political bug. Why is “Putin’s multiple moves” a myth?

A little bit about Putin, because the legends still live.

“Putin could not have been unaware of Prigozhin’s revolt.”

“Putin could not have been unaware that the Azovites would be released.”

“Putin wouldn’t know …”.

I’m speaking briefly. Putin is still seen not as a Thanos-level super villain, but at least as a competent villain who skilfully manages politics. And who controls everything, and whose orders the entire Russian sector carries out.

NO. This is not it.

Putin is a political bug who, by the circumstances, is lucky enough to lead a country with great potential and he’s damned it. There is no point in turning him into a talented politician or a sufficiently knowledgeable person.

Had he been competently informed, he would never have started the kind of war he started.

The difference between Putin and most dictators is that he did not win any competitive elections or come to power through a military rebellion or revolution. He came to power as a suitable and understandable figure for all. It’s like a cool (from a professional perspective) political tech project.

It wasn’t hard to take advantage of the (non-authored) reforms of the ’90s and early 2000s and the wild rise in resource prices. And Putin took advantage of that. Really talented people who made a deal with their own conscience worked for him. They built the media, a political system, and a perverted economy for him. Those who are themselves the beneficiaries of the regime and give the opportunities of Russia to a rather mediocre person.

Also, Putin was obviously lucky. Yes it does.

1. In the context of world politics. With the confidence of Americans and Europeans that after the collapse of the USSR the world calmed down and eventually the democracies won.
2. With the Russians, who traded their political rights with mediocre comfort, the opportunity to build a European country, for imperial resentment against the West (and then Ukraine).
3. With the Russian elite, who were content with the social contract of the arbitrating tsar and a system that allows you to earn money.
4. The Soviet legacy is huge in many ways. The de facto system of Soviet diplomacy, economic relations, military school and special services worked for him. And the resource money fed him. Although “talented” people like Lavrov or Shoigu are slowly killing these institutions.

Yes, “Putin’s multiple moves” is a myth. And we are faced not with a brilliant politician, but with an adventurer. And adventurers’ luck finally runs out.

Yes, Russia had the opportunity to build something grandiose. But Vladimir Putin chose chauvinism, resentment, corruption and dictatorship on an unprecedented scale as a small and miserable creature. And such a Russia built. Indeed, Russia is leaving its worst examples behind.

Such dictatorships are characterized by negative selection – and in the end, there were those around him who mainly proved his personal loyalty to him. But the problem is that the power of such a king (and Russia does not know any other form of government) is a shadow on the wall. It exists as long as everyone believes in his power. For the country and for the world.

Yes, I sincerely believe that Putin is the most successful political technology project in recent history. So the real mediocrity of a KGB colonel does not correspond to the image of himself and the world leader he created. And how long this image lasts is an indication of the favorable conditions and the quality of the project.

And for the last 16 months, the putty fell first. Then pieces of the wall began to crumble. And after Prigozhin’s rebellion, the process became irreversible. Yes, Putin’s only chance to save his reputation was to drown the rebellion in blood. Everything else is nonsense.

And now when our allies said they would deliver cluster munitions, when Erdogan freed the Azov people (i.e., dealt a powerful reputational blow to Putin in the context of negotiations for a grain deal), he signed an agreement on the production of drones in Turkey. Ukraine, when Russia itself constantly brags about the negotiations – it’s about the shortening of the shadow.

The illusion that Putin has created for the world is falling fast. The king is already almost naked. Of course, that doesn’t make our job any easier. Russia is still a country with potential. Although much less than before Putin (which is ironic), and much less than it was 16 months ago. This brings our victory closer.

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