Recently, a new military coalition against Ethiopia has emerged in Africa (Eritrea, Egypt and Somalia). Ethiopia groups armored vehicles on the border with Somalia, and the unrecognized state of Somaliland has given Ethiopians access to the sea, an entire port on the Gulf of Aden coast. Somalia also signed an anti-Ethiopia agreement with Egypt, and 5 to 10 thousand Egyptian soldiers have already arrived in this country. And Sudan still looks at all this with an incomprehensible “face”…
New military alliances are being formed for a reason: A new major war is brewing in Africa. Access to the sea and drinking water for resources. Focus An attempt was made to estimate the size of the fire that was about to break out on the Arabian and Red Sea coasts.
What is the connection between the new war in Africa and BRICS problems?
Changes in security and governance are taking place around the world, and resource-rich Africa is one place where the world’s former leaders are pitted against each other as they vie for dominance. The new local elite wants to be the subject of at least African politics, if not the world. This contributes to the formation of new regional alliances of local states.
A meeting was held in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, between the leaders of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea – the countries marched against Ethiopia. And it’s not just African countries that are in conflict here. War may soon break out between the two new BRICS members.
New countries that joined the organization at the beginning of this year attended the BRICS summit, held recently in Kazan, Russia, for the first time. And the organization was quick to point out its members’ unity issues; The leader of Saudi Arabia did not attend the meeting. But this is only a visible problem for the rebel organization, as a real war could break out between the two newly joined BRICS countries. Experts called the new alliance formed by Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea the Anti-Ethiopian Alliance. The most important power in this may be official Cairo.
Focus He explored the nature of the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia and uncovered what water had to do with it.
Egypt and the Nile: unspoiled water
Perhaps the only thing that modern Arab secular and militarized Egypt has in common with the world-famous historical brand that formed the civilization several thousand years ago is dependence on the Nile River. The peculiarity of one of the largest rivers in the world is that it flows from south to north and flows into the waters of the Mediterranean Sea before forming a delta (branching into several streams). This is what allowed the ancient inhabitants of the barren desert to establish an agricultural civilization, taking advantage of the river’s cyclical floods.
Millennia have passed, the technical capabilities of humanity have changed beyond recognition, but it remains constant that the population of Egypt (currently more than 100 million people) is located around the bed of the Nile and is completely dependent on its waters.
How are neighbors “blackmailing” Egypt?
That’s why neighbors upriver were always willing to exploit this factor. Thus, the British controlled Sudan, located above the Nile, and this was an important factor in the influence of Great Britain on the land of the pyramids in the 19th century. Since then, Egypt has been afraid of running out of water because someone would cut off the upper part of the river, according to Norwegian professor Torje Tvedt. Now Ethiopia, which is much weaker in terms of geopolitical weight, is trying to play the same card.
Although Ethiopia is the only country in Africa that did not become a colony of European states in the 19th century, its position is currently quite weak. The country suffered a civil war that ended with an uneasy ceasefire in 2022. Currently, the government has almost no control over the breakaway region of Tigray. The country’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is trying to direct the attention of the dissatisfied population to any success. This is the reason for the latest decisions of official Addis Ababa, according to geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton-Harvey.
How does Ethiopia’s “Renaissance” threaten Egypt?
Ethiopia has been building the giant Renaissance Dam on the Nile River since 2011, the cost of which is estimated at 4 billion dollars. Thirteen years ago, Egypt was torn by internal political crises. However, the army coming to power (the army has been de facto ruling this country for the last ten years) changed the situation. Understanding the critical importance of the Nile waters for the Egyptian people, Marshal El Sisi constantly raises the dam issue in various places. This was last done in a letter sent to the UN Security Council, in which Ethiopia was accused of violating all possible international agreements and laws.
Ethiopia benefits from its geographical location; They do not have common borders with Egypt. And the “effectiveness” of the UN is now known to everyone. So they know very well that Egypt cannot reach them in Addis Ababa; They have completed the construction of the dam and are now preparing to fill the reservoir it creates with water. It is clear that in Ethiopia’s government offices, in addition to the economic benefits that its commissioning will bring, they also calculate all the geopolitical bonuses that will affect Egypt, one of the most powerful countries in the world from a strategic perspective. It can bring aspects to Africa and the Arab world.
