Russia forces its attack drones to fly over difficult terrain, avoid mobile fire teams, and circle the sky firing SAMs before launching missiles. Experts told FocusWhat does this give the invaders and what to expect next?
Russia has been carrying out major attacks on Ukraine since December 29, launching missiles and Shahed-type attack aircraft. Focus I understood how drone attacks have changed, why they have become more dangerous for Ukrainians, and whether it is possible to better prepare for them.
Unusual routes of the “Shaheds”
According to official statistics of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Russia launched 184 Shahed kamikaze drones in five days:
- 29 – 27 December Shahed UAVs;
- December 30 – 5 UAVs;
- 31 – 21 December UAVs;
- January 1 – 87 UAVs at night and 9 UAVs during the day;
- January 2 – 35 UAVs.
For comparison, during the entire month of November, the Russian Armed Forces launched 349 such drones.
Ukrainian military officer and radio technologist Sergei Beskrestnov, with the call sign “Flash”, wrote on his Facebook page that the Shahed attack on January 1 was very different from previous ones – the drones constantly maneuvered and flew in a “semicircle” without straight sections. route. In addition, the Russians used Shahed in black, which is difficult to see at night. At the same time, unusually little noise was heard of mobile teams shooting down UAVs.
“What can I say? Our enemy is learning. Is anyone analyzing all this? Is there anyone drawing conclusions? Is he trying to react immediately and move forward? I don’t know,” Sergei Beskrestnov summarized.
“Shaheds” are circulating against air defense
Perhaps the Witnesses had flown strange routes because of previous preparations. Prominent Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper wrote on his website on December 29 that the Russians have been using kamikaze drones for “mapping” for the last three months or even longer. The Russian Armed Forces forced unmanned aerial vehicles to fly over Ukraine, monitored the reaction of Ukrainian air defense forces and identified which anti-aircraft missile systems were protecting objects of interest to them.
To do this, stray ammunition flies along a long curved path resembling a semicircle. Tom Cooper, for example, showed a map with the approximate routes of the “Shaheds” according to data from the Ukrainian publication Texty.org.ua dated June 25: the drones took off from Crimea, flew in a northern direction over the Nikolaev region, then turned southwest in the Kirovograd region and finally Odessa We flew to .
According to the analyst, the Russians draw such routes because their medium and long-range air defense systems depend on radars for guidance, and thus they manage to shoot down many Russian missiles and UAVs. The Russians want to catch the air defense forces by surprise by striking them with unmanned aerial vehicles “from the side” or “from behind”. To do this, they investigate the complexes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using communications, electronic and radio intelligence (COMINT, ELINT and SIGINT), as well as human intelligence, that is, espionage. The fact is that any transmitting radar can be detected at a distance of approximately twice the maximum detection range. For example: A radar that can detect targets at a distance of up to 100 kilometers is detected by ELINT/SIGINT tools at a distance of up to 200 kilometers.
By learning the locations of air defense systems and marking them on the map, Russian troops can send Shahed or missiles beyond the range of detection systems to hit targets. Drones have a big advantage in this regard because they can be programmed to fly not in a straight line, but along a complex route with turns in the right places.
Commenting on the attack that took place on the night of December 29, the expert said, “They clearly think that they have collected enough information for the attack so far. They did this last night as well.” said.
Military expert and commentator Mikhail Zhirokhov in commentary Focus He also suggested that the Russians are using “Shaheds”, or rather “Geranis”, to “open” the air defense system, since their production is already localized in the Russian Federation. It is impractical to use Patriot, IRIR-T or other complexes against drones, so Ukrainian air defense crews miss such targets without reaction, leaving them to mobile fire groups designed specifically to combat UAVs.
“In any case, radar stations are working, and simultaneously with the flight of the Witnesses, the Russians detect such vehicles using satellite reconnaissance or electronic reconnaissance aircraft. Then, based on analysis, they conclude that there is an area of air strikes.” “The defense has intensified,” he explained.
