In suitcases. How does Crimea live in anticipation of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?

Svetlana (her name has been changed for security reasons) has recently had to travel to the occupied territory of the Kherson region. She says that to go to Kalançak village, she has to cross many countries, especially Belarus and Russia, and visit occupied Crimea. The usual route over the Dnieper along the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson no longer exists.

“In short, the peninsula was full of military personnel and equipment. They are everywhere. When you go by rail, you see used and damaged tanks, they just stand next to the tracks. There are also new ones. Especially the station in Dzhankoy on the railway, there was a lot of equipment on the platforms, a lot of Russian soldiers – double-deckers. I saw how they were loaded onto trains. I heard they were going to the exit – to Adler. Someone said that there was rotation. There was a “bavovna” in Dzhankoy that day. I think there was something to be liquidated, “says Svetlana.

He states that the entire peninsula is now in the trenches and construction equipment is working.

“From Dzhankoy and from the north to the Crimean exit, and already in the Kherson region you can see trenches, bunkers,” he recalls, fresh wood smells in the air. “Z” and “V” symbols.

Sources in Crimea confirm: invaders dig and mine

Eskender Bariev, Chairman of the Board of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center, says: FocusIn the Crimea, the construction work has actually stopped – all the equipment is involved in the preparation of fortifications in the west and north of the peninsula. And also along the North Crimean Channel. In particular, the village of Mezhvodnoye is being turned into a military fortification: the beaches are mined.

“We received information from our sources that they dig trenches not only along the coast, but also around settlements. For example, near the villages of Nekrasovka and Dmitrovka in the Soviet zone. (Near Sivash Lake – ed.). And not just. It was also said that the Russians buried mines in the Krasnoperekopsky district in the steppes. They dig trenches in the Genichesk region, namely along the Sea of ​​Azov, closer to Arabat Spit and Chongar. But they’re building wooden buildings because the soil is so wet there,” he says.

Bariev also confirms that there are many Russian soldiers in Crimea, especially in public places, there are also “Wagnerians”.

“To raise morale, the head of the so-called Republic of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, went to the zone of “special military operations”, which personally rewarded the Crimean people. At the same time, Aksyonov criticizes the Russian Ministry of Defense, The expert is trying to create a Crimean PMC, saying that there are not enough weapons on the front, We heard that they are working with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian businessman, organizer of Wagner PMC, on this issue, says the expert.

On April 1, 2023, the mobilization began in Russia and thus in the occupied Crimea, which will last until July 15. However, representatives of military commissars began issuing subpoenas a week ago.

“For example, 75 summons were issued in the Suvorovsky Saki district, where 3.5 thousand people live,” Bariev continues. We’re talking about citizens.”

They sell in Crimea, they buy in Turkey

Locals in Crimea say that life is frozen there. Just a few months ago, there was more confidence that one could build one’s future on the peninsula. Currently, the outlook is bleak.

“Despite the fact that the Russians allocate money from the federal budget for the so-called housing certificates so that residents of the occupied Kherson region can purchase housing, the supply of housing exceeds the demand. That is, very few people buy apartments in the Crimea at the moment. Unlike the third, Eskender Bariev said, “According to our information, the rich Crimea its collaborators are already actively buying real estate in Turkey,” he continues, “it is remarkable how much the number of advertisements on the Avito channel has increased, it is very similar to the Ukraine OLKh. It is full of offers for the sale of household items bought two to four years ago, so When people leave, they’re not going to take much with them.”

They also talk about a possible departure from the peninsula and even evacuation. When representatives of the so-called local authorities go from house to house and collect information, there are known facts: how many people live in total, how many of them are adults, elderly, does the family have a car? Experts suggest that such visits may be associated with a possible eviction. Since 2021, the norm on mandatory evacuation in Russia is in force – it provides for the mandatory departure of the civilian population from the areas with a threat of emergency or from the emergency zone after receiving information about evacuation measures. It was this norm that the Russians already used in the occupied Kherson region when they announced the evacuation during the retreat from the right bank.

“As a result, people at the household level are already starting to think about how to evacuate: by bus, train, car,” adds the chairman of the board of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center.

