If an earthquake hits Istanbul soon, roughly equal in strength to those that struck southern Turkey on February 6, the consequences would be devastating. Such a forecast done experts in an article in the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet.
At the same time, seismologists note that the largest Turkish city is located at the junction of the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates, just 15-20 kilometers south of the section of the North Anatolian fault passing under the Sea of Marmara. Therefore, an earthquake in Istanbul with a magnitude of at least 7 is a matter of time. Scientists give a 65% chance that it will happen by 2030 and a 95% chance within 70 years.
“In other words, the earthquake in Kahramanmarash (provinces where the disaster occurred in 2023. – Approx. REN TV) – this is almost a rehearsal for the Istanbul earthquake“, the article says.
In 1999, just 90 kilometers south of Istanbul, the strongest earthquake of magnitude 7.6, known as Izmit, already occurred. As a result, more than 12 thousand people died, and destruction was recorded, including in Istanbul.
Since then, more earthquake-resistant buildings have been built in this city. However, the publication conducted a study and found that 70% of Istanbul’s houses were built before 2000 Gorda, that is, according to the old standards, and were not designed for the load from a natural disaster. And the newspaper also doubts the safety of 30% of “modern” buildings, citing the example that in Kahramanmarash the latest residential complexes, positioned as earthquake-resistant, were destroyed.
In addition, in 2012, a project was launched in Turkey to strengthen buildings deemed unsafe, as well as to demolish very dangerous slums. However, official statistics on what percentage of homes were fortified have not been released.
According to preliminary calculations by the Kandilli Observatory of Bogazici University and the Earthquake Research Institute, given in the article, in the event of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 in Istanbul, at least 211,000 houses will be seriously damaged, with an average of three people living in each apartment. The newspaper also reminds that about 50% of the Turkish economy is concentrated in Istanbul.
