Three in one boat and China: what about the alliance of the USA, Japan and South Korea

Reconciliation and the “Washington Declaration” between Japan and South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida paid an official visit to South Korea. This is the first official visit by a Japanese head of government in 12 years. The trip took place in response to South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol’s visit to Tokyo in March this year.

The meeting in Tokyo is the first important step towards normalizing the complex bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea. Under the leadership of President Yoon Seok-yeol, who came to power after the presidential election last spring, South Korea embarked on a course to improve its relations with the Land of the Rising Sun. The neoconservative administration considers it right to approach a partner who shares common security interests with Seoul, especially with regard to the North Korean nuclear threat. Thus, the deepening of military-political cooperation with Japan was declared one of the tasks of South Korean foreign policy.

Seoul and Tokyo have already announced their readiness to strengthen security cooperation to counter North Korea’s nuclear missile program, but the key point of the joint statement was the countries’ intent to engage in close consultations on regional security issues in the Indo-Pacific. the importance of tripartite cooperation in the US – Republic of Korea – Japan format on regional and security issues. In this context, Yoon Sok-yeol referred to the “Washington Declaration” signed by the United States and South Korea. The document aims to contain the nuclear missile threat from North Korea and does not exclude the participation of Japan.

Meanwhile, briefly summarizing the results of the first year of his presidency, Yoon Seok-yeol drew attention to improving relations with Japan, strengthening the alliance with the United States, the “Washington Declaration” and strengthening tripartite cooperation. In the field of security between the USA, South Korea and Japan.

Axle and spokes. How can Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo interact?

The connecting link and key driving force for creating the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle is the United States, where the tripartite alliance could become one of the pillars of the security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region.

One of the US foreign policy strategies is the so-called “axle and lever” system. It is based on bilateral agreements between the United States and its allies in the region: Japan, Republic of Korea, Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan. The axis is the United States itself, whose deals with its strategic allies in the region are at stake. Such a system is the opposite of a “network” strategic alliance based on the principles of equal participation and collective decision-making, as, for example, in NATO.

In recent years, especially under the direction of Joe Biden, the “axle and spoke” system has been complemented by a network of small multilateral formats – this is the Quadruple Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes Australia, India, the United States and Japan. As well as AUKUS, which consists of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Now the network can expand with a new format: USA, Japan, Republic of Korea.

Trade wars and semiconductors. Why is the US interested in partnering with Japan and South Korea?

The biggest challenge for the US in the region is not the nuclear missile threat from North Korea, but China’s growing influence. Therefore, the primary task is not the military-political consolidation of the allies, but the economic one. Protecting supply chains, minimizing the technological dependence of US partners on China is a priority for Washington in connection with the interaction of the economies of three states (USA, Japan, South Korea) within the framework of IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic). Prosperity Platform), the formation of a technological alliance is a priority Chip4 (USA, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) and the removal of obstacles that have accumulated over the past few years in bilateral trade relations between Seoul and Tokyo.

Important

This refers specifically to the consequences of the trade war in 2019, when Japan removed South Korea from the “white list” of countries providing a simplified export control procedure, and also imposed restrictions on the three countries’ exports to South Korea. types of materials used in semiconductor manufacturing: fluorine hydrogen, fluorinated polyimide and photoresistor. Seoul filed a complaint with the WTO about the restrictions imposed by Japan. Now, after two meetings between Fumio Kishida and Yoon Seok Yeol, the process of eliminating these issues has been started.

Washington plans to actively involve South Korea in cooperation in the field of semiconductors, especially within the framework of the Chip 4 format (USA, Republic of Korea, Taiwan and Japan), as a means to limit Beijing from technologies. In February this year, South Korea, the United States and Japan held the first session of the newly formed Economic Security Dialogue. The parties discussed cooperation in the field of new and key technologies such as quantum, bio and space technologies, as well as the stability of supply chains for semiconductors, batteries and critical minerals.

