Scientists have been close to achieving thermonuclear energy for 50 years: When will this become a reality?

The energy obtained from thermonuclear fusion, which powers the Sun, is still a dream for scientists. Physicists have had some success, although lately they have been actively working to obtain at least small amounts of useful thermonuclear energy. But this is not yet the amount of thermonuclear energy available to humanity. In his article for Space, American astrophysicist Paul Sutter ponders when people will finally have a clean, efficient and inexhaustible source of electrical energy.

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Pure and unlimited energy

For decades, since humans learned to split atoms to create larger atoms and at the same time release small amounts of energy, scientists have realized the enormous importance of thermonuclear energy to humanity. Ultimately, this clean and unlimited energy, if produced in large quantities, will enable humanity to give up fossil fuels.

Important

Scientists have already made great progress in creating experimental fusion reactors, but what is needed is a truly working reactor that can achieve stable and sustained fusion. But physicists still have problems with this. Fusion energy remains one of those things that is “only 20 years away,” and the wait has been going on for nearly half a century.

Methods of obtaining thermonuclear energy

The main problem is that while fusion is easy to create, it is much more difficult to make the reaction slow and controlled to obtain useful fusion energy from it. Physicists now know that there are two ways to create such energy. However, it should first be noted that physicists cannot obtain more energy than they spend to create the reaction. Simply put, they expended the same energy as they received in output.

• So, one way to obtain thermonuclear energy is called inertial confinement, in which a small target in a reactor is bombarded with laser beams that explode and a brief thermonuclear fusion reaction occurs. US scientists using this method, as written before, by the end of 2022 Focuswas able to obtain “breakeven” thermonuclear energy for the first time. In other words, more energy was released than the fuel consumed to sustain the reaction.
• There is another way to produce fusion energy, called magnetic confinement. Strong magnetic fields in the reactor compress the plasma until it begins to melt. Construction is currently underway on the ITER reactor, which scientists hope will produce the first “breakeven” fusion energy using magnetic confinement.

But existing experimental thermonuclear reactors are not designed to produce electricity, and it is not yet clear how to create such a reactor, as in a nuclear power plant.

When will thermonuclear energy be obtained in large quantities?

According to Sutter, it is very difficult to answer this question because it is not yet clear whether scientists will be able to achieve stable and permanent thermonuclear fusion.

“Although this has no scientific basis, I evaluate the possibilities as follows. The probability of this happening in the next 20 years is 10 percent, the probability of it happening in the 22nd century is 50, 30 percent. The probability of this happening in the next 100 years is 10 percent, and the probability of it never happening is 10 percent.” ‘ writes Sutter.

The astrophysicist explains where he gets these numbers. Achieving thermonuclear energy is a major challenge for all generations, Sutter says. Humanity has implemented similar projects before. For example, we can recall large-scale irrigation projects at the beginning of human history, the construction of huge temples and cities, the development of steam power, railways and much more.

“Often such projects require the participation of people from several generations. Sometimes if we invest a large amount of resources we can accelerate our progress and complete it in a short time, and at the same time we are really lucky.” Sutter writes.

But the scientist also reminds us that humans spent enormous resources on thermonuclear fusion research aimed at obtaining energy in the mid-20th century. But in the end, humanity put more effort into creating bombs rather than power plants. So when the field of power plant research has not progressed as rapidly since the 1950s, it has stagnated and drifted.

Sutter believes this means thermonuclear fusion research can continue for a long time, so we could have the required volume of thermonuclear energy within about 100 years.

As I already wrote FocusAn experimental fusion reactor in South Korea has been upgraded to be able to maintain plasma at 100 million degrees Celsius for longer.