In the cash exchange market, stability was observed in the national currency throughout May. Is a decrease in the exchange rate possible and when can a change be expected?
At the end of May, positive trends in the exchange rate developed in Ukraine, this is due to the seasonal factor and the measures taken by the NBU in the spring. In this respect Focus said Sergey Kucheryavy, Director of the Liquidity and Securities Control Department of Kredobank.
According to him, there is a certain period of calm expectation in the interbank foreign exchange market.
“We do not observe a serious activity in importers. The first half of the summer is a seasonally inactive period for the importers of energy resources, which have a significant share in imports. However, we cannot ignore the increase in importers’ foreign exchange demand in August due to both the increase in import volume and the increase in energy prices.“, – said Sergey Kucheryavy.
stressedthat the situation in the foreign exchange market has stabilized and the hryvnia has a tendency to strengthen, which leads to a decrease in devaluation expectations of the population and, accordingly, a decrease in the interest of the population in cash currency.
“An additional factor for strengthening the hryvnia is the actions of the regulator aimed at increasing the supply of cash. In particular, when calculating the volume of sales to the population of cash currency that the bank can sell on the foreign exchange market, the Expert makes up not 100%, but 120% of the volume of purchases of non-cash currency.
According to that, The main factors that determine the situation in the cash exchange market in the medium term will be the development of the events in the war, the devaluation expectations of the people and the foreign exchange supply.
Previously Focus He wrote that the currency corridor of possible exchange rate fluctuations remained almost unchanged in May: 37-38 UAH / $ and 40-41 UAH / €, and one of the reasons for the stability was the shortage of cash hryvnia.
As reported, the NBU sold $1.2 billion in just three weeks in May and, according to experts, there is still a strain on gold and foreign exchange reserves, despite record levels with the help of international partners.
Source: Focus
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