How many refugees from Ukraine settled in different countries of Europe, and what do they give to the host states – a burden on the budget or an incentive for economic development?
5.3-6.2 million Ukrainians were left out of Ukraine because of the war. Such conclusions, based on data from a variety of sources, were made by the authors of the study “Refugees from Ukraine: return intentions, impact on the Ukrainian economy and public policy recommendations”, recently presented at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES).
About 1.5 million Ukrainian citizens are likely to be in Russia. We are talking about forcibly deported people, including children, from temporarily occupied territories.
In other countries, according to different scenarios, there are the following numbers of Ukrainians by the end of 2022:
- optimistic scenario: 3.8 million of which adults – 1.83 million, children – 1.97 million;
- medium scenario: 4.25 million, including 2.1 million adults, 2.25 million children;
- pessimistic scenario: 4.7 million, of which 2.36 million are adults and 2.54 million are children.
About 3.8-4.7 million Ukrainians (48% of adults and 51% of children) took the following countries:
- Poland: 38.4%;
- Germany: 19.5%;
- Czech Republic: 12%;
- Italy: 5.6%;
- France: 2.0%;
- Romania: 2.0%;
- Slovakia: 2.0%;
- others: 18.5%.
The study’s authors argue that Germany provides Ukrainians with more benefits, such as social benefits and housing. Unemployed Ukrainians in Germany receive about 400 euros per month, and 285-376 euros per month for children, depending on age. Persons with disabilities have the right to receive payment from social services. A significant portion of refugees are compensated for their accommodation costs by local authorities. Respectively, 89.7% of the respondents from Germany do not have any problems in meeting their basic needs. By the way, in Poland there are only 43.3%. In this country, Ukrainians receive about 100 euros per month for children.
The ratio of expenditures on Ukrainian refugees to the GDP of the host countries is as follows:
- Poland: 1.5 million Ukrainians applied for temporary protection / 1% of GDP;
- Germany: over 1 million / 0.11% of GDP;
- Czech Republic: 462 thousand / 0.8% of GDP;
- Italy: 161k / 0.04% of GDP.
Because the host states allocate their budgets to Ukrainian refugees, Ukrainians may at times encounter an ambiguous attitude from the local population. The negative background is exacerbated by inflation in the EU, especially rising gas prices in connection with the situation in Ukraine, as well as competition with Ukrainians in the labor market and general war fatigue.
“Not all, but in principle there are aggressive people like ours. They believe that we are crashing their economy. Many of us believe that there are, that we need a lot of help” study quote forced immigrant from Ukraine, who is in Poland.
However, in the study of the National Bank of Ukraine “The Impact of Ukrainian Immigrants on the Economies of Recipient Countries”, the positive impact of refugees from Ukraine on host countries is generally mentioned.
“We estimated that a certain short-term fiscal burden, especially for EU countries, is around 30-37 billion euros. The amount is quite substantial, but generally around 0.2-0.23 of the EU’s GDP.” Online discussion of research by Andriy Pyshny, Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine. v In the long run, the presence of Ukrainians in the European Union markets, both as labor and consumers, will have a positive impact.“.
Pyshny notes that the presence of internally displaced people from Ukraine compensates for recession risks to some extent and can help prevent recession in some countries. After all, millions of fugitives abroad are stimulating consumer markets and making up for staff shortages.
“Eurozone workforce increased by 0.2-0.8% thanks to the participation of Ukrainians. In absolute terms, this is 0.3-1.3 million people. And this is an invaluable asset for the economy of the host countries.“, – finishing Andrey Pyshny.
Integration of Ukrainian immigrants into local labor markets means additional taxes paid to the budget of the host country. The NBU research cites the example of Poland, where working Ukrainians have paid 10 billion zloty ($2.4 billion) in taxes since the start of a large-scale war, according to estimates by the Center for Migration Studies at the University of Warsaw.
In addition, Ukrainians fleeing the war also contribute to the GDP of the host countries. “Under other unchanged conditions, thanks to the contribution of Ukrainian immigrants, the production of goods and services in Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic in 2026 will be 2.2-2.3% higher than in the baseline scenario without immigration in Germany – 0.6-0 , 65%“, – noted in the work of the NBU.
Meanwhile, for Ukraine the effect will be the opposite. As noted in the CES study, the total annual losses of the Ukrainian economy due to labor output and declining consumption,:
- optimistic scenario: 2.55% of GDP;
- medium scenario: 5.15% of GDP;
- pessimistic scenario: 7.71% of GDP.
Accordingly, the pace of recovery of the Ukrainian economy will depend on how long the forced migrants stay abroad and how many return home.
Previously Focus He spoke of the shortage of goods and services faced by Ukrainians after the start of a full-scale invasion.
Source: Focus
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