Long talk about the world. What can Zelensky and Xi Jinping agree on?

On April 26, for the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the leaders of Ukraine and China held a phone call. This communication was expected for a long time in the presidential office, but it was understood that Beijing remained silent for a long time.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “I had a long and meaningful phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. I believe that the appointment of the Ukrainian ambassador to China, along with this meeting, will give a strong impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.” .

Strategic communications expert Denis BogushCommenting on the conversation, he argues: This phone call marks a serious break in Xi’s view not only on Ukraine, but also on the situation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

“Remember, China first spoke about the Kremlin’s theses, voted for Russia at the UN, sided with Putin. During the meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin in Moscow, the Chinese leader clearly expressed the unacceptable use and proliferation of nuclear weapons. “What did Putin do? Tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. With this act, he showed Beijing its unreliability as a political partner. Remember that right after that, Xi held talks with European leaders, especially French President Macron.”

According to the expert, the phone call between the two leaders means that China does not side with the Russian Federation. He reminds that in the 12 articles of Beijing’s peace plan, respect for the sovereignty of all countries is in the first place.

and here political strategist Sergei Gaidai He says the meeting between Zelensky and Xi was nothing but a formality. “Remember, the Chinese leader promised in his meeting with Putin that he would talk to Ukraine, which is actually happening. This contact does not mean that we will be friends with China anymore, they have their own goal – a great war with the United States, which they are waging on all fronts.” “In that case, it’s better for Beijing to have a weakened Russia,” he said.

At the same time, Gaidai is confident that China does not see Ukraine as a subject of world politics, but as an object under the influence of the USA or the Russian Federation, and will base its policy on this.

“The world community must understand that the threat Putin faces is small compared to China. A new world war can start with a decisive decision in Beijing, he has strong capabilities for this. Unlike Russia, China has a strong economy, the country has technology and the West. It was inflated with money from . ” he adds.

China is trying to interrupt Russia at the negotiating table

Natalya Plaksienko-Butyrskaya, East Asian Affairs Specialist, MA in Foreign Policy speaks Focusthat an hour of conversation is not long enough to listen and share thoughts since a full-scale invasion began.

“The Chinese President had a private meeting with Putin for only 3.5 hours. There were several before that,” he says. And he continues: “It was important for Ukraine to articulate its vision of the course and end of the war, because earlier China had expressed its position on resolving the so-called Ukrainian crisis.”

However, according to him, this conversation did not start at that moment by chance. China is trying to play a peacekeeping role and is building alliances between countries that need to turn to peace after Ukraine.

“I got a view in the Chinese media that China is on the peaceful side and does not add fuel to the fire. So, on the eve of the counterattack, when our partners agree to give us weapons and Ukraine has a chance. Everyone counts on that to get through this counteroffensive well, China emerges for peaceful solution and peace talks on its initiative, plans to send its representative,” he argues.

In this context, the position of the Chinese edition of Xinhua, which states that Xi persuaded Zelensky to dialogue and negotiation, is interesting: “Dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way out of the “Ukrainian crisis” and no one can win. nuclear war.”

So China’s desire is to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. And this is happening at a time when Russia desperately needs to breathe.

In contact with the EU: weakening Europeans’ relations with Washington

“Probably China offers an option for the return of land through a peace plan and close relations. For example, I see such a possibility,” Plaksienko-Butyrskaya said.

Reason: China is trying to improve its relations with the EU. To some extent he has already succeeded in convincing French President Emmanuel Macron of the need for more autonomy in the European Union.

“We’re talking about processing some countries to divide them with the United States,” the expert says. “But the negligence of the Chinese ambassador to France has caused a very serious storm and has questioned any position of China and doubts in general in Central and Eastern Europe. There were statements from our partners that China can play a generally peaceful regulatory, peaceful role.”

Recall that a few days ago, Lu Shaiu, the Chinese Ambassador to France, questioned the sovereignty of the countries of the former USSR. According to him, these countries “do not have an effective status in international law” because there are no relevant international treaties confirming their status. He also said that Crimea was “Russian at first”. Official Beijing, “The independence of the countries of the former Soviet Union is respected and Beijing’s position on this issue has not changed.”

The window of opportunity for China is closing. There are many calls in the EU for a change of strategy towards China. Therefore, it is important that he demonstrates his abilities – to play the role of a peacemaker and to show himself primarily as an active player in the eyes of the EU. Therefore, it can be assumed that this conversation with Zelensky took place very quickly.

Exchange of diplomatic representatives with China

Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Li Hui, a special government representative in charge of Eurasian affairs, was sent to Kiev “to engage in in-depth communication with all parties regarding the political solution of the crisis” in Ukraine.

Li is the former Chinese Ambassador to Russia.

Natalia Plaksienko-Butyrskaya, an expert on East Asian affairs, continues, “Because she’s headed in this direction, it means she’s knowledgeable about the Russian Federation.” People to positions in post-Soviet space which means they know the Russian language and the region In this case, this person is the head of the department of Eurasian direction, it covers him and the region, so they are sent They got a low-level diplomat for interview, the foreign minister does not come here, even in this case the top to Ukraine They didn’t send a level diplomat, so this is just the beginning of negotiations.”

But the Ukrainian side received a rather high ambassador, given their previous rank.

At the moment we are talking about the long-awaited appointment of Pavel Ryabikin. A former People’s Deputy of three meetings (two non-partisan, one from UDAR), Director General of Boryspil Airport (in 2017-2020), Head of State Customs Services (in 2020-2021) and Minister of Strategic Industries (2021-2023′ te). Ryabikin also has experience working in a diplomatic institution: in 2009-2010 he was ambassador to the Kingdom of Denmark.

“This shows that Ukraine approached the candidacy for ambassador very carefully. It has a ministerial background. They obviously took into account the characteristics of China, they thought that they needed a person with a certain regalia in the eyes of China. High status,” adds Plaksienko -Butyrskaya.

The appointment of an ambassador is important for Ukraine – he should be a diplomat who will convey the opinion of the country, but it is clear that it will not affect serious decisions. Experts point out that for many years there has been a Russian monopoly on diplomacy in Beijing, given the Chinese leader’s very close relationship with Putin and the Russian Federation, and the interaction between Russia and China in general, and the conflict between China and the United States. .

The White House, meanwhile, responded positively to Zelensky and Xi’s phone call, but expressed doubts as to whether this meeting would give impetus to the world.

Now experts say it is too early to draw any conclusions from the meeting between the two leaders. As much as hope for China’s peacekeeping capabilities. After the meeting between Putin and Xi, nothing has changed – the Russian Federation is not ready to end hostilities, its rhetoric remains aggressive.