At the same time, Andriy Yusov, representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, says that the process of leaving the temporarily occupied Crimean territory is very active at the level of the Russian leadership, command, command. invading troops and the so-called “administration”. They sell real estate on the peninsula and drive families away.

“But to others – to the base – they are told, they say: “Don’t worry, everything is calm, everything is under control.” But this is already like a meme – “the so-called special operation is going according to him. plan,” adds Yusov.

Mood in Crimea: Ukraine is waiting, but not everyone

At the same time, the addressees Focus We believe that there are enough people waiting for Ukraine and its Armed Forces in Crimea. Of course, it is wrong to say that the vast majority of those who are actively waiting for the Ukrainian army are wrong. But it’s also to say that the majority don’t expect it.

Recall that the Ukrainian authorities said that the inhabitants of Crimea, who did not commit war crimes or crimes against humanity, did not contribute to the occupation, would not be held accountable. And even those whose actions by the Ukrainian state could be considered unequivocally illegal, but without serious consequences, will probably only be subject to laundering measures – such persons may be subject to restraint in certain positions, but they will be able to. freely residing in the territory of Crimea. But those who entered the territory of the Crimea from the territory of the Russian Federation after 2014 will really have to leave (according to rough estimates, we are talking about 500-700 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation), because according to Ukrainian legislation this visit was illegal – a violation of the state border regime of Ukraine.

“We are seeing more and more manifestations of the pro-Ukrainian stance in Crimea,” says Eskender Bariev. “For example, the Ukrainian flag was recently hoisted in the village of Grushevka. seen The colors of the Ukrainian flag. This is historically very important because traditionally in the Ak-Kaya rock they were grown on white felt when the khans performed their oath ceremonies. Earlier there was information that the Russians hoisted the Russian flag there. But this was certainly done by activists, civilian residents of the Crimea. And we see such manifestations not only in Bakhchisaray, Simferopol, but also in other parts of the Crimea.

In addition, it can be assumed that a large percentage of people live in Crimea, which, although they do not support the unity of Ukraine, do not actively participate in the support of the Russian Federation. Some kept the originals of Ukrainian documents, especially the birth certificates of children – only providing copies to the occupants so that, if necessary, the Russian administration stamped them. Therefore, Ukraine will probably be able to count on the support, or at least the understanding, of the majority of pro-Ukrainian and neutral citizens during the counterattack that will likely be announced in the future.

The military has confirmed that resistance in the Crimea is indeed growing – they are receiving higher-quality intelligence information, which allows them to conduct successful operations on the peninsula. In addition, the probability of the so-called local authorities to refute the statements of the Ukrainian side about hitting targets has decreased – perhaps the residents of the region no longer quite believe these words.

What is in the affected area in Crimea?

Meanwhile, the number of explosions increased in Crimea. One of the most recent cases was recorded in Dzhanköy on March 20. Locals refer to it as a strong earthquake. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the Russian Kalibr missiles, with which the invaders planned to bombard Ukraine, were destroyed – the shells were transported only by rail. The invaders also announce the work of their own air defense and the destruction of the UAV.

Dzhanköy is militarily important. First of all, it is a railway logistics center, where the tracks from the east of Crimea – Kerch, Feodosiya, Nizhnegorskaya, Sovetsky, and from the west – Evpatoria, converge. And then they move to Sevastopol (via Simferopol) or to the occupied territories of the Kherson region.

The head of security programs at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, Captain 1st Degree Pavel Lakiychuk, answering the question of whether there will be Caliber missiles in Dzhankoy, answers unequivocally: “Of course.”

“The main tactical missile bases, where missiles for the Russian Black Sea Fleet are delivered, are in Novorossiysk. From there they are transported to Sevastopol to the 17th arsenal, or by sea with special ships. Or and more often by rail across the Kerch bridge, then only via Dzhankoy,” he said. He explains, “For the Russians, there is a very weak link: to get to the rear, you have to approach the areas where we have fire damage, quite close to the front line. Also in Dzhankoy there are enough intermediate temporary warehouses with ammunition, ammunition. This is the main logistics center. Every time our professionals fly, serious losses they are giving.”

Experts say that the number of such arrivals at the facilities in Crimea will only increase. Ukraine not only has high-quality intelligence, but also buys Western weapons, produces its own attack warplanes, which can be used, in particular, in operations in the Crimea.