Mikhail Zhirokhov added that mobile groups cover only some objects and cannot protect literally everything in Ukraine. Therefore, the Russians are looking for targets not covered by any air defense systems and then try to attack them with Shahed.
“That is the reason for such complex routes, they launch the Shahads from occupied Crimea and fly to the Chernihiv region,” the expert emphasized.
What equipment is needed to fight Shaheds?
In a conversation with Alexander Kovalenko, military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Focus He noted that the Russian military uses a fairly predictable method of attacking Shahed drones, placing their orbiters in impassable terrain such as river beds, swamps, lakes, that is, places where mobile groups’ pickup trucks cannot pass. In addition, the Russians often forced UAVs to fly in circles to stay in the airspace as long as possible and distract the air defenses.
The Russian Armed Forces were able to synchronize the presence of the Witnesses in the sky with the launch of missiles so that there was minimal pause between them. This approach distracts attention, encourages the use of anti-aircraft missile systems and launches them.
“Expensive air defense missiles are wasted when there is a danger of an object penetrating, for example, when a group cannot be intercepted through an area it cannot pass through. So they wanted to force the air defenses to reload just in time.” The moment when missiles are launched to increase the likelihood of a breakthrough. But judging by the effectiveness of the countermeasures, they failed,” Alexander Kovalenko summarized.
According to him, it is possible to combat the new Shahed launch tactics by shooting them in difficult terrain, but for this Ukraine needs the appropriate means. If we talk about water obstacles, you can use boats with machine guns and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) of equal power to groups on land. Air-based equipment such as light attack helicopters Cobra or Viper may be more effective against Shahed.
“The US Navy occasionally sells them as surplus property, auctions are usually held every spring, last year Bahrain bought two squadrons. Ukraine needs to line up and buy them. They are not the most effective squadrons on the battlefield, but they are a tool to intercept kamikaze drones, Military analyst says He stated that it would be very effective and that even six helicopters would increase the effectiveness of the intervention.
Turboprop aircraft such as the EMB 314 Super Tucano attack aircraft can also combat Shahedes. These are currently in service with the Brazilian military and are also used by the United States, so Ukraine may well receive them. Helicopters and planes will become a universal option because they can fly over any terrain: over rivers, over swamps. In general, Alexander Kovalenko believes that it is very important for Ukraine to gradually increase the number of short- and medium-range air defense systems.
Drones are the harbingers of missiles
Alexander Kovalenko, military-political observer of the Information Resistance group, in a comment to Oboz.ua, noted a common feature of the intense shelling of Russia from December 29 to January 2 – it all started with the Shahed-131/136 raids and tracking missiles did. According to his observations, Russia uses unmanned aerial vehicles not only to destroy targets, but also to detect and exhaust air defenses, distracting the military with unpredictable maneuvers.
“At the same time, the ROV (Russian occupation forces – ed.) synchronized the launches, flight trajectories and routes to ensure that the Shahed-131/136 remained in the airspace (AP) for as long as possible; thus the time interval between flights was minimized. the destruction of the last kamikaze drone and the destruction of the first missiles that entered the airspace,” explained the expert.
As a result, Ukrainian air defense forces have little time to reload, so Russian missiles have a higher chance of breaking through. Defense forces are forced to use different response algorithms against these threats. Combined missile and drone strikes not only dismantle the invaders’ Ukrainian air defense forces, but also increase their overall scale, increasing the likelihood of a breakthrough.
“All this shows that the ROV is developing tactics that they will use regularly in the future – starting terrorist attacks with a kamikaze drone raid and continuing with a combination of different types of missile weapons,” summarized Alexander Kovalenko.
Source: Focus
Ashley Fitzgerald is an accomplished journalist in the field of technology. She currently works as a writer at 24 news breaker. With a deep understanding of the latest technology developments, Ashley’s writing provides readers with insightful analysis and unique perspectives on the industry.