Ukrainians should not be deceived – Volodymyr Fesenko says that Poland does not intend to fight against the Russian Federation on Ukrainian soil. But the Poles are preparing to defend their state in case of an attack by Moscow. The expert told FocusOn what pretext could Russia attack a NATO country?
On Saturday, March 18th, Polish Ambassador Jan Emeryk Rosciszewski said on the broadcast of the French television channel LCI that if Ukraine cannot defend its independence, Poland will be forced to go to war with Russia. The diplomat’s words received wide coverage in the media, including the Russian media. Shortly after, the Polish Embassy in France interpreted Rosciszewski’s words, saying that the ambassador’s statement had been taken out of context and misinterpreted. Focus He asked political scientist Vladimir Fesenko what the Polish diplomat had in mind and under what conditions Russia might attack a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.
“Poland will not fight on Ukrainian soil”
Volodymyr Fesenko recalls that the military-political bloc has repeatedly emphasized that they do not intend to take a direct part in the war against the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine. NATO has a clear policy to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia due to the high risks of nuclear war. He explains, therefore, that any talk of Poland getting into a military conflict is untrue.
“We should not have any illusions – there is not even a question that Poland will fight against Russia on Ukrainian soil,” the political scientist said.
According to the expert, the statement of Ambassador Rosciszewski should be understood as the readiness of Warsaw to defend its territory in case Moscow attacks Poland.
“Of course, the Poles will defend themselves in the event of Russian aggression. That’s exactly what the diplomat had in mind. We can say that he publicly voiced what was discussed informally in Warsaw,” explains Fesenko.
NATO is preparing
Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of the military-political bloc, has repeatedly warned Moscow that the Alliance will not tolerate an attack on a NATO member state.
“There is only one reason why NATO could change its decision not to participate directly in the war against the Russian Federation: Russian troops attacking an Alliance member country,” Fesenko said.
The political scientist is sure that the risk of military aggression against the states of the military-political bloc of Moscow really exists.
“Anything can happen. We cannot evaluate the degree of insanity, the degree of adventurism of the person who rules Russia. A total war with Ukraine, which should not be started from a rational point of view, shows that it is there. It is a risk of attacking a NATO country,” explains the expert.
The Alliance understands this and is trying to take preventive measures to defend its territories. In this regard, the grouping of the bloc is being built in the regions bordering Russia. Therefore, the publication Politico of March 18 wrote that NATO is ready to send 300,000 troops to the borders of the Russian Federation. A day ago, the Polish Portal samorzadowy reported that Warsaw intends to deploy HIMARS systems near the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation.
New “SVO”: What scenarios are possible?
According to Fesenko, Russia can come up with different scenarios to “justify” a military attack against one of the NATO countries.
Therefore, another “special military operation” could be declared in the Kremlin to seize the so-called “Suwalki corridor”, a section on the border between Poland and Lithuania that could connect the Kaliningrad region to Belarus. This issue was widely discussed last summer when the Russian region was “blocked”, as Moscow claimed, due to European Union sanctions.
Fesenko believes that another official reason for Russia attacking a NATO country is Finland’s entry into the Alliance. According to him, this could lead to conflicts in the Baltic Sea.
As the political scientist emphasized, Russia today has no potential to win an all-out war with NATO, but that doesn’t mean Moscow won’t decide to attack at some point. And the threat from the Russian Federation is taken very seriously in the Alliance. All the steps taken by NATO to strengthen the defense capability of its own territory are only a reaction to the actions of the aggressor country.
Recall what Oleksandr Kraev, expert at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” said Focus“Russian Crimea” is a danger to all NATO. From the territory of the peninsula, the Russian army could carry out a nuclear strike against Romania, Hungary, Turkey and other Black Sea countries of the Alliance.
Source: Focus
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