War in space is slow, expensive and ugly: experts on the realities of extraterrestrial warfare

Arstechnica writes that because of the global tension created by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, an increasing number of military experts are considering taking possible threats into space and fighting them. Scientists Rebecca Riesman and James Wilson have prepared a special report that talks about the scenarios and types of space wars in the near future. Focus introduces readers to a brief retelling of the report.

no lightsaber

According to experts, the public is unlikely to be affected by space wars, since the “picture” of what is happening will be strikingly different from the frames of the military history of news channels that show wars on Earth.

Before interplanetary flights and the battle for the resources of other planets is still far away, but the war in orbit, if it starts, of course, will be boring. The report’s authors say the reality is that under the “space war” in modern realities, the impact on satellite communications in orbit needs to be understood.

Military operations on Earth will consist precisely in confronting the enemy’s satellite vehicles. Satellites that provide communications, navigation, intelligence and other essential functions are becoming increasingly vulnerable to attacks by rival powers.

Causes and scenarios of war in orbit

War in space can begin for several reasons:

1. The conflict on Earth escalates as one side tries to gain an advantage by destroying the enemy’s space assets.
2. preventing the deployment of new types of weapons in space that could upset the balance of power;
3. provocation or accidental event, such as when a satellite collides with another satellite or is attacked by a third party.

There are several types of space weapons that can be used to destroy or damage enemy satellites:

• kinetic weaponconsists of solid projectiles launched from Earth or other satellites. Such shells can reach speeds of up to 10 km / h and deliver devastating blows to targets;
• laser guns, which can be installed on satellites or terrestrial platforms. Lasers can damage satellites’ optical sensors or electronics, rendering them useless;
• electromagnetic weaponscapable of producing pulses that can interfere with radio communications or destroy the electrical systems of satellites.

The authors of the report offer the following options as examples of space warfare in modern realities:

• a country could launch a laser satellite that could hit other satellites’ optical sensors or electronics, rendering them useless or controllable. This can result in loss of control over important functions such as communications, navigation or intelligence.
• A country could launch a kinetic projectile at the Moon that would have enough energy to create a massive explosion at the surface, causing the rock debris on the Moon to fly toward Earth. This will create risks to life and safety.
• A country could launch an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) in high orbit over the hostile country, which could disable all electrical systems on Earth and in space. This can lead to chaos and paralysis in all areas of activity such as transport, health, finance or defense.

Is war in space actually possible?

But in general, scientists are confident that the war in space is long and very expensive. Satellites move at great speed along a given route, but the distance to them is very large, and therefore it will be impossible to carry out lightning attacks. We will have to wait for the right moment and carefully calculate each blow. Even with missile launches, the cost of attacks will be enormous.

And if we talk about attacks from one satellite to another, it is very difficult, but also slow and expensive. Among other things, in the vast expanse of earth’s orbit it is difficult to target a particular enemy satellite without confusing it with a neutral satellite.

In addition, it is difficult to calculate losses for all parties in terms of the consequences of such an attack, as well as the appearance of a large amount of space debris after the attack, which would pose a threat to objects in orbit. forces that could cause failure of the attacking party and, as a result, other spacecraft.

The moon is like a platform for rockets.

The study says the Moon could be the scene of future space wars as it is strategically important for scientific research, resource extraction and weapons deployment. The authors argue that the Moon could be used as a base for launching kinetic projectiles, satellites to Earth, and also as a place to install lasers or radars.

The authors say that such a concept, although real, will not be developed in the near future – this is impossible given the required costs. More than half a century has passed since the first mission to the Earth satellite, and humanity has never fully set foot on the Moon’s surface, as the mission needs huge financial costs.

Also, scientists remember that the Moon is subject to the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which prohibits the deployment of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in space.

harbinger of space war

However, attempts to test the concept of space warfare have already been made and more than once. For example, in 2007, China conducted an anti-satellite test by destroying its own meteorological satellite with a kinetic projectile. This has caused international concern due to the increase in space debris and the demonstration of Chinese military power in space.

India also conducted an anti-satellite test in 2019 and destroyed its own low-orbit satellite with a missile. This was presented as a step towards strengthening India’s national security and status as a space power.

In 2020, Russia launched an inspector satellite that approached a US spy satellite and made several maneuvers around it. This was seen by the United States as a potential threat to space assets and a violation of space code of conduct.

consequences of space war

Although scientists are still skeptical of large-scale space wars, they warn of the devastating consequences of satellite wars for humanity. First of all, combat operations in orbit can lead to the loss of vital communications and navigation services that depend on satellites.

The second problem is the massive scale of space debris that could paralyze the satellite network of entire countries, including those not involved in the conflict. Space debris will also make future space missions impossible. The real problem, however, is the escalation of conflict and the ensuing arms race, which will deplete the warring parties’ economies and have a deplorable impact on the standard of living of its citizens and the world economy. .

Previously Focus He wrote that satellites capable of tracking the chemical weapons of Russia and China will appear in space.