The Russian army is experiencing the greatest manpower losses since the end of the Second World War. It took only five months for the Ukrainian defenders to double the number of enemy casualties. Focus I learned how much more the Russian Federation can mobilize for the war in Ukraine.
Today, the number of casualties of the Russian army in Ukraine approached 200 thousand people – 199,980. The previous large figure was recorded at the end of December 2022, after which the great war in Ukraine lasted for the tenth month and the number of casualties amounted to 100 thousand people. It took the Defense Forces just five months to double that figure.
After the start of a large-scale invasion and the loss of regular armies, Russian President Vladimir Putin has already managed to declare a partial mobilization. The relevant decree was signed on September 21, 2022 and 320 thousand people were recruited. It is noteworthy that at that time, namely at the beginning of November, the number of personnel losses was about 75 thousand people. In six months, the number of casualties increased one and a half times. This may be a confirmation of the poor preparation and supply of the army, as well as the so-called “meat attack” tactics.
This isn’t the first time Putin’s entourage has declared another mobilization. On May 10, Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of Roscosmos and now calling himself “the head of a group of military advisers”, called for a second wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation.
“We must bear in mind that the enemy is stronger than us. Here we cannot act in the self-interest. That is why mobilization is needed. At the beginning of autumn, not one, but another had to pass.” . We have problems with personnel because men are injured, our soldiers are killed,” said Rogozin.
On May 10, Putin signed a decree calling on the Russians to reserve for military training. The number of men called for military training is not specified and is encrypted with the sign “for official use”.
At the same time, the State Duma deputies have already come up with a solution to the problem of how to improve the education of the mobilized. A member of the defense committee, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, suggested that citizens who have come out of military age but remain in the mobilization reserve should be called up for training. For those who served, he said, “there’s nothing for them to do” in training camps, but it will be possible to get military enrollment specialization in separate training camps.
What is the mobilization potential of the Russian Federation?
On August 25, 2022, Putin signed a decree to increase the size of the Russian Armed Forces to 1,150,628 military personnel, the rest to 2,039,758 people – administrative and service personnel. We are talking about a professional army and conscripts here, the number of people who make up the so-called mobilization potential is a military secret. Due to the significant losses suffered during the occupation of Ukraine, almost all Russian military formations are staffed, that is, there is a need for personnel.
According to the publication The Military Balance 2023, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the size of the Russian army at the beginning of the year was 1 million 190 thousand people. It would be useful to add 1.5 million people in reserve and the same number with military experience. Separately, it is necessary to allocate 559 thousand personnel of paramilitary units, such as the border service of the FSB, the National Guard.
How many Russians will be called into battle
At the level of propaganda statements, Russian politicians and journalists claim that if necessary, the Russian Federation can mobilize 30 million or more people. There is some truth in this, because in a human potential like the Russian Federation, the mobilization of the required number depends only on organizational issues and time. Another thing is the country’s ability to provide an army of this size.
The Russian mobilization potential is 1.5 million educated and about 30 million in total. “Unfortunately, these figures are not optimistic for us. But it should be noted that the Russian Federation will not be able to provide them all, there are big problems with logistics. The elite airborne troops do not have basic personal protective equipment, the soldiers do not have enough bulletproof vests and first-aid kits “, – speaks Focus military expert Dmitry Snegirev.
Important
On the other hand, military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov states that the loss of 200,000 people in the Russian occupation army is not as optimistic as it seems at first glance. He remembers that we talked not only of irreparable losses, that is, of those killed, but also of other categories.
“I don’t think 200 thousand people are close to the truth. Once upon a time, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces made a statement that in addition to the medical losses, there were also missing or detainees. The prisoners are included here. According to my estimates, the number of people killed somewhere is around 20-25 thousand. All this works for them because they haven’t even used their mobilization potential yet. Focus Jirokhov.
He recalls that the advantage in the mobilization potential is obvious, with the Russian Federation’s population of 140 million versus 30-32 million in Ukraine.
report focus experts note that attempts to estimate the ability of the Russian Federation to mobilize the required number of soldiers are still irrelevant, as they are related to the probability of supplying them. After all, a mobilized mass of people is not yet an army without at least minimal training, clothing, weapons, and combat coordination. However, the Russian Federation is experiencing major problems due to total corruption, due to the lack of suitable equipment in warehouses, military equipment being shelved “on paper”, but actually stolen and sold. The strategic reserves accumulated under the USSR remained in the same period in terms of quality. At the same time, this situation is not only in mobilization issues, but also in the regular army that is currently trying to fight in Ukraine.
It is precisely the lack of appropriate material and technical support that Snegirev describes the current situation of the Russian army in Ukraine.
“The Kremlin is trying to compensate for the lack of technology and support with the number of troops, organizing so-called “meat attacks”. Expert, it should be understood that Putin’s decision to recruit reservists is nothing more than a political statement to change the mood in Ukraine and Europe. In fact, this is the Russians. It will turn into a boomerang effect against them,” he said. .
According to Snegiryov, according to various estimates, there are about 400,000 representatives of the occupying army in Ukraine today, but if at least 50,000 of them are ready for war, this will already be an indicator. Now the Russian army is demoralized, poorly equipped and unmotivated.
Source: Focus
Bridger is a political journalist at 24 News Breaker, covering the Politics section with over 5 years of experience. Known for their detail-oriented reporting, Bridger delivers insightful and engaging analysis on political issues.