Without unnecessary illusions. What will Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky talk about?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on February 24, 2023, “Ukraine would very much like China to be in favor of a just world.” Over the past year, the Chinese leader has repeatedly stressed that he wants to meet with Xi Jinping. “It will be in the interest of the security of our states and the world,” said the President of Ukraine. And even more – Kiev has repeatedly asked for at least one phone call between Zelensky and Xi, but so far the requests have remained unanswered.

Recently, however, the WSJ reported that an online meeting could be held, citing informed sources. And this will be Xi Jinping’s second meeting with President Zelensky during his presidency, and the first since the launch of a full-scale Russian invasion.

The war in Ukraine through the eyes of China

“China does not see Ukraine subjectively, and this is evident from its behavior in recent years, especially during the full-scale occupation of the Russian Federation,” he says. Focus Artur Kharitonov, President of the Liberal Democratic Union of the Ukrainian Non-Governmental Organization. “In fact, he objects that Russia is not attacking Ukraine, that he does not even call war a war, and that NATO is fighting with the United States against Russia on the territory of our country.”

And even more – the expert suggests that the war in Ukraine is “interesting for China.”

“For many reasons,” explains Kharitonov, he can influence all political decisions in Russia and actually see it as his colony. It diverts the attention of the West from China itself. My colleagues at the University of South Korea say that Xi saw the war in Ukraine as Stalin looked at the war in Korea at a time when all efforts were focused on countering the Soviet Union and China in Korea. And Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and other Central and Eastern European countries very quickly came under Soviet occupation.”

Important

This is the first. Second, China managed to adapt to the war in Ukraine a year later. It buys cheap Russian energy, increases Russia’s dependence and at the same time strengthens its position in the Russian market. According to Chinese data cited by the WSJ, in 2022, trade between Moscow and Beijing reached $190 billion, up nearly 29% from the previous year (25 times less between Ukraine and China). While Russia’s oil and gas sales to Europe fell, China became a major buyer. Russia also began to actively use the Chinese yuan currency. In fact, Russia continues to exist under the pressure of sanctions with the support of China.

Now China is even ready to hold off on trade matters temporarily due to closed trade routes with the West. And when it is heard from Beijing (and when this is outlined in the so-called “Resolution of the Ukrainian crisis” plan) that it is necessary to “open the roads”, “secure supply chains” – this means that it is necessary. Open a railroad through Ukraine and Russia, drive Chinese goods to Europe during the war.

China’s position is extremely cynical, and today the Ukrainian government and Bankova understand this. It’s just that everyone is trying to moderate China and maintain the status quo, but they are not having much influence,” concludes Kharitonov.

China is a negotiator

Meanwhile, Kiev is waiting for a call from Beijing, the Chinese leader is meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where he is on a three-day “friendship and cooperation visit.” The 69-year-old Xi’s visit to Russia was his first since he took over the presidency of China for the third time. And already the fortieth personal meeting of the two heads of state.

Natalya Plaksienko-Butyrskaya, an expert on East Asian affairs and foreign policy master, said, “China is now trying to be a peacemaker and is proposing a peace plan. resolving the conflict should at least listen to both sides, but first Xi went to Russia, where he talked about peace and war, and Ukraine. He managed to unite the formula “There is no Ukraine without Ukraine” among his western partners. At these moments, the leaders of China and Russia are talking behind Ukraine, of course Ukraine is not desired. At the same time, of course, China is a global player. It claims to be a strong global power. Now everything is one-sided. It seems: China is trying to enter into negotiations and declares its neutrality, although it is clear that it supports Russia “.

Recall that after a one-year hiatus from events in Ukraine, on February 24, China showed a document entitled “The Position of China on the Political Resolution of the Ukrainian Crisis”. The article, point by point, called for a political solution to the conflict and an end to unilateral sanctions against the Russian Federation, and warned Moscow against escalating the conflict with the help of nuclear weapons. In Ukraine and in the West, such proposals were quite skeptical, since some points may be contrary to the interests of Ukraine. For example, about an immediate ceasefire – a position that is now beneficial for Russia. Or about “preventing the Cold War mentality”. And about NATO. In other words, according to China’s logic, Ukraine should not join the Alliance, but should be in a non-bloc status. Experts noted that the document resembles a Chinese vision, not a peace plan, and that, according to Beijing, this document should first of all improve China’s image and help Russia.

“The Chinese peace plan is a pro-Russian peace plan,” says Artur Kharitonov. It turns out that it needs to be negotiated. he area. This is what Putin wants. Ukraine wants to explain to Xi the necessity of our pro-Ukrainian peace formula.

Ukraine Issues: Nuclear and Food Security

Frankly, Ukraine and China don’t have many common interests at the moment. Although Ukrainian officials plan to address at least two issues considered a priority for China in a meeting with Xi.

• The first is nuclear security. Beijing continues to warn Russia not to use nuclear weapons.
• The second is food security. China is giving hints that these supply chains need to be reinstated.

The fact that Plaksienko-Butyrskaya mentions them in her position on the “Solution of the Ukrainian crisis” means that she admitted them. However, the Ukrainian “peace formula” voiced by the President is also mentioned. Zelensky: With Xi and the food crisis, Ukraine hopes, at least at certain points, to involve China in the implementation of its ideas.”

“China is very interested in buying Ukrainian grain and has been aggressively pursuing its policy throughout the year,” Kharitonov continues, hiding it in cellars. From where? Here the answer is simple – always prepare for battle and make strategic stockpiles. “

On nuclear security, it is known that Ukraine’s Western partners, especially the USA and the EU, demanded behind the scenes confidence in China when Putin began to openly threaten nuclear weapons. Frankly, Ukraine wanted China to be more active in this area and more. For example, it is important that the IAEA ensured the withdrawal of the Russian army from the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

“There is a nuance in nuclear security,” continues Kharitonov, “according to the information we have received from British investigators, a year ago China demanded not to hand over aviation to Ukraine because Russia would not use nuclear weapons. It’s hard to imagine what China will demand now so that Russia doesn’t use nuclear weapons.”

Another issue that Ukraine would like to discuss with China is preventing the supply of weapons from China to Russia. Russia is particularly interested in 152 mm caliber shells and ammunition, China can produce them, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and MLRS.

This is one of the reasons why there are news that the US is forcing Beijing to negotiate with Kiev, so that the Chinese leader, as they say, sees firsthand the human cost of Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine. President Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, recently said it was important for Xi to talk not only with Putin but also with Zelensky to “hear directly not only the Russian but also Ukraine’s perspective” on the conflict.

We hope this continues to deter them from choosing to provide lethal aid to Russia.” But if Chinese weapons are found in Ukraine, sanctions will be imposed on China.

Now experts point out that Ukraine’s activities in China are generally related to the international position of this country: it is necessary to act where the window of opportunity is open. Approximately the same position can be seen from the United States. Washington still has contacts with Beijing, even though China staged provocations like a spy bubble and then Foreign Minister Blinken’s visit was cancelled. what to prove The US-China meetings are at different levels.

In general, China hid behind the neutrality of a pro-Russian character for a long time, helped Russia and said that it was on the side of justice. The world is ready to give China a chance to play its positive role in bringing peace to Ukraine. Therefore, the possibility of a meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Zelensky, albeit online, is becoming more and more likely.