Coercion and restrictions. Why doesn’t the mobilization bill solve the problems associated with it?

Mobilization bill 10449, like last time, was initiated by the government and not by the president, as expected after the previous unsuccessful attempt with draft 10378. The Cabinet of Ministers submitted a new version of the mobilization bill to the Verkhovna Rada on January 30, but media and experts are still analyzing the changes proposed by the law. All controversial and scandalous norms that caused the previous version to be sent back to the Council of Ministers have been preserved. First of all, we are talking about the blocking of bank accounts, the ability to dispose of one’s own property or the ability to drive a vehicle. The document retained the norm of reducing the conscription age from 27 to 25 and the period of continuous service in wartime, after which demobilization could be counted on.

Social networks have already strongly embraced the new “improved” bill, stating that it imposes restrictions on all rights and freedoms of a democratic state. Political parties have so far calmly accepted the proposed changes and have not criticized them openly. So everyone is trying to move away from the unpopular decision. Only on the official website of Batkivshchyna they published Yulia Tymoshenko’s comment that “you cannot fight for the freedom of the state by depriving the nation of its freedom.”

“This is the problem of our politicians who think about ratings, not how to protect the state. Remember, at the beginning of the issue of changes in mobilization legislation, the Servant of the People generally sent everyone to the military to get comments. But this is not a problem with the army, they have nothing to do with the laws of the state,” he says Focus political expert Viktor Bobyrenko.

When will the mobilization bill be voted on?

According to people’s deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak, MPs will be able to vote on the bill in the first reading as early as February 7. In addition, the positive decision of the relevant committee and other committees in case the period for notification of change is shortened, second reading cannot be given before February 22. In the future, everything will depend on the number of amendments submitted and the time required for their consideration in the session hall. Well, It is foreseeable that the document will not be approved until early March 2024. And its final version may differ significantly from the one submitted for consideration.

It is also worth remembering that people’s deputies have the right to submit a so-called “blocking” resolution prohibiting the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada from signing the approved document. This is not an obstacle, because the decision was overturned by 226 votes of MPs, but it will allow us to get our share of political air time for loud statements.

Once signed by the President, the law will be considered valid and its effect can only be stopped by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine.

Why is the mobilization law being changed?

The mobilization preparation and mobilization law came into force in 1993. The first changes to the document were made in 1999, followed by them in 2003. The document has been amended almost every year since 2014 and eight times since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in February 2022.

According to the explanatory note on the new draft law on mobilization, its purpose is to improve the legal procedures for carrying out mobilization activities, improve the military registration of privates, military service members and reservists, improve the social protection of military personnel, as well as improve the social protection of military personnel. As specific subjects of military service to improve the quality of personnel selection during the replenishment of combat units to repel the armed attack against Ukraine.

Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak explained his need in more detail. According to that, Current legislation does not take into account longevity, scale, scope, changes in the control system, changes in the system of using other types of weapons..

Attention In Ukraine, problems with the implementation of the mobilization plan began after the decision to replace military registration and enlistment offices with new ones due to high-profile corruption scandals.. It cannot yet be said that the new leaders of the TCC have fulfilled their duties at the same level as their predecessors, but the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny noted that he was not satisfied with their work. Therefore, new changes to the law should make it mandatory for men to escape from the TTK, not from the TTK.

Where to find the 500 thousand mobilized without the new law?

Political expert Viktor Bobyrenko emphasizes that the authorities are trying to alleviate the problem by taking into account the consequences of the note, rather than solving it quickly. Given this, there is a sense that President Zelensky is unsure of what should be done. The president makes statements that 500 thousand people are mobilized, then says he is not sure whether such a number is needed.

“The bill is really complex and big, we still need to work on it but we don’t have much time. In my opinion, the main norm that should be changed yesterday is the lowering of the age limit from 27 to 25. “All other questions, such as what the agenda should be, restricting the right to drive, are details that have nothing to do with the issue of mobilization,” says the expert.

According to Bobyrenko’s calculations, Reducing the compulsory military service age to 25 will make it possible to create a significant capacity reserve.. According to demographic data, there are about 250 thousand men aged 25 in Ukraine, and the same number are 26 and 27 years old. So we have 700 thousand potential reserves. It is worth adding here those who go to higher education in 2022 and 2023, this is about 200 thousand more.

“There is a paradoxical situation in our country – More than 80 percent are in favor of a victorious war, but a significant number do not want to fight . Officials are also gauging what impact certain decisions will have on electoral sentiment. “In the future, whether such a bill is adopted or not, all this will definitely affect the ratings of politicians,” he says.

Protests on the Internet and their consequences in terms of government ratings

Interviewed Focus Experts state that the final version of the bill will depend on public opinion and the level of public perception of the law. It is even possible that the president will veto this in order to find some kind of compromise option, balancing between motivation and pressure.. The version currently proposed by the Cabinet of Ministers will eventually destroy the government’s rating and confidence in the existing parliamentary forces. At the same time, there is no point in waiting for protests, because in cases of martial law or state of emergency this is prohibited by law. And no political force will dare to take such a step, understanding the cost of such protests to the fate of the state.

Important

“We must understand that not even a single law with restrictions will be received positively. But we are at war, so decisive action is needed. There will definitely be no protests, but it will be very stormy in social networks, sort of” “I think it’s a challenge for the authorities.” Focus Ivan Stupak, former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine.

Political scientist Pyotr Oleshchuk believes this The new mobilization law will not cause a complete decline in trust and ratings in the political forces in power . This is another element of the accumulation of social dissatisfaction with the current government.

“Our political system is facing a global and serious reset. Therefore, if this law is adopted in this way, it will not be the cause, but only an additional factor. The problem with all democracies is that everyone thinks about choices and the consequences of decisions. Putin does not have such a problem. If he wants to mobilize a million people tomorrow, he will do it. Just like reaching an agreement with North Korea on ammunition or missiles. “And here decisions are made instantly, not months,” he says. Focus.

In turn, Ivan Stupak believes that they will try to balance all scandalous norms and organize appropriate communication until the final result. What is important is that military accusations of violence against draft dodgers should not be repeated. Such emotional public statements do not help motivate those responsible for military service, which the authorities are trying to mobilize.