Photo: © Global Look Press/Hitoshi Yamada/ZUMAPRESS.com
The head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the risks for the international economy have shifted towards a tough scenario. She stated this during her speech at a meeting of the State Duma committees considering the “Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the period 2024-2025.”
According to Nabiullina, the scenario of a global crisis in the world is not ruled out. But at the same time, she noted that the Central Bank’s baseline scenario for the global economy is considered the most possible.
“In recent months, the situation and the balance of risks for the global economy – they have somewhat shifted, if not in the direction of a full-scale global crisis, but a tougher version of the development of the situation,” – she said.
Thus, from the base scenario of the regulator it follows that the global economy will not face new significant shocks. It is assumed that the Central Banks will raise rates to fight inflation, which will affect the pace of economic growth. But this will not lead to a large-scale recession.
In parallel, in a more negative scenario, the Bank of Russia predicts that the increase in rates by the Central Banks may not be enough to fight inflation. As a result, rates will be high, which will increase the cost of servicing debt and reduce the value of assets.
Elvira Nabiullina suggested that geopolitical tensions would increase under this scenario. In addition, in her opinion, there will be fragmentation, as well as regionalization of the large-scale economy.
Nabiullina also predicted the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions.
“We are considering this scenario with increased sanctions, and this will be another factor in the deterioration of the situation in the global economy, in turn,” – she said.
The head of the Central Bank believes that all of the above factors are capable of repeating a crisis comparable in scale to 2008-2009.
Elvira Nabiullina explained that because of this, the demand for the main Russian exports will fall, and a deeper decline in GDP and high inflation will also be recorded.
The Chairman of the Bank of Russia noted that in the context of sanctions and a large-scale crisis, it is necessary to accelerate the restructuring of the Russian economy.
“This is not a reason for us to just wait for events to develop, as they say, wait for the weather by the sea,” – said Nabiullina.
In her opinion, perestroika looks different for each sphere. Someone needs to look for new markets, and someone needs to look for alternative sources of raw materials supplies from abroad.
According to the IMF, according to the results of the current year, the growth of the global economy will be 3.2 percent, and next year – 2.7 percent. At the same time, last year the corresponding indicator was at the level of 6 percent. Against the backdrop of a falling economy, inflation is growing in many states, which is why the Central Banks are increasing rates.
Earlier, Elvira Nabiullina said that the Russian banking system withstood the shocks of 2022 well and maintains a margin of safety.
Source: Ren.tv
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