Five years of war. Is Ukraine ready for long wars and what changes should we expect?

The war in Ukraine could last another five years. Neither side is ready to give up and find a way out of the impasse. The Economist writes about this issue, citing conversations between European officials. The publication notes that the West’s military potential is running out and replenishment of arsenals is limited.

At the beginning of September 2023, a similar scenario was announced by the Bloomberg agency, which has already been going on for six to seven years. At the time, citing a senior official from one of the G7 countries in Europe, it was said that allies should plan financially to continue supporting Ukraine in conflicts that will last much longer than expected.

“This is much longer than many officials expected at the beginning of this year, but the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in recent months has tempered expectations,” the report said.

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg officially stated that the war in Ukraine could be prolonged and called for preparations for this.

Ukrainian officials do not comment on such statements, but are extremely cautious about possible predictions. The situation is obvious, it is impossible not to react because the public wants to hear and understand perspectives. Also, the “two-three weeks” tactic no longer works, we need to start a new dialogue with the public. The same Western media that systematically publish episodes of betrayal also adds to the pessimistic mood. By the way, in the same The Economist there was an article by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, from which we can conclude that the situation in the war is a stalemate.

How will political life change if the war continues for another five years?

According to Vladimir Fesenko, chairman of the board of directors of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research, the war dates announced by The Economist have nothing to do with the forecasts. Today, there is no method to predict when the war will end. It is unclear what mechanisms and criteria they used to derive this figure.

“In my opinion, Putin is prolonging the war until the end of the US presidential elections, that is, in February 2025. Then it will be clear whether the current president will remain or a new one will come. But so is this.” I cannot guarantee that the situation will change after the elections, that negotiations will begin or that one of the parties will win. “Another possible scenario is the transition to trench warfare, which is now the dominant criterion.” Focus.

Political scientist Igor Reiterovich believes that the prediction of a long war is extremely negative for Ukraine. If this indeed turns out to be true, we should expect the war to take on different intensities and the country to face major political changes.

“At the same time, another five-year war will certainly raise the issue of holding elections in Ukraine, which will redraw the political map. There will be a demand from the public for new political projects that will offer an alternative to the current situation. If the authorities show that the latter cannot win this war, the public will “We need to understand how he will be prepared to accept some of the concessions that will have to be made,” he says. Focus.

Reiterovich points out that the war in the next five years will lead to huge demographic losses; None of those who have left since the beginning of the large-scale occupation in February 2022 will return to Ukraine.

Positional and information warfare in Ukraine

It is not yet possible to predict what the nature of hostilities will be if the war continues for the next five years. Only the military command has a complete picture and plans. But what remains constant is that Russia’s resources in Ukraine are incomparable; the enemy has more opportunities for a prolonged military offensive.

Important

“We must be objective, we cannot withstand five years of war, Ukraine does not have a lot of human resources, equipment and weapons. In Russia this potential is many times greater, the Kremlin has done everything – the main thing is to win, and what happens next does not concern them. For next year “The budget allocated to the security bloc and the army has already been increased to 105 billion euros, while spending on the social sector has decreased significantly.” Focus military expert Ivan Stupak.

Military analyst, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petr Chernik believes that all statements about prolonging the war to five, seven or more years are a well-organized information campaign by Moscow in the West. He is sure that if the war is prolonged, it will continue to be a war as it is now, and nothing will change.

“The Economist is particularly worrying, despite its authority; through it a lot of disinformation has been spread against our country. It is extremely important for us, now and for the next five years, not to spread treachery on sensitive issues,” he explains. Focus Blueberries.

According to Stupak, the war could develop into a positional war with local combat operations, but with less intensity, such as in the region of Operation Joint Forces in 2017-2021.

“For this period, it is necessary to increase the production of unmanned systems and conditionally install drones in every field. Today, the effectiveness of drones is much higher than even artillery, and the price is much lower. There are no bullets, so they need to be replaced with UAVs. According to my calculations, only “On November 13, approximately 80 percent of enemy equipment was destroyed using FPV UAVs,” he says.

What awaits the Ukrainian economy if the war continues?

Economist Vitaly Shapran, former member of the board of directors of the National Bank of Ukraine, recalls that at the very beginning of the war, our partners’ intelligence services assessed the possibilities of Ukraine resisting the Russian occupation for up to 2 weeks; , the prediction did not come true. It is Russia, not us, that has to think about how to fight for another five years. A significant part of state reserves is frozen in the West, hopes of paying for energy exports in national currencies have not been realized, the population is forced to tighten its belts more and more, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to explain the meaning of this war. . And Moscow does not have a reserve of foreign support like Ukraine.

Important

“Let’s be frank, economically we could not finance this war on our own, but the reliable strength of our partners greatly helped stabilize the economy and finances, despite catastrophic monetary and fiscal mistakes. “Officials in some places,” he said. Focus Chapran.

Oleg Pendzin, Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club, points out that Ukraine is extremely dependent on macro-financial and military-technical assistance from partners. Without all this, social spending, financing and support for the military will cease and the standard of living will decline. This dependence is due to political reasons and is understandable, given the risks from election results in Ukraine’s partner countries.

“The Ukrainian economy can no longer withstand this. Look at the state budget for 2024, the expenditure side is 3.2 trillion hryvnia, the income side is 1.7 trillion. The 1.5 trillion deficit needs to be covered by foreign borrowing, and this is about 20% of GDP. “If this does not happen, we will have to print additional money, which will lead to increased inflation and a decrease in the hryvnia exchange rate.” Focus.

Important

According to Shapran, the economic situation is not as pessimistic as it seems at first glance. Objective external factors: exchange rate stable, NBU interest rate included. is decreasing under the pressure of the expert community, unemployment is minimal, there is even a shortage of some specialties, GDP growth indicators have improved, new industries are emerging due to the war (for example, the production of unmanned aerial vehicles). In fact, there is a problem with funding and an unpleasant dependence on our external partners who run their own budget processes; This requires Kiev’s patience and respect for the “bureaucratic ballet” in the Congress, the Senate and the European Commission and the European Parliament.

“Strategically, there are funds for economic support of Ukraine. Moreover, we do not need funds from American and European taxpayers; the Russian Federation has state assets of $ 392.5 billion frozen in the West. Approximately the same amount is kept immobile in the private sector ” Russian accounts and financial intelligence continue to search for these assets, including unofficial funds of Russian special services. This is quite enough for a very long-term support to Ukraine in terms of budget subsidies for the same social payments, as well as the restoration of Ukraine Another thing is that our European partners are trying to replace this resource with loans, but Finland, for example, advocated the seizure of these assets for Ukraine, and in the United States the relevant Congressional committee has already approved the seizure of Russia’s sovereign assets in the USA directly in favor of Ukraine rewriting bill HR4175,” explains the economist.

To provide access to these resources, Ukraine needs to: strengthen the fight against corruption, especially in the public procurement department and in the tax system, create an effective and transparent system for the distribution of humanitarian aid and reconstruction funds, as well as take into account the needs of new industries and industries encroached by combat logistics routes field economic reforms.

If we talk about Ukrainians who received temporary protection in the EU, conditions need to be created for the return of these 4.2 million people not only out of patriotism, but also for economic reasons.