They also understand the danger of the Renaissance Dam in Cairo. Ultimately, the fate of the country will be in the hands of the Ethiopian government because without water there is no life. But until recently, Cairo had no effective mechanisms to influence official Addis Ababa. But Ethiopia itself provided the Egyptians with such an opportunity.
Ethiopia strives for the sea
In 1993, Eritrea left the country and blocked Ethiopia’s access to the sea. Two years ago, Somaliland declared independence from civil war-ravaged Somalia. This entity has not yet been recognized as a sovereign state by any country in the world. In January this year, Ethiopia signed an agreement with the separatist government of Somaliland on a 50-year lease of 20 kilometers of coastal territory. So, recognition of Somaliland by Addis Ababa is on the horizon, and Ethiopia could become the first UN member to recognize this semi-state territory.
It is clear that in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, they are trying to prevent the legal destruction of the integrity of the state by using every possible means. European expert on African affairs Dr. Mohamed Eldo notes that Ethiopia’s access to the sea is also strategically disadvantageous for Eritrea because it adds another rival for control of sea lanes in the region.
Egyptian power
Interestingly, there is an Ethiopian peacekeeping contingent in Somalia. Following the signing of the January agreements, official Mogadishu (Somalia’s capital, largest city and main port) began demanding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country. And they decided to replace them with Egyptian armed forces.
In August, an Egyptian warship visited Somalia and brought weapons to the country; Egyptian military transport planes have entered the country several times before. There are probably around five thousand Egyptian soldiers in Somalia.
Cairo will kill two birds with one stone by placing its military base in Somalia; It will move closer to Ethiopia and its dam, and will also gain a military presence near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is vital for the Egyptian economy. .
Why is the Horn of Africa interesting for Türkiye and the Emirates?
Taking advantage of this moment, Egypt began to form an anti-Ethiopia coalition of Horn of Africa countries. Just a year ago Ethiopia felt completely safe; Now it seems that it is surrounded by, if not hostile, at least hostile states. The situation is further complicated by the strategic importance of the Horn of Africa for the entire planet, because it is one of the main communication routes between Europe and Asia, the so-called “Global West” and “Global South”. This determines the presence of stronger global players here. Some of these are Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates.
Important
Rich in petrodollars, the UAE is one of the main financial recipients of many governments in the Horn of Africa region.
But Ankara offers something more effective; military products and even military power of the defense complex. Türkiye has been interacting with Somalia since 2011. The largest Turkish military base is located in Somalia. A defense agreement was signed between the states in February this year. However, Ankara has provided the Ethiopian government with drones to fight rebels in Tigray.
Turkey hoped to play a mediator role in the conflict over Somaliland by maintaining good relations with both sides. Instead, there were two unsuccessful rounds of negotiations, and after the second round, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmud signed a defense agreement with Egypt.
Somali Triangle: Prospects for Regional Unity
The alliance of three states significantly changes the balance of power in the region, which, of course, many players do not like. Various parts of Somalia are already protesting the agreement with Egypt. The state, whose blood has been shed due to years of civil war, has many vulnerabilities. Ethiopia, in particular, may support jihadists from the Al Shabaab movement in an attempt to influence official Mogadishu.
True, flirting with separatists in this case is a double-edged sword, because Somalia and its new allies may also support separatists from Tigray, which will create significant problems for the Ethiopian government. It is also worth noting that Ethiopia is the only Orthodox state in the region and is surrounded by predominantly Muslim countries; This is an important factor in terms of soft power.
How did the USA and China stay out of the picture?
No matter how this conflict turns out, its important planetary implication is that the world is moving towards an age of regional alliances. Without the participation of the UN, which has proven its impotence in this regard, the conflict will either flare up or be resolved. An important feature of the situation is that in an environment where the US position as the world hegemon is weakening, China does not show its influence in the Horn of Africa, despite its strategic importance.
The triple alliance concluded in Asmara could become a new geopolitical precedent if the region’s problems are resolved by the residents themselves, without the participation of world hegemons, former metropolises or even second-tier states such as Turkey and the UAE. However, the position of this geopolitical structure is extremely strong, because if a large-scale conflict breaks out, it will reveal the ineffectiveness of any political structure without at least the participation of regional leaders.
Source: Focus
Alfred Hart is an accomplished journalist known for his expert analysis and commentary on global affairs. He currently works as a writer at 24 news breaker, where he provides readers with in-depth coverage of the most pressing issues affecting the world today. With a keen insight and a deep understanding of international politics and economics, Alfred’s writing is a must-read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the world we live in.