Blackout programs are returning: What did the attack on Ukrainian energy lead to and what to expect next?

NEW ATTACKS. PREPARE FOR DISCONNECTIONS

Last week, something happened that everyone was psychologically prepared for but hoped would not happen: Major attacks on the energy system. Following the carefully planned attack on 22 March (and it did), smaller-scale attacks were carried out. several days in a row.

The energy system suffered serious damage and losses. For example, DTEK has been reporting that half of its capacity has been lost for a long time. Significant loss of part of DneproHES capacity. In fact, there were serious losses in balancing capacities. Losses were suffered mainly on the front line, but other areas also suffered serious damage and loss of power.

Gas infrastructure was also hit. And immediately the information attack will target the reliability of non-resident gas storage at Ukrainian storage facilities.

1. I have previously written that attacks on energy infrastructure should be expected before next winter, but I thought that these attacks would come in the summer, when the energy system is in the active repair campaign phase, and there could potentially be a capacity shortage. . The enemy decided to take action earlier. On the one hand, their logic may be due to expectations of the exhaustion of our air defense, given the delay in aid from the United States, they decided not to wait for the resumption of active deliveries of air defense systems and missiles to them. On the other hand, the period from the Russian elections to the inauguration of the new US President was a period in which tensions were expected to increase (in short, Biden is bad for the Kremlin, but Trump is even worse because he is unpredictable and could be even worse). radical in pressure). Therefore, the enemy wants to freeze us until a possible change of administration in Washington.
2. The massive loss of capacity makes us highly dependent on imports. And of course it significantly reduces any prospects for export. It cannot be ruled out that the government will revert to an export ban if the situation worsens. If it takes too long or too soon, it will be another blow to power companies that lack the funds to carry out repairs. And of course, the need for repairs increases with each bombardment.
3. We are very close to the closure schedules. Now we are more or less stable due to imports. However, most consumers in Kharkov and Odessa are still without power, and when they are connected, the total consumption will increase and the risk of shortages, and therefore the schedule, will be greater. This is not to mention the risk of additional damage as a result of shelling. However, the implementation of lockdowns depends largely on ourselves – whether we can engage in responsible consumption during peak hours. It is worth equalizing consumption as much as possible during the day, shifting some of it to the night and not turning on powerful electrical appliances at the same time, especially during peak load hours. But if you or your neighbors do not do this, shutdown programs such as emergency programs can easily cope with this quickly, without unnecessary conversations and persuasion. But there will be no comfort.
4. How to solve the problem of scarcity? We need distributed generation, semi-peak and peak – high and low power – distributed across the country. As well as the development of networks, including low-voltage ones, to increase the reliability of the system, accordingly, it will be more difficult to disable it by missile attacks. Maybe now it is not worth dreaming about future gas export volumes (and the head of Naftogaz, Alexei Chernyshov, recently talked about this), but it is worth dreaming about how much will be needed to ensure the functioning of decentralized production. Talking about how our exports will grow day by day seems like stubbornly ignoring the elephant in the room. It is clear that exports are important for the economy. But let’s not make any predictions and take into account all risks to the gas transport system and storage facilities in the context of potential large-scale bombardment. Reliability and uninterruptible power supply come first.
5. To implement the decision to develop a new, small, decentralized generation, we have almost everything except the incentives for the emergence of such a generation. Administrative methods unfortunately (or fortunately) will not work here. This will only begin to emerge once the economic incentives to invest in such capacity and infrastructure emerge. This is particularly relevant to the debt problem and price constraints in the market.

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors. The author is responsible for the data published in the “Opinions” section.

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