Emergency aid to Ukraine. How can the West prevent Putin’s missile terrorism?

While Russia celebrated the holidays with one of the largest air raids of the war, Ukrainians spent much of the New Year holidays in bomb shelters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched at least 500 missiles and drones at targets inside Ukraine over a five-day period starting December 29. This is seen as an indication of the Kremlin’s intentions in the coming weeks.

This new wave of major air strikes confirmed the worst fears of many in Ukraine, who had long speculated that Russia was stockpiling missiles for use in a new winter bombing campaign. Moscow is believed to have significantly increased domestic missile production as part of the country’s transition to a war economy, with more than 100 long-range missiles being produced each month. Speaking on New Year’s Day, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to “intensify” Russia’s air war against Ukraine.

Last winter, Russia attacked Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in an attempt to force the country to surrender. Although this five-month bombing campaign led to widespread power outages across Ukraine, it ultimately failed to break the Ukrainian spirit and instead served to strengthen the country’s will to resist Russian occupation.

By contrast, Putin’s new bombing campaign appears to have a broader focus; The latest attacks target targets including military and defense industries, as well as residential buildings, hospitals and shopping malls. Increased attacks on civilians have already led to dozens of deaths. This has increased speculation that Russia is trying to demoralize Ukrainians while also weakening Ukraine’s ability to produce the weapons and ammunition needed to support the country’s war effort.

Russia’s immediate goal may be to suppress Ukraine’s limited air defense capabilities. While Ukraine has managed to significantly strengthen its air defense systems since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly two years ago, Kiev remains heavily dependent on partners for the supply of interceptor missiles and other types of munitions. With further US and EU military aid currently in doubt due to political obstacles, the danger of Ukraine depleting its existing stocks of air defense munitions in the coming weeks is very real.

The consequences of the collapse of Ukraine’s air defenses would be catastrophic. Ukrainian forces have so far exceeded all expectations and have incorporated a wide range of air defense systems provided by the country’s international partners. This allowed them to shoot down an average of 70 to 80 percent of incoming drones and missiles. But if ammunition stocks become critically low in late January or early February, senior officials in Kiev may be forced to concentrate limited resources, leaving much of the country virtually defenseless. In such cases, a wave of Russian air strikes could easily lead to the deaths of thousands of civilians.

Authorities in Kiev appear to be aware of the looming threat and have been actively seeking additional air defense support in recent months. In December, the country received a second Patriot system from Germany and also received a commitment from Japan to supply Patriot missiles to the United States, which could allow the United States to send additional missiles to Ukraine. After the latest Russian bombing, Zelensky met with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Previously, Britain responded to Russia’s major air strike on December 29 by confirming that 200 more air defense missiles had been delivered to Ukraine.

While officials in Kiev welcome the support, they also acknowledge that much will depend on the outcome of the current political stalemate in Washington; Here, progress on a major new aid package for Ukraine has stalled as attention turns to the US presidential election. If Congress cannot unblock the multibillion-dollar package, the Ukrainian military will face a number of serious problems, including in the field of air defense.

Russian officials, meanwhile, hope that delays and disruptions in Western aid, as well as large stockpiles of missiles and drones, will make Ukrainian cities increasingly vulnerable to attack. In recent weeks, there has been a sense of growing confidence in power, with Putin vowing to fight until victory and the Russian Foreign Ministry declaring that Ukraine must be “completely denazified and demilitarized” (Kremlin code for the country’s complete surrender and subjugation). is clearly visible.

Ultimately, even a dramatic increase in the supply of air defense systems and ammunition to Ukraine will not be enough to end Russia’s terrorist bombing campaign. To effectively counter the threat posed by Russian drones and missiles, Ukraine needs its own long-range missiles and the political green light from its partners to strike launch sites and related targets on Russian territory. As long as Western leaders insist on limiting Ukraine’s ability to retaliate against Russia, Ukrainian commanders will have to wage air warfare with a shield, not a sword.

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors. The author is responsible for the data published in the “Opinions” section.

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