How the failed Wagner uprising could affect Russia’s war in Ukraine

Angel Bermudez (@angelbermudez)

BBC news world

They are known for the cruelty of their methods. And for the Ukrainian army, they were a formidable enemy.

Regardless, the Wagner group’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine appears to be coming to an end.

Last Saturday, the leader of this “private military company,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched an unusual armed march from Ukraine to Moscow, which President Vladimir Putin called a “betrayal,” a “stab in the back.”

Following an agreement brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin forced his forces to return the same Saturday before arriving in the Russian capital, and this Monday insisted on pointing out that this mobilization was not a coup attempt, but a “protest.”

“The purpose of the march was to prevent the destruction of Wagner. and bring to justice officials who, through their unprofessional actions, have made a large number of mistakes,” he said in a veiled reference to Russian military commanders in an audio message broadcast on Telegram.

However, it does not appear that the Wagner group will continue to play a role in either Russia or its war against Ukraine.

This Monday, Putin said that he would abide by the agreement reached with Lukashenka so that those Wagnerites who did not shed blood in Saturday’s actions could sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense or move to Belarus.

But how will this affect Russia’s war against Ukraine in practice?

No news at the front

“I don’t think it will have that much of an impact on the war in Ukraine, at least in the short term,” says Matthew Orr, a Eurasia analyst at Rane, a risk analysis firm.

“The Wagnerites who participated in these events were already withdrawn from the front line and, in fact, even those who did not participate were also not on the front line in Ukraine, but mainly in their rear camps. So Russia will not lose many forces that it would like to use in the war in Ukraine or could use in the war in Ukraine in the future.”

Zach Whitlin, chief analyst at consultancy Eurasia Group, also does not expect these developments to have a major impact on the war, at least not in the coming weeks or months.

He emphasizes that Wagner troops were not deployed in areas where Ukraine is developing a counteroffensivemuch south of the country.

Waning Power

Analysts point out that the Wagner group played a prominent role in the 2022 war, especially in the battle for control of the city of Bakhmut, but has since diminished in importance.

“The cost of the Wagner Group has been declining over the past year. They were used for the most risky missions and were at the forefront of the fighting, absorbing losses. From this point of view, they were useful to the Russian military,” says Vitlin.

The heavy casualties suffered by the Wagner Group in conducting operations at Bakhmut were, according to Matthew Orr, one of the factors that led to its demise.

“Many parts of it, and in particular those that consist of prisoners [que habían sido liberados a cambio en alistarse] they participated in many very risky and dangerous attacks. And during this time they have worn out a lot. This is the main reason for his downfall. Ultimately, of course, they don’t have the resources to compete with the regular Russian military.”

He adds that to this material and the loss of life is added the fact that Prigozhin began to make sharp political statements, asking questions of Russian military leaders.in particular, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

This clash between the leader of the Wagner group and the Russian military leaders came to a head on June 10, when it was announced that the volunteer soldiers [como los mercenarios de Wagner] Those who fought in Ukraine had to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense, which in fact meant the subordination of these fighters to Moscow, and not to Prigozhin.

This initiative, which received Putin’s public support a few days later, was supposed to provoke a rebellion by the founder of this private army.

In any case, Whitlin notes that Estimated to number less than 20,000, Wagner mercenaries make up a small percentage of Russia’s total armed forces.so while recruiting them to the MO may make a small contribution, it doesn’t matter much.

Opportunity for Ukraine

But what about Ukraine, could conflict within Russian forces be an opportunity to bolster their counteroffensive?

“Ukraine may have an incentive to act in this troubled time” Zach Whitlin told BBC Mundo, noting that this is the type of situation that is expected as the military offensive is underway.

For his part, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said this weekend that such a situation in Russia could favor Kyiv.

“As the Russians become distracted and divided, it may be harder for them to continue their aggression against Ukraine,” he said.

However, Russian attacks on Ukraine did not stop over the weekend, and according to U.S. officials and analysts consulted New York Times, Ukrainian forces appear to have yet to find any gaps in the Russian defense that could be exploited..

And what about Russia? Is it possible that Putin will decide to launch a major offensive to show his strength after this crisis, as some analysts suggest?

“It’s possible,” Whitlin says. “Of course we don’t have a window to see what Putin is thinking right now, so it’s very hard to know for sure if he’s considering it.”

“Over the past six months, Russia has been bombing infrastructure across the country, not just on the battlefield, and there were times when it seemed like it was doing more strikes on Ukraine to send a message.” , he adds.

This indicates that other possible responses from Moscow, about which there are questions, are the use of tactical nuclear weapons or the sabotage of nuclear plants in Ukraine.

“The answer to that is that they are all possible, but we don’t think they are the most likely, although it’s fair to say that they may now have a higher probability, but I don’t think those are the options that make the most sense,” he added.

For Matthew Orr, what happened to the Wagner group does not change Russia’s fundamental calculations in Ukraine.

“It will have a relatively small impact on their ability to continue the war. Putin has become embroiled in this war and must participate in it at any cost.. For him, all these dynamics remain the same. So you stay busy. And Russia retains the ability to move forward,” he concludes.

Against all odds, there are analysts who are wondering what impact what happened this weekend will have on Russian public opinion and support for Putin in the military.

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