How to scare a dictator: Why Putin might reject Trump’s peace plan

Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, who is under Western sanctions, told the Financial Times (FT) that Putin would likely reject a peace plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war proposed by Trump’s recently appointed special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Malofeev believes that in order for the negotiations to be constructive, it is necessary to talk not about the future of Ukraine, but about the future of Europe and the world as a whole. “Moscow will only make a serious move if Trump agrees to discuss other global conflicts, including wars in the Middle East and the strengthening of Russia’s alliance with China, and also recognizes Ukraine as part of the Kremlin’s core interests,” the Russian oligarch said. “He will consider a peace agreement in this way,” he said.

Meanwhile, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in an interview with the German publication Table.Briefings, said that Ukraine’s temporary surrender of its territory to the aggressor country Russia could be an option for a quick end to the war.

According to the former head of the North Atlantic Alliance, even if the Russian Federation continues to control the occupied territories after the ceasefire, this will not mean that Ukraine will abandon them forever. Mr. Stoltenberg concluded that official Kiev’s territorial concessions would show that “we all really want the war to end.”

Why is Putin obsessed with Ukraine and when will he compromise?

Political scientist Oleg Posternak emphasized that the world has now lifted the taboo on discussing ways to achieve peace in the Russia-Ukraine war. Focus noted: “It should be understood that Malofeev represents a narrow conservative, far-right faction of the Russian elite, so his opinion is expressed only by the most radical wing, which is not dominated by Putin. While he’s not a constant apologist for this position, he’s unlikely to agree with it. Moreover, if you believe the information of some Russian media, the Kremlin has already given clear instructions to regional authorities on what is considered a victory for Russia. The Federation is making a noise again in this context. De-nazification, demilitarization, seizure of new lands, etc. “This shows that part of the Russian bureaucracy has received instructions from Putin regarding the image of the so-called victory of the Russian Federation.”

According to the expert, Ukraine is a region where Russia “and will definitely never have” interests, due to the inability of the Russian Federation to impose an extraneous reality on Ukraine, even from a military perspective: “This is already the final, Moscow cannot change anything, including nuclear weapons, and Trump will not give all of Ukraine to the sphere of interest of the Russian Federation. Returning to Malofeev’s statement, I would like to point out that yes, of course, Putin’s raise is beneficial. We must address the issue more broadly and include it in the negotiation process. nuclear agreements, relations with China, the Middle East and so on. But as they say, flies are different, chops are different.”

Oleg Posternak states that if Trump wanted to solve the Ukraine problem with a global formula, he would not have appointed Keith Kellogg as special envoy. “The appointment of former General Kellogg means only one thing: Trump sees the Russia-Ukraine war as a separate path that requires a separate solution, apart from other conflicts: Syria, Hezbollah – Israel, China-Taiwan, etc., no matter how much Putin wants to escalate the problem. ” summarizes the political scientist.

Commenting on Stoltenberg’s statement that Kiev’s territorial concessions are the way to quickly end the war, the expert emphasized: “His (former NATO Secretary General) words are actually the dominant framework that is now beginning to take over security. In other words, this is a transfer of what Western elites actually think now, in principle, Zelensky recently made similar statements in content and aspect. It’s about the regions and NATO.”

In summary, Oleg Posternak expressed his belief that territorial concessions from Kiev will not be enough for Putin to end the war: “Nothing will be enough for Putin, because he is obsessed with Ukraine and our state has a certain psychological obsession with Ukraine. For Putin, this is a clear gestalt that dates back almost to the first year of his presidency, when the Tuzla incident took place in 2003. Putin is clearly aware that, due to Ukraine’s lack of direction in the Kremlin’s desired scenario, he is perceived as a weak and incompetent leader who cannot solve this issue, and Putin is actually in thrall to these thoughts. Therefore, even if he were to agree to compromise, it is clear that this compromise would be completely temporary, indirect and opportunistic in nature.”

How and to what extent is Putin afraid of Trump and how much is he afraid of him?

Political scientist Oleg Lesnoy stated that there is currently “a very interesting situation” regarding the peacekeeping process. Focus emphasized: “We hear a lot of white noise and see many types of peace plans. Even speaking at a joint briefing with German Chancellor Scholz, Zelensky noted that there are many plans in the Western press, but it is not known. One way or another, it is clear who wrote them, but this white noise does not affect the negotiation process.” “It is proof that very serious preparations have been made and the parties are constantly revealing their so-called red lines, directly and indirectly.”

Noting that Putin avoids talking personally about the peace negotiations, the expert added: “The Kremlin uses “talking heads” – Medvedev, Malofeev, Zakharova, a propaganda army and the like. If you eliminate them all completely. The verbal quibbles, the talk that Ukraine and the West should surrender and only then will there be negotiations, is this all happening entirely in the spirit of Russian diplomacy, which defines compromise as something where literally anything is possible? “All of the Kremlin’s ‘requests’ are accepted without hesitation and objection. However, the important thing here is that this aggressive rhetoric does not come from Putin’s lips, because Putin is still afraid of Trump and his possible reaction.”

Emphasizing that Russia needs not only land, but a lot of land, the expert noted that the Russian Federation does not need an independent Ukraine as a whole, and that is exactly what Putin is trying to achieve. Oleg Lesnoy believes that if the negotiations are fair and lead to a just peace, then the “territorial issue” will not be a fast track by any means, because Ukraine will not change its territory left and right.

In general, speaking about possible temporary territorial concessions by official Kiev, the expert noted that he considers such proposals at least unreasonable, since the victim is not Ukraine, but the aggressor is always forced to peace. Oleg Lisny believes that a quick end to the war would mean in the long run not only the collapse of Ukraine, but also a serious defeat for the United States. The expert believes that Donald Trump is well aware of this risk of a global nature, as he is not a loser and does not want to be in office. Therefore, Oleg Lesnoy notes that when respected Western politicians claim that land can be used for peace, “they are either insincere or do not fully understand the situation.”

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned US President-elect Donald Trump about a “terrible threat” from China, Iran and North Korea if Ukraine is forced to sign a peace agreement on terms favorable to Russia. In his interview with the Financial Times, the Secretary General of the Alliance emphasized that the deepening ties between America’s enemies puts America at risk. Separately, he emphasized the need to strengthen Ukraine militarily before potential peace negotiations so that Vladimir Zelensky could speak to them from a position of strength. It is very significant that the newly elected Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance has set the direction of military strengthening of Kiev as his number one priority.