The age-old dispute: will the conflict between Venezuela and Guyana end in a referendum?

Recently, a referendum was held in Venezuela regarding the disputed Guyana-Essequibo region. The conflict between Caracas and Georgetown has been going on for almost 200 years. Despite the legal boundaries between the states, Venezuela considers Guyana-Essequibo part of its country.

According to the voting results, more than 10.5 million Venezuelans were in favor of the disputed territory becoming part of the Bolivarian Republic in the future. However, the Essequibo residents themselves are not eager to join Venezuela. Most of them consider themselves Guyanese and are used to communicating in English.

In the material REN TV We will tell you whether the century-old conflict between Venezuela and Guyana will end with a referendum and whether what is happening can result in a military conflict.

Carte blanche for Venezuela

Venezuela has held a vote on the future of the disputed Guyana-Essequibo region. The referendum ended on December 3, 2023. As a result, more than 10.5 million Venezuelans voted in support of the country’s claims to the Essequibo territory, said the head of the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, Elvis Amoroso.

During the voting, Venezuelans had to answer five questions that would determine Caracas’ policy towards Guyana-Essequibo. The referendum is considered consultative – it does not automatically give the right to include Guyana-Essequibo into Venezuela. However, according to experts, this gives the Caracas authorities carte blanche to get the territory they consider theirs by any means possible.

“We are ready to use our right to vote to reclaim what belongs to us historically, as evidenced by all the documents. Let us remember that this is an important day, this is a turning point in the claims of the Venezuelan public to the territory that belongs to Venezuela,” – said Foreign Minister of the Bolivarian Republic Ivan Gil Pinto.

Guyana-Essequibo occupies three-quarters of the territory of modern Guyana. The region is famous for oil and other natural resources, and its population reaches 280 thousand people. The dispute between Venezuela and Guyana began almost 200 years ago when Caracas broke free of colonial rule from Spain. Having become part of the new state of Gran Colombia, Venezuela gradually lost control over its borders. This allowed Guyana (at that time a British colony) to gain power over the Essequibo territory.

Despite the legal boundaries between states, Venezuela stubbornly considers Guyana-Essequibo part of its country. And on his maps he depicts it with shading.

“A matter of national pride”

In the run-up to the referendum, relations between Venezuela and Guyana became very tense. Many experts even talked about the beginning of a military conflict, especially considering that the Bolivarian Republic began to actively deploy its soldiers around the country.

“Let it rain, thunder and lightning, the consultative referendum will take place” – said Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

At the same time, the conflict escalated back in 2015, when several international oil-producing corporations came to the territory of Guyana-Essequibo. It was they who discovered 11 billion barrels of proven reserves of black gold there.

“I don’t know a single Venezuelan who doesn’t consider Essequibo part of their country. Both people who support Maduro and people who don’t like Maduro think so. It’s a matter of national pride,” — said Yegor Lidovskoy, general director of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center.

Guyana seeks support from Britain and US

In Guyana itself, Venezuela’s claims are viewed with caution. In mid-November 2023, representatives of the country even appealed to the International Court of Justice with a request to stop the referendum in Caracas. However, the vote still took place. Guyanese greeted him with noisy protests under the slogan “Essequibo belongs to us.”

By the way, the residents of the disputed territory themselves do not particularly want to become part of Venezuela. Most of them consider themselves Guyanese citizens and speak English.

Meanwhile, Georgetown is actively seeking outside support. On November 27, the American military arrived in the South American country. On November 28, negotiations were held between military representatives of Guyana and the United States. America has already stated that Venezuela must respect the territorial sovereignty of Guyana. In addition, Britain is in constant contact with Guyana, which expresses support for its former colony.

Apparently, Guyana is ready to host even a foreign military base on its territory. As the country’s Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo said, this step is necessary in order to protect national interests.

The escalation of the conflict between Georgetown and Caracas, of course, causes anxiety among the rest of the countries of the continent. Thus, Brazil has already announced the strengthening of the northern border, which it shares with Guyana and Venezuela.

Could a referendum end a century-long conflict?

Deputy Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Martynov said REN TVthat the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is unlikely to result in a serious military conflict.

“Currently, the internal situation in Venezuela is not very good. Moreover, the referendum served as a means of uniting the nation. And the nation in Venezuela is largely disunited, split. I don’t think that this will all end in some bloody events. This is unusual for Latin America, Usually disputes of this kind are resolved there peacefully – through a referendum,” – the expert believes.

Martynov noted that neighboring countries, primarily Brazil, which advocate the status quo and maintaining borders, could be a limiting factor.

“I think the countries bordering Venezuela and Guyana will not allow such a dramatic scenario. Over time, the situation will calm down. Perhaps there will be another referendum. The residents of Venezuela are one thing, but, accordingly, a referendum is also needed in Guyana. But, as far as I know, Essequibo people are not going to join anyone.” – he concluded.

What will happen in the event of armed escalation?

Nevertheless, the risk of military escalation between Venezuela and Guyana exists, believes Yegor Lidovskoy. For example, Georgetown could bring American troops into Guyana or establish a military base on disputed territory. Venezuela will most likely regard such steps as a provocation, the expert said.

In the event of an armed conflict, the conflict can be resolved in a few days – without the participation of third countries, political scientists are convinced. The Venezuelan army, according to them, is considered one of the strongest on the continent. It consists of 123 thousand fighters. Meanwhile, Guyana has only 3.5 thousand soldiers.

However, Guyana is counting on US military assistance, noted political scientist Igor Pshenichnikov. According to him, Washington is closely monitoring what is happening and is ready to respond in the event of armed escalation.

“The United States can act with the help of military mercenaries of insignificant Latin American countries. Those that the United States would not mind sacrificing. Such a country could be, for example, Peru, where representatives of right-wing parties are in power,” – Lidovskoy added.

Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua, in turn, can support Venezuela. The countries of the Arab world, including Turkey, will most likely side with Caracas, political scientists concluded.