. Hypothetically, drones will become more expensive and less common, because operating swarms requires special chips and computing resources, which Russia may not have enough due to economic constraints. Another factor: Swarms need to be protected against electronic warfare, and such systems are complex and expensive.

“We see that despite the sanctions, the Russians still have the opportunity to purchase dual-use goods smuggled through third countries. They can also disguise some civilian chips for non-military purposes,” said Andrei Shtepa. It is now difficult to name specific figures, but it is clear that the installation of certified chips will increase the cost of Shaheds. But in my opinion, the complexity of production will not increase much, since it is not the main part of the problem. hardware but software. “Russia doesn’t have a problem yet.”

How to fight the Shahed horde?

According to Andrey Shtepa, a drone swarm is a rather vulnerable technology because it cannot work without a repeater in the form of a ground station or a drone such as ZALA or Lancet. Without such a means of communication, it would not be possible for the Martyrs to work in groups in a coordinated manner.

“There must be a drone or ground station that constantly gives a signal. If it emits something, it will be found far away and attacked immediately. Such an attack can only be effective once. Then they will analyze it and understand the incident.” AirUnit representative, signal type and application technology method and a countermeasure system will be constructed immediately. “Considering the launch distance of the Shahads, the repeater will be unprotected and will not be able to withstand our attacks.”

Generally, signal transmitters are needed for the operation of a swarm of UAVs, and therefore Shaheds with such systems can be exposed to electronic warfare. It is also possible to deceive the artificial intelligence itself to some extent, for example by blinding the sensors with lasers.

“But so far we are not aware of cases where this technology has been used in real combat conditions. To develop an effective set of combat vehicles, we need to fully understand how swarms will work,” AirUnit said.

All classic methods help partially: camouflage, traps, fire damage and so on. They can be used without AI. Most likely, in the event of a launch of unmanned aerial vehicles, Ukrainians will have to take a number of various measures.

As mentioned earlier, the technology is based on imports of high-performance chips that Russia can purchase through third countries; such plans have appeared repeatedly in the media. More effective sanctions against dual re-exporting countries could limit the attacker’s use of these funds.

Source: Focus

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