What does Ukraine need to consider its counteroffensive successful?

“Don’t call it a counteroffensive,” Ukrainians say. “This is our offense. Our chance to finally expel the Russian army from our land.

Yes, but what does it take to be successful?

First, let’s not be distracted by Ukraine’s recent stubborn but minor territorial gains in obscure, semi-abandoned cities in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Zaporozhye.

After months of stalemate, images of victorious Ukrainian soldiers with visible signs of combat, waving their country’s blue and yellow flag in front of a bullet-riddled building, are a welcome relief to Ukrainians, but from a strategic perspective, the view this is an interlude.

The most important area of ​​Russian territory in this campaign is in the south: area between the city of ZaporiAndI and he mar Azov.

The so-called “land corridor” connecting Russia to illegally annexed Crimea has remained virtually unchanged in the central part of this strip since the invasion began last year.

Yes Ukraine You can split this corridor in two and keep the land you have reclaimed., then his attack will be a great success.

Thus, he would cut off the path of the Russian troops to the west and make it difficult to replenish the supplies of their garrison in the Crimea.

This does not necessarily mean the end of the war, which some predict could drag on for years, but it will put Ukraine in a strong negotiating position when the inevitable peace talks finally take place.

But the Russians looked at the map a long time ago and came to the same conclusion.

Russia’s response

While Ukraine sent its soldiers to NATO countries to train and prepare its 12 armored brigades for this summer campaign, Moscow spent this time building what is now called “VYes more formidable defensive fortifications peace“.

Ukraine’s path to the coast – let’s not forget its own coastline – is blocked by layers upon layers of Russian minefields, concrete bunkers blocking tanks (known as “dragon’s teeth”), firing positions and trenches wide and deep enough to stop a Leopard tank. “or” Abrams “on tracks.

All of this is covered by predetermined artillery fire zones calibrated to rain explosives down on Ukrainian armored vehicles while they and their crews wait for their engineers to find a way.

The first signs indicate – although this campaign is just beginning – that the Russian defense is resisting.

Ukraine has not yet committed the bulk of its forces, so we are talking about reconnaissance and reconnaissance attacks, designed to locate Russian artillery and search for weak spots in their positions.

In favor of Ukraine morality. Your soldiers are highly motivated and are fighting to liberate their country from the invaders.

Most Russian military personnel do not share this motivation, and in many cases their training, equipment and leadership are inferior to those of Ukraine.

The General Staff in Kyiv hopes that if they make enough of a breakthrough, the collapse in Russian morale will take hold and spread across the front lines as demoralized Russian troops lose their will to fight.

Also in favor of Ukraine is the quality of weapons provided by NATO countries.

Unlike Soviet-designed armored vehicles, NATO tanks and infantry fighting vehicles can often withstand a direct hit, or at least enough to protect the crew inside, who will survive and continue fighting.

But Will this be enough to withstand the might of Russian artillery and drone strikes?

Russia, as a much larger country, may have more resources than Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin, who first started this war, knows that if he succeeds in stalemate the Ukrainians until next year, there is a chance that the United States and other allies will get tired of supporting this costly war. and start putting pressure on Kyiv to reach a compromise on a ceasefire.

Finally, I have an air cover issue., or their absence. Attacking a well-entrenched enemy without sufficient close air support is very risky.

Ukraine knows this, and that is why the West has long been asking the West to supply it with F-16 fighters.

The United States, which manufactures them, did not give the go-ahead until the end of May, when the first preparatory phase of the Ukrainian offensive was already underway.

For Ukraine, the F-16s may arrive too late on the battlefield to play a key role in the early stages of the counteroffensive.

This does not mean that the Ukrainians will lose.

Again and again they proved their dexterity, resourcefulness and ingenuity. They succeeded in driving the Russian army out of Kherson by attacking its rear logistics centers to such an extent that the Russians could no longer supply their troops in that southern city.

Ukraine, equipped with long-range weapons such as Britain’s Storm Shadow cruise missile, will try to do the same now.

But among all the claims and objections to the propaganda war, it could be weeks or even months before we get a clearer picture. who is likely to end up winning this war.

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