A new front has opened in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to Bloomberg analysts, highlighting the fragility of oil exports from the country’s western ports following reports of drone attacks on facilities on the Baltic Sea coast.
Russia could lose 40 percent of its oil exports if Ukraine attacks terminals in the Baltic Sea. Bloomberg reported this.
Last week, the first Ukrainian drone arrived in Russia’s Leningrad region, about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the border. Russian authorities said the plane was heading to St. He said it was shot down without causing damage over a private oil terminal in St. Petersburg. Another attack caused a fire that closed the gas concentrator plant in the port of Ust-Luga of PJSC Novatek, which supplies fuel to the Russian army.
Important
The facility is also located next to some of Russia’s most important oil export terminals. Oil market expert Sergei Vakulenko explained that regular attacks or heavy drones could disrupt the functioning of Baltic ports and lead to a decrease in export volumes. If that happens, “Russia will not have many viable alternatives,” he said.
Maintaining the stability of Russian oil exports is critical for the Kremlin, which derives approximately 30% of its total budget revenues from the country’s energy sector. The flow of petrodollars is helping finance the war in Ukraine, now in its third year, as well as funding domestic spending ahead of presidential elections in March.
Serious disruptions in exports from the Baltic countries are also felt worldwide. Russia is one of the world’s three largest oil producers and last year was China’s largest supplier. The West has long been reluctant to allow Russian oil to appear on the world market due to the impact it would have on prices.
“It would be a big shock if Baltic exports stopped,” said Viktor Kurilov, senior oil market analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy A/S.
These facilities account for more than 75% of Russia’s Ural crude, a key export mix shipped to dozens of countries around the world, according to analytics firm Kpler.
According to analysts, in the event of an attack, it will be almost impossible for domestic producers to divert the flow of this volume to another port.
St. Attack on an oil depot in St. Petersburg
On the night of January 18, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil depot in the Leningrad region of Russia. This is the largest terminal for the transshipment of petroleum products in the Baltic region and its production capacity is up to 12.5 million tonnes per year.
Ukraine’s minister for strategic industries, Alexander Kamyshin, said on January 18 in St. He said the drones that attacked an oil depot in St. Petersburg were Ukrainian-made. They traveled 1250 km.
ISW’s Tula and St. Let us also remind you that it was reported that new attacks on St. Petersburg could disable Russian air defense systems. Russian troops use short-range systems such as Pantsir, so again they will most likely not be able to engage all major potential targets.
Source: Focus
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