Is this a matter of mobilization? Experts revealed the main reasons for the demographic disaster in Ukraine

NYT writes that reducing the age of those taking action will affect the birth rate in Ukraine, as this could threaten the Ukrainian economy.

“Experts believe that in Ukraine, as in most of the former republics, the number of young people aged 20 is small. During the deep economic crisis and depression in the 90s, the birth rate decreased significantly. The recruitment of more men at the age of 20 into the military reduces the birth rate,” the report says.

They note that, given possible war losses, enlisting more men at age 20 would risk reducing the number of Ukrainians born in this junior generation, which would lead decades later to a reduction in the number of working-age men doing conscription and endangering security. and the country’s economy in the future.

How many Ukrainians were born in 2023?

According to data from the Ministry of Justice, 187,387 babies were born in Ukraine in 2023.

The largest number of newborns were recorded in Kiev – almost 20 thousand children.

16.6 thousand children were born in the Lviv region, 14.4 thousand in the Dnepropetrovsk region, 13.7 thousand in the Odessa region, 10.8 thousand in the Kiev region, 9.5 thousand in the Rivne region and 9 thousand 450 in Transcarpathia.

According to Opendatabot statistics, the birth rate decreased by 9% compared to 2022, when 206,032 babies were born. In just the first year of the occupation, the number of newborns dropped sharply by 25%. For comparison, from 2010 to 2013, approximately 500 thousand children were born annually in Ukraine.

In general, there has been a decrease in the birth rate in Ukraine since 2013. From then on until the start of a full-scale war, 6-7% fewer children were born each year.

Fertility in Ukraine: how has it changed from year to year?

Not just mobilization: What are the main causes of the demographic crisis in Ukraine?

Economist and financial analyst Alexey Kushch explained Focus He added that there were preconditions for the demographic crisis in Ukraine and the age of mobilization played an indirect role here.

“There are structural prerequisites for the demographic crisis in Ukraine, we also have our own characteristics: permanent economic crises, the absence of a positive development scenario, the absence of social state support for the birth of children affect. The state does not create serious social capital for mothers who give birth. After the birth of children, women are not given any assistance in their socialization, that is, their return to work, and there is no support from the state in raising children. Plus, massive emigration from the country, which was attributed to economic factors before the war and now to military factors. Before the war, people were migrating for economic reasons; Now millions of people are leaving the country because of the war. Therefore, lowering the conscription age may further increase the emigration of young people from the country whose mothers will try to take them abroad. In this context, mobilization can influence the factor in a certain way only indirectly,” said the expert.

According to him, Ukraine is not experiencing a demographic crisis, but a demographic disaster.

“A crisis is, for example, a 5 percent decrease in population. And our population has decreased by almost 1.5 times since 2013. This is no longer a crisis, it is a disaster. The fertility rate (0.7) is one of the lowest in the world. The birth rate has fallen to the level of random births. For example, more than 300 thousand children were born in our country before the war, but now there are 70 thousand. The birth rate has fallen by almost half. “This is no longer a crisis, but a demographic disaster on a national scale,” he added.

Economist Anatoly Amelin, director of economic programs at the Ukrainian Future Institute, confirms that mobilization age is not the reason for the low birth rate in Ukraine.

He also listed three main factors that directly affect the demographic situation:

• unpredictability,
• lack of ability to plan for the future,
• Limitation of financial resources in the absence of government policies on compensation and incentives.

“When a couple gives birth, their expenses increase. The state does not have an incentive and compensation policy, so women who want to give birth are left in a dilemma: They will either work, be comfortable and live well, or they will lose their rights.” increase their income and expenses. Therefore, the main reason why people do not want to give birth is the economic problem. Unpredictability, financial problems and lack of government policy to support such families. “What the state offers is not encouraging and the mobilization does not confront this problem in any way,” he said.

Meanwhile, according to the UN, more than 6 million citizens have left Ukraine since the beginning of the comprehensive Russian occupation. Reuters wrote about this, citing the UN Refugee Agency.

Most refugees entered the EU through the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. More than 3.3 million people have crossed the border into Poland, and the Polish government estimates that about half of them may remain in the country for the long term.

Previously Focus He wrote that according to the survey results, more than half of Ukrainians (53%) stated that there was a decrease in their income, and 30% of them stated that their income decreased significantly. 18 percent of Ukrainians said they had lost their job within a year, and more than a third of those surveyed had no savings.