Bernardo Arevalo, a progressive candidate who broke with the conservative tendencies of recent governments and introduced himself Anti-Corruption Candidate who will leave the traditional political class behind comfortably won the election this Sunday with 58% of the vote.
His rival, former first lady Sandra Torreswas left at the gates of the presidency for the third time in a row with 37% as a candidate for the ENE, a formation created as a social democratic but turned to conspicuous conservatism and representing the continuity of the current government.
Thousands took to the streets to celebrate the results, fed up with numerous accusations of state corruption and saying they see Arévalo as a hope for change from recent years of institutional decline and increased authoritarianism by the Guatemalan government.
“People are screaming, ‘Enough of this corruption. (…). We will work to ensure institutions that have earned their trust (…). This victory belongs to the people, and now, united as the people of Guatemala, we will fight corruption,” Arévalo said in his first appearance after learning of his victory, in which he called his future term “the government of a new spring.”
“I congratulate Bernardo Arevalo and invite you to begin an orderly transition the day after the results are official,” the incumbent tweeted. Alejandro Giammattei.
Arevalo secured victory this Sunday after weeks of uncertainty about whether he could actually participate and eventually become president on January 14, 2024, as the timeline stipulates.
The reason is that since his unexpected entry into the second round, his party Movimiento Semilla has been the subject of an investigation into alleged irregularities in its creation by the Guatemalan prosecutor’s office, headed by some judges included in the list of “corrupt and undemocratic officials” from the United States.
And although the Constitutional Court had already suspended the suspension of the party, the head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office to Combat Impunity, Rafael Currucis, insisted on Thursday that there was evidence that “after August 20, they will have to register the suspension of the party.” match,” Semilla assured.
Arévalo reacted this Sunday with “calmness” in the face of what he called “political harassment by corrupt judges” with the intention of “intimidating” his candidacy. “I would like to think that the strength of this victory will make it clear that there will be no attempts to disrupt the electoral process”, he claimed.
Who is Bernardo Arevalo?
A 64-year-old sociologist and former diplomat, he is the son of Juan José Arevalo, Guatemala’s first popularly elected president since the 1944 revolution.
His father went into exile when the former president Jacobo Arbenz he was overthrown in 1954 after the military intervention of the United States, so Bernardo Arevalo was born in Uruguay – which was used against him by his rival during the election campaign – and returned with his family to Guatemala as a teenager.
During his career, he has held positions such as Consul in Israel, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in his country, and Ambassador to Spain.
He is currently a member of Congress for Movimiento Semilla, a party that first emerged as a think tank after the 2015 protests that led to the resignation of the then president. Otto Perez Molina, spiced with political corruption scandals for which he was eventually convicted.
Arevalo was the formation’s first presidential candidate since the former Attorney General’s nomination in 2019. Thelma Aldana it was not finally sanctioned by the electoral authorities.
“He is not the first leftist to come to power on the democratic scene: Social Democrat Alvaro Colom, ironically ex-husband of Sandra Torres, has already done so. What Arevalo does have is a much more progressive stance due to the very origins of the party,” he says. Jahir DabroiAssociation for Studies and Social Studies (ASIES) of Guatemala.
His ideology has already been rejected by the economic elite and the groups that have traditionally held power in the country. Many of his opponents called Arévalo a “communist” and assured him that if he became president, he would end up expropriating land from the richest (which he never said).
What was one of the main flags of his election campaign? fight against corruption in the state from a special cabinet for the fight against corruption and a monitoring commission independent of the government, created for the same purpose. Although he does not think about his return, he praised the work of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (Cicig), expelled from the country in 2019.
He also said that he would demand the resignation of the country’s Attorney General. Consuelo Porras, The US calls him “corrupt” and responsible for investigating dozens of journalists and anti-corruption judges who eventually chose exile. Although he clarified that he would not be able to intervene in this regard as these were court cases, Arévalo still expressed his wish that they could return to Guatemala.
He also stated that he would defend the rights of the LGBT population and that his government would not allow any discrimination against them, which his opponents used to confirm that he sought to legalize equal marriage and promote abortion. Arevalo denied this.
fight against corruption
The main task of the next President of Guatemala will be to continue efforts to improve the living conditions and opportunities of more than half of the population living below the poverty line and half of the children suffering from chronic malnutrition.
Considered the largest economy in Central America, the country also has one of the largest inequalities in Latin America. This is reflected in the migration crisis, which continues to intensify, and in the lack of sufficient basic health and educational services, especially in rural areas.
Although if Arevalo has a specific task, it will be to try to fulfill his main promise to end the corruption that, according to analysts and international organizations, has kept the state in its hands for many years.
“It will be difficult, because what we know as a “corrupt agreement” has been in place in the country for 20 years, and it will be difficult to break it in four years of rule. There are many interests involved here, and it will not be easy to negotiate with those players who have retained privileges in the state for so long, ”says the Guatemalan political scientist. Gabriela Carrera.
His other proposals include controlling prisons and strengthening the National Civil Police in terms of security, creating jobs through road and infrastructure construction with public investment, opening more than 400 new health posts, and providing scholarships. for students.
The truth is that the high hopes that many have placed in a new party that promises so much change, like Semilla, must overcome the fact that have very few allies.
Among them, some social actors, indigenous authorities, urban and youth groups have been able to gain support that has already played a critical role in its success, with a powerful social media mobilization initiated after the results of the first round.
Problems and difficulties
But it is more than likely that she will face rejection from agents of great power and influence in the country: big businessmen and the traditional economic elite, the evangelical church and the military sector.
“One of its shortcomings is that we have a political class that has framed the powers of the state around a not very noble way of doing politics, but closely associated with cases of corruption. The control of public institutions is designed to prevent them from being controlled by other actors who may question corruption or misuse of funds, and this can become an obstacle for their government, ”says analyst Dabroy.
Arevalo’s difficulties can also be seen in the broad conservative-majority Congress, where Semilla has 23 out of 160 deputies, behind pro-government VAMOS and Torres’ UNE, who have demonstrated their ability to build alliances in the past.
But according to Carrera, director of public action at Rafael Landívar University, “The hope that negotiations with various actors in the country can work is that if anything has an Arévalo profile, it is the possibility of mediation. He is a good negotiator and this could be a big advantage in his future government.”
However, given that the investigation against Semilla is still ongoing and there is a long time before Arevalo takes office in January, experts recommend staying pending decisions that may come from the judiciary.
“It doesn’t look like it will end Sunday’s elections, but we will likely continue to see actors trying to manipulate the electoral process,” Dabra predicted.
“We cannot rule out new surprises, because they have been presented to us since the first day of this electoral process. Regardless of who wins, I’m sure there will be many dissatisfied people and The outlook can be challenging.” Carrera agreed.
remember, that you can receive notifications from BBC Mundo. Download the new version of our app and activate them so you don’t miss out on our best content.
Source: La Opinion
Alfred Hart is an accomplished journalist known for his expert analysis and commentary on global affairs. He currently works as a writer at 24 news breaker, where he provides readers with in-depth coverage of the most pressing issues affecting the world today. With a keen insight and a deep understanding of international politics and economics, Alfred’s writing is a must-read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the world we live in.