Rumors about Ramzan Kadyrov’s illness and the meeting of his eldest son Akhmat with Vladimir Putin, as well as the recent scandal about the construction of a mosque in Moscow and the threat of the Chechen army to fight the Russians, sparked talk of a possible war. Replacing the head of Chechnya. Focus He understood whether a change in the leader of Chechnya was really being prepared.
On March 28, a police station was bombed in Gudermes, Chechnya, killing two. Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov arrived at the scene with his 15-year-old son, Adem, wearing a bulletproof vest. A video was broadcast on Kadyrov’s Telegram channel, where security forces throw the bodies of two people at the feet of Kadyrov and his son.
According to the head of Chechnya, law enforcement and special services have prepared operational data on two criminals in the private sector of Gudermes. They were offered to surrender, but in response, fire was opened, a grenade flew, and as a result, the suspects were destroyed.
It was also uneasy in neighboring Ingushetia, where unidentified persons were shooting at police stations. I even had to declare a counter-terrorism operation (CTO). RosSMI wrote about the deaths of three police officers and eight injured.
In parallel, protests have been going on for a month against the construction of the largest mosque in Moscow in the post-Soviet area near the Holy Lake in the Kosino-Ukhtomsky district. The Kadyrovites fighting in Ukraine recently made a resounding statement – they wanted to go to war against the demonstrators.
One of the militants said, “If you go against the will of Almighty Allah, we will fight you too. It doesn’t matter to us who we fight against.” Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov also said that Russian protesters should be mobilized and sent to Ukraine with machine guns. As a result, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin postponed the construction of the mosque – they found a place near the Kosino metro station.
Albert Esedov, head of the Yabloko party in Dagestan, in communication with the Kavkaz.Realii publication, said that this step was nothing but a provocation. The first events around the mosque were covered by journalists of the federal Orthodox TV channel “Spas”. And right after that, construction opponents came to the rally.
“And along with them there are those who apparently decided to dilute the issue with a national issue. Probably, law enforcement should somehow react to the provocation that has not yet happened,” Esedov said.
How does Ramzan Kadyrov create the image of a “strong man” in Putin’s eyes?
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted the demonstrative massacre of shooters in Gudermes. Kadyrov fears losing the loyalty of Vladimir Putin and wants to maintain the impression that he is a “strong man”.
Experts emphasize that Ramzan Kadyrov is trying to prove to the Russian president his ability to suppress any attempts at internal resistance in the republic, and he sees the instability in Chechnya as a risk of attracting Putin.
Vadim Dubnov, columnist for “Echo of the Caucasus” in the Czech Republic, in the comments Focus He expressed doubts about the potential for a protest in Chechnya. The Republic succeeded in suppressing the underground almost completely.
“The militants are unlikely to be active in Gudermes, it seems more like an armed daily life, just not traditional for Chechnya. Moreover, Gudermes is the legacy of the Kadyrovs. The power transmission options in Chechnya do not seem to me. As they had different tasks with Prigozhin, over time Wagner by Kadyrov, who distanced himself from his conspiracies. For Prigozhin, war is a way to strengthen his position in the elite and expand his role in Putin’s circle. For Kadyrov, the analyst considers that a place in the elite is not important, it is hostile to him.
According to Central and Eastern Europe expert Ivan Preobrazhensky, Ramzan Kadyrov was afraid to appear in Moscow after Valery Gerasimov was appointed commander of the war in Ukraine.
According to Preobrazhensky, Ramzan Kadyrov first went to Dubai and then ordered that his son Ahmat be sent to Putin. “Then Kadyrov came personally, agreed on everything and began to support the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces,” he says.
Preobrazhensky makes a distinction between Kadyrov and the founder of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin – the first became close to the RF Ministry of Defense, the second only wants him, but is not included in the system.
Ramzan Kadyrov’s illness: truth or distraction?
In late February – early March, the topic of Ramzan Kadyrov’s health became popular. He missed a message sent from Putin to the Bundestag on February 21. And on March 3, 17-year-old Akhmat, the eldest son of the president of Chechnya, goes to a personal meeting with the president, accompanied by Ruslan Edelgeriev, an adviser to the president of the Russian Federation on climate issues.
The German tabloid Bild wrote about the sick kidneys of Ramzan Kadyrov and the doctor of the nephrology department of the Burjil hospital in Abu Dhabi, who flew to Grozny. Former co-owner of Yukos, Russian-Israeli businessman Leonid Nevzlin, citing his sources, said that Kadyrov did not trust Russian doctors and he had reasons for that.
“My sources say that the kidneys are a sign of poisoning, and that’s what Kadyrov fears, who has made so many enemies among the generals who have access to the developments of the GRU,” Nevzlin said.
The version of a possible poisoning was received by Russian conspiracy theorists. Also, in February, Ramzan Kadyrov spoke about the attempt to poison his deputy Akhmat special forces commander Apta Alaudinov. On February 8, a poison-soaked letter was given to a Chechen police major general.
Vadim Dubnov says Focus He said that the issue of Kadyrov’s health is highly speculative, because the sources of this information are biased or have no access to real information, and opinions are based only on visual information.
