Researchers estimate that the likelihood of major storm activity in the Atlantic is increasing due to record high sea surface temperatures.
In May 2023, researchers at NOAA’s National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released estimates that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was 30% more likely than normal. However, the new estimate shows that probability has now doubled, writes SciTechDaily.
Researchers now claim that there is a 60% probability that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal. The main reason for such changes is called record temperatures at the ocean surface. The new forecast includes storms 14-21, which focus on preparedness. At the same time, the researchers note that the probability of normal hurricane activity this season has now dropped to 25%, compared to 40% in May. The researchers also state that the Atlantic has a 15% chance of having a season of activity below the norm today, and overall.
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The NOAA forecast also states that a 6-month hurricane season is expected, ending with storms 14-21 (up to 62 km/h) on November 30. Of these, 6-11 can turn into hurricanes – 119 km / h, and 2-5 – powerful hurricanes up to 118 km / h. Note that these forecasts include storms that are already occurring this season.
The researchers note that the Atlantic is experiencing an active start to the hurricane season, with 5 storms reaching tropical storm minimum strength and one already becoming a hurricane. Typically, an average Atlantic storm season produces 14 named storms, 7 of which turn into hurricanes and 3 that turn into major hurricanes.
According to NOAA chief hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosenkrans, the effectiveness of the Atlantic hurricane season was influenced by several factors at once, including warming of the ocean surface and the ongoing El Niño. At the same time, scientists have warned that El Niño will continue in the Northern Hemisphere and winter with a 95% probability.
Note that NOAA’s hurricane forecasts are activity forecasts for the entire season, not landfall. Storm landfall is typically the result of moderate weather patterns and can be predicted about a week after the storm makes landfall.
NOAA researchers also asked everyone living in vulnerable areas to develop a well-thought-out hurricane contingency plan and monitor official channels throughout this season.
Previously Focus He wrote that over the past 20 years, more than 50% of the world’s oceans have changed color: the culprit is “poisonous foam.”
Source: Focus
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