Last year was the hottest year officially recorded, but researchers warn even more record-breaking heat is to come.
The climate crisis has hit the Earth with incredible heat waves, droughts and wildfires. As a result, 2023 has been officially recognized as the warmest year on record, but scientists warn these are just “blooms”. The Daily Mail writes that we will probably see some “fruits” in 2024, and scientists have named the areas that will suffer the most.
Experts from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences have compiled grim maps showing three regions likely to be affected by record heat this year. The main reason for the incredible warmth is El Niño, which has contributed to the observed increase in sea temperatures over the last few years.
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The research suggests that the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines and the Caribbean Sea will be affected by record heat by June this year. Unfortunately, this does not mean that people living in other parts of the planet will be safe.
The team also found that there was a 90% chance that a record global average surface temperature would occur during the same period. One of the most important factors of climate variation around the world is El Niño, which changes weather around the world, placing even more pressure on the Earth’s climate system and increasing the average global temperature.
The study’s authors concluded that this effect is so pronounced, in fact, that it is “the strongest driver of annual climate change on Earth.” In their study, scientists sought to understand how El Niño affects local temperature fluctuations: To do this, they created a model that can predict how hot certain regions will be in an El Niño year.
This model identified the difference between average regional temperatures from July 2023 to June 2024 and the 1951-1980 reference point. The results show that in the moderate scenario, temperatures in the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines and the Caribbean Sea will be record high at 1°C above average.
In the case of the most pessimistic scenario, the consequences will be even more pronounced. Temperature records will also be seen in the Alaska, Amazon and South China Sea regions; Alaska will see peaks of 2.4°C above average.
The model also predicts that even under a mild scenario, there is a 90% chance that average surface temperatures will break the historical record for 2023: under a moderate El Niño, GSMT temperatures will be 1.03 to 1.10°C above average; With a strong El Niño, temperatures will rise 1.06 to 1.20°C above average.
The team also suggests that the world may be at risk of extreme weather events this year. In Alaska, for example, there is a risk of melting glaciers and permafrost, leading to rising seas and potentially runaway warming. At the same time, the risk of extreme wildfires in the Amazon will also increase. Scientists also fear year-round heatwaves will become more intense and dangerous, putting more people at risk.
Previously Focus About how to keep the planet from boiling, he wrote: NASA proposes “freezing” Earth’s atmosphere.
Source: Focus
Ashley Fitzgerald is an accomplished journalist in the field of technology. She currently works as a writer at 24 news breaker. With a deep understanding of the latest technology developments, Ashley’s writing provides readers with insightful analysis and unique perspectives on the industry.