“Like Akhmed Zakayev [лидер непризнаной Чеченской республики Ичкерия], is frequently cited. “There may be health issues, but nothing has been said about their deaths so far, which is no more credible than rumors that Putin will die soon,” he said.
Novaya Gazeta columnist Elena Milashina draws attention to a clear sign of possible health problems of Ramzan Kadyrov – the active participation of his underage sons in state affairs.
Since June 2022, Kadyrov’s sons are often featured in the broadcast of Grozny ChGTRK. Young people attend hour-long meetings with their father, accompany him on protocol visits and meetings with famous Russian politicians and officials.
Last October, Kadyrov’s three sons were taken to the war zone in Ukraine and even “joined the war”. At that time, Ramzan’s eldest daughter, Aishat, was distributing humanitarian aid to residents of “LPR” and “DPR”.
According to analysts, Kadyrov Sr. is not naive enough to believe that his 17-year-old son will be able to gain and hold power in the republic in the near future.
“It’s young age and it won’t be allowed by law. Secondly, it is very doubtful that in the event of a forced change of power in the republic, Moscow will reproduce the Russian model of government. Milashina is the region according to the principle of “state within a state”.
Kadyrov holds the highest level of authority in the Russian Federation to protect children – an indicator of the highest guarantees of family immunity in the worst case of events.
“This is one of the attempts to create a tribe that will control Chechnya if something happens to it. It is modeled after the monarchies in the Persian Gulf and Syria. uprisings and revolutions. One member of the clan is replaced by another” parallels Focus Ivan Preobrazhensky.
Dubnov adds that the story of Akhmat Kadyrov is not a preparation for the future Chechen leader.
“This is not even a child, Kolya Lukashenko (son of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, – ed.). This is very important for Kadyrov – the realization of the title of baron with the legitimization of his family and political clan,” he emphasizes.
Potential for protest in Chechnya: Ichkeria is getting further and further away
Participants say that rumors about Ramzan Kadyrov’s health and publicity of his children by the media do not indicate an increase in the potential for protests in Chechnya and the North Caucasus. focus experts.
The only example of disobedience to the authorities for a long time is the call of Chechen women in September 2022 to go to a rally in the square near the Heart of Chechnya mosque in Grozny. The portal “Caucasian Knot” wrote about 30-40 women who went up to the mosque, but the police cordoned off the meeting place in advance – several dozen participants of the rally were detained.
True, Kadyrov immediately announced the suspension of mobilization in Chechnya. “During the war, 20,000 people participated in the hostilities. Chechnya more than fulfilled the “initiated plan” by 254%,” he said.
Chechnya is Russia’s super-police and super-presidential region. He explains that the protest actions there were either very short-term or took place with the tacit consent of the authorities, who were supposed to get something from the Kremlin. Focus Ivan Preobrazhensky.
“It was the same with the mobilization – when the soldiers’ mothers came out. They did not disperse, and Kadyrov later said that they would not mobilize in Chechnya. The recruitment of mercenaries continued. The main thing is that he does not allow regularly. Russian troops and Ministry of Defense officials will enter the area,” he said. expert.
International expert of the Ukrainian Future Institute Ilya Kusa is confident that Ramzan Kadyrov has literally “consolidated” the ruling clan and the system of government built over the years.
“Whether all this will lead to a change of power in Chechnya is still unknown. As with his health, he resembles North Korea. When his head, Kim Jong-un, was not seen in public for a long time, Seoul, Kusa relayed information about his death. Ramzan Kadyrov recently Perhaps he was “forced” in the Kremlin: Moscow does not need an alternative powerhouse to make decisions,” Kusa believes.
State Duma deputy sociologist Igor Yakovenko of the first meeting explains that Moscow is trying to promote the Kadyrov regime not only in Chechnya, but throughout the entire North Caucasus.
“Putinism is suffering a serious defeat in Ukraine and may not survive. But it is wrong to make specific predictions that the regime may end this year or next year. The residents of the Kremlin and the leadership in Grozny are confident in this.” , making plans for years and decades,” says Yakovenko.
It is worth remembering that Chechnya is a subsidized region and its authorities are well aware of this. The federal center of the Russian Federation provides the usual standard of living for Ramzan Kadyrov and his entourage. Focus political analyst Maria Kucherenko.
According to him, all protests against the center will be brutally suppressed – the main elements were cleared after the Chechen wars.
“Women’s protests against partial mobilization in Chechnya were not as massive as in Dagestan. The Chechen authorities did a good job of hiding information about these protests: there was little confirmed information about the fate of the women attending the rally. “We must be clearly aware that Kadyrov’s Chechnya is a parched world for the rights and freedoms of its people.” expert notes.
As for the power bloc, the Akhmat battalions have a double subordination – they are controlled by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and personally by Kadyrov. According to Kucherenko, it is not possible to argue that these are private armies that will “lay bayonets” towards the Kremlin.
Source: Focus
Bridger is a political journalist at 24 News Breaker, covering the Politics section with over 5 years of experience. Known for their detail-oriented reporting, Bridger delivers insightful and engaging analysis on political issues.