According to some analysts, Europe may be on the verge of a new gas crisis, as EU countries remain highly vulnerable after the energy war with Russia in 2022.
Natural gas prices in Europe rose 28 percent on August 9, 2023, although the level of “blue fuel” reserves in underground tanks is now close to 90 percent. Reason: Possible strikes by workers at three major liquefied gas plants in Australia, Bloomberg reports.
Thus, futures at the TTF headquarters in the Netherlands rose to 39.8 euros per megawatt-hour (about $460 per thousand cubic metres). The increase in prices continued on the morning of 10 August and prices rose another 3%, up to 41 euros.
Futures are reported to have exceeded 40 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time since June, although the cost is still more than 80% lower than the unprecedented level reached in August 2022.
Employees of the companies Chevron and Woodside Energy Group in Australia voted to approve the strikes at the Northwest Shelf, Wheatstone and Gorgon businesses, according to the agency’s publication. Strikes could begin as early as next week, in line with work regulations.
“The situation highlights the importance of Australian LNG for global energy security, despite the potential for disruptions to Australian gas supply to cause price increases even in Europe,” Sol Cavonic, Sydney-based energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group, told reporters.
At the same time, industrial strikes are expected to halt exports of all Australian factories for two months. Against this background, gas futures in Europe could reach 50 euros by the end of summer.
“Where prices go will really depend on whether and how long this strike lasts,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore.
At the same time, some analysts are confident that a prolonged strike will lead Asian buyers to seek LNG and compete more aggressively with Europe for supply.
Recall that in late spring 2023, the cost of natural gas in Europe fell below 25 euros per megawatt hour (about $280 per thousand cubic meters) – the lowest level in the last two years.
Meanwhile, preparations for the next warm-up season continue under war conditions in Ukraine. Thus, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), our country wants to accumulate 14 billion cubic meters of “blue fuel” to survive the winter. As of the end of July, 10.5 billion cubic meters were concentrated in underground storage facilities in Ukraine.
Source: Focus
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