War and coronavirus: Russia is experiencing a ‘demographic nightmare’ – The Economist

A demographic tragedy is unfolding in Russia – in the last three years the country has lost about 2 million more than usual due to wars, diseases and migration. The British newspaper The Economist writes about this in an article published on March 4.

The publication points out that the number of Russians born in April 2022 did not exceed the number during the months of the Nazi occupation. And since many men of military age have died in the war in Ukraine or are in exile, there are at least 10 million more women than men.

Causes of the demographic crisis in Russia

According to journalists, the war is not the only cause of the “demographic nightmare” in Russia, but it significantly aggravated it.

Thus, according to Western experts, 175,000-200,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured in the last year. Between 500,000 and 1 million educated young people escaped from the meat grinder by going abroad. Even if Russia had no other demographic problems, it would still be painful to lose so many people in such a short time. But even without that, the war’s casualties place an even greater burden on a dwindling, sick population.

The Economist writes that the roots of the crisis in Russia go back 30 years. The country’s population peaked in 1994 – 149 million people. Since then, the population has zigzagged in decline. In 2021 it was 145 million (this figure does not include the 2.4 million inhabitants of Crimea, which Russia captured in 2014 and included in its national accounts, according to the UN). According to UN estimates, if current trends continue, this figure can only reach 120 million people in 50 years. This would make Russia the 15th largest country in the world, up from sixth in 1995.

According to independent demographer Aleksey Raksha, formerly of the state statistics office, the number of births recorded in April 2022 was the lowest since the 18th century, if we consider only the years of peace. April was a particularly brutal month, but it was a revealing look at a chronic problem.

According to the state statistical agency, in 2020 and 2021, the population of Russia decreased by 1.3 million people, and the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1.7 million people. The largest decline, according to the 2021 census, was among ethnic Russians, whose numbers fell by 5.4 million in 2010-21. Their share in the population fell from 78% to 72%.

All of this started before the war and reflects the terrible covid epidemic in Russia. The official death toll from the disease was 388,091, but journalists estimate the total death toll in 2020-23 to be between 1.2 million and 1.6 million. This is comparable to China and the USA, which have much larger populations. Russia may have the highest number of covid deaths in the world after India and the highest death rate of any country with 850-1,100 deaths per 100,000 people.

If we add the deaths from the pandemic to the losses from war and mobilization, Russia will lose from 1.9 to 2.8 million people in 2020-23, in addition to the usual demographic breakdown.

According to the publication, the demographic crisis could thwart plans to increase the size of the Russian Armed Forces by 350,000 over the next three years.

Recall, on March 3, it was reported that Russia held an online referendum for the independence of five republics at once. At least 5.6 million people attended.

Earlier on February 23, the head of the Main Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov said that Russia will soon have to withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine, otherwise this will lead to the rapid collapse of the Russian army. diet.