On land and at sea: military cooperation between the United States, Japan and Korea

However, in the presence of an existential threat to Seoul and Tokyo from North Korea, tripartite cooperation in the military field has also intensified recently. Last year, anti-submarine exercises were held by the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan for the first time in five years. Last month, South Korea, the United States and Japan deployed naval missile defense exercises in international waters in the Sea of ​​Japan. More than 60 South Korean military aircraft, including the F-35A, F-15K, and KF-16 fighter aircraft, and approximately 40 US Air Force aircraft, including F-16 fighter aircraft, Marine Corps A-10 and F-35B attack aircraft, jet FA -18 aircraft. Also included were the South Korean destroyer Yulgok Yi I, the American missile destroyer USS Benfold, and the Japanese Atago.

The South Korean Navy said the joint exercises were aimed at deepening security cooperation and more effectively countering the growing missile threats from North Korea. Their goal was to increase the interoperability and combined operational capabilities of the fighters of the three countries.

Intelligence and military information exchange: satellites and missiles

A promising form of cooperation in the US-South Korea-Japan triangle could be the exchange of intelligence data. Monitoring North Korea’s missile tests and other military activities is an important task for the three countries, and it certainly makes sense that one of the main outcomes of the meeting between Yoon Seok-yeol and Fumio Kishida in March was the decision to renew GSOMIA. – General Security Military Information Exchange Agreement (GSOMIA). Information Agreement), after being frozen in 2019 due to deterioration in bilateral relations.

According to the South Korean news agency Yonhap, the United States, South Korea and Japan agreed to establish a real-time exchange of information on North Korean missile launches through the integration of the Seoul and Tokyo radar systems, mediated by Washington. Specific Allied plans in this area will be discussed at the meeting of heads of defense departments in Singapore in early June. In addition, this issue will be on the agenda during the meetings between the leaders of the three states in Hiroshima on May 19-21.

It is assumed that US Indo-Pacific Command will act as the main link and coordinator in this process. In particular, South Korea, the United States and Japan will be able to exchange information instantly by gaining access to radar and command and control systems through the US Indo-Pacific Command. Since it was impossible to directly interconnect the radar systems of non-allied South Korea and Japan, it was decided that it would be best to use the United States as an ally on both sides.

On the Verge of a New Alliance: Data Collection on China and Beyond

It is quite possible that it will replace an agreement on the exchange of electronic intelligence data between South Korea, Japan and the United States. GSOMYA and similar bilateral agreements between Washington and each of the two allies. Thus, potentially the US-South Korea-Japan triangle could function in the form of an intelligence alliance like the “Five Eyes” (US, UK, New Zealand, Australia, Canada) that would primarily aim at collecting data on military activity. Information about the maneuvers of the DPRK as well as possibly the National Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China.

Important

In this context, it is important to note another trend in American foreign policy: increased coordination between the Euro-Atlantic and Asian allies of the United States. In 2020, NATO started a dialogue with Indo-Pacific partners, which includes Australia, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and Japan. In 2022, the leaders of the four partner countries were invited for the first time to the NATO summit in Madrid in June.

In early 2023, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Seoul and Tokyo during his Asia tour. He announced the alliance’s intention to expand its presence in the region, apparently at the expense of Japan and South Korea. This is accomplished, among other things, as part of the implementation of the Global NATO concept – extending the alliance’s cooperation to the global level.

Thus, it can be observed today that the foundations of a new association are gradually forming in the region: the USA, Japan and South Korea.

It is premature to say exactly what form this union will take in the future, but it is possible to foresee the multifaceted nature: the economic and technological vector of tripartite cooperation will be replaced by a military-political one, since its presence in the region will be threatened by threats such as North Korea’s nuclear missile program, the PRC’s The expansion of the South and East China Seas in the waters of the South and East China Seas (where the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are in dispute between Japan and China) cannot escape the attention of the Straits, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, the smoldering conflict in Taiwan.

Of course, in order to form a full-fledged alliance, a number of difficulties need to be overcome. However, under the most favorable conditions, the alliance of the USA, Japan and South Korea will become a key component of the